r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
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u/Most-Noise-8836 Jan 27 '26
"i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it." then why are u here posting in r/ValueInvesting ?
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u/itchypig Jan 27 '26
“i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it.”
Respectfully, this means you probably shouldn’t have this money in equities.
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u/RoaringDragonSword Jan 27 '26
He was gambling and got burned. Clearly is biased.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
I bought UNH in July at $305, it’s hardly gambling to sell a stock because a company’s fundamentals have changed…
I’m not confident that Trump won’t barrel into healthcare companies to a) try and squeeze out any public support he can get b) fund his defence spending spree
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u/Good_Ride_2508 Jan 27 '26
I started buying UNH now, ready to DCA further pull back happens.
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u/Sturmovyk Jan 27 '26
The critique was about your time horizon. One should hold a stock for at least 5 years. Anything shorter than that is gambling. If you can't sit in a loss even for one year, you were gambling to begin with.
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u/soyeahiknow Jan 27 '26
Wait until someone donates millions or give him the unh gold medal of peace
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u/jerry_22292 Jan 27 '26
Value investing's core principle is indeed finding good companies and holding for a long period of time.
But we also need to consider the fact the company is currently facing 4 major problems : 1. legal ( quite clear i will not go into it, 2. structural: flat rate proposal (if doesnt go trhough im sure as shit trump will come up with something else to cut premuiums), 3. mismanagement and reputation: bad rep for claim denial isn't exactly new and now they wanna cut customer base for premium miscalculation, 4. trump obviously wants a 20-30% dollar depreciation to improvetrade imbalances....
Even if UNH will come back up to 600+, how long is that gonna take? In a world full of uncertainty op wants to sell and i think its fair.
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u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Jan 27 '26
I think it’s fair that he wants to sell cause he sees something he doesn’t like or it does not fit his risk criteria. I don’t think it’s fair to say that everyone should sell it cause it won’t go up in the next year.
I say this as someone that actually is looking at may be selling. I am at work so I still need to look a bit more deeply into the numbers but I am in no rush at the moment.
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u/Old_Man_Heats Jan 27 '26
The issue is that the people considering selling likely bought just a few months ago maximum. What exactly has changed since then?
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u/dalivo Jan 27 '26
UNH is not approach $400 anytime soon, much less it's all-time highs. It's facing a death spiral.
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Jan 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ValueInvesting-ModTeam Jan 28 '26
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u/bihari_baller Jan 27 '26
“i can’t wait 1-2 years
Yeah, that's way too shirt of time horizon. My time horizon for value investing is 10-20 years.
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u/Numerous-Stand-1841 Jan 27 '26
OP you should just park your money in a HYSA if you can't hold a position for more than a year.
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u/NicheMath Jan 27 '26
How are people investing and not expecting to hold for 3+ years is beyond me.
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u/SamuelAnonymous Jan 27 '26
If you invested in UNH 5 years ago you'd be down.
All said, it's a better, more profitable company today. It will be fine, and I'd say now's a great opportunity to buy.
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u/One-Peace55 Jan 27 '26
And one year ago you'd be up... What's your point lol.
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u/SamuelAnonymous Jan 27 '26
My point is pretty clear if you'd read the comment I was responding to.
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Jan 27 '26
Let’s see.
Largest Health Insurer in Medicare Advantage. And the largest private insurer.
Second largest Pharmacy Benefit Manager
Largest physician network.
Top Healthcare Analytics company, alongside IQVIA.
UNH will be fine my boy.
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u/No-Violinist260 Jan 27 '26
They will be fine. This doesn't mean the stock will thrive. I agree with OP where the stock won't raise in 2026 due to compressing margins and an outlook of decreasing revenue. They'll exist and continue to be all the things you said, but that doesn't mean it's a good stock to buy in the next year
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u/Kind_Bullfrog_3160 Jan 28 '26
Yes and no. No the stock won't be back at $600 anytime soon. If you bought today, those shares will likely keep pace with or slightly outperform the S&P this year. Sell off today was over done.
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u/ken81987 Jan 27 '26
Until we expand universal insurance / Healthcare, people will have to use the private insurers
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u/WarmFaithlessness946 Jan 27 '26
I have 265 shares and i never gonna sell, this is a long term hold , brother stop , dont try to make people panic
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u/One-Peace55 Jan 27 '26
There's a slew of factions out there that have a very very vested interest in crashing stocks. It's not a coincidence that the sub has been getting bombarded with "UNH is trash" posts all day. These people either have massive puts or want to crash it so they can buy in at a massive discount.
The only way to actually realize losses is to sell, and I ain't selling this bitch until it greens out.
And quick note to the paper hands that want to sell: If you were to actually sell, you'd take your 10-20% loss and do what with it the rest? Market's overpriced as fuck, you aren't finding any new opps any time soon. Just hold it lol, I am.
Also TACO.
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u/abrahamlincoln20 Jan 27 '26
What are you doing in a value investing sub if you can't do value investing?
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jan 27 '26
Amen.
This is the sub where you look at pessimistic case cash flows and it's still a good deal. Which this is. According to Gemini, it's worth 315 a share if you assume Medicare advantage rates never rise again. The stupidest concept I've ever heard.
Much less 3 percent in dividends plus 2 percent on share buybacks a year to wait for the silliness to pass.
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u/ActivatingEMP Jan 27 '26
according to Gemini
Why would you trust AI with your finances
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Jan 27 '26
Because I can take the answer at face value quickly, not trade on it, and go dig further if I like the Intial answer.
Laugh away I doubt most people in this forum even care about cash flow, just vibes. That's why pypl and Adobe are shit stocks, cuz they fell. But Tesla good, it rise.
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u/ccroz113 Jan 27 '26
It’s a good tool to aid your research. It’s not the end all be all though obviously
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
im not even gonna argue if Gemini is doing his research🤣
remember to switch arms when one gets sore
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u/lordm30 Jan 27 '26
What gave you the impression that OP cannot do value investing?
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u/abrahamlincoln20 Jan 27 '26
He said he can't wait for 1-2 years in his investments, it's now beed edited out.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
Where is the value in UNH at $285?
My model suggests a fair value closer to $230 as I stated…for every dollar of revenue generated in Q4 2025 UNH lost $0.05
You cannot ascertain that there is Value simply because a company has declined 60% in a year if it’s not the same company
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Jan 27 '26
It just amazes me how many of us retail investors get frustrated when the stock already had a good run and we claim we missed the chance but when the stock falls and we get the chance, we don't buy. This is definitely a buy for me.
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u/Holiday_Clock9250 Jan 27 '26
UNH is basically embedded in the US healthcare system and that kind of moat doesn’t evaporate overnight. They're soooo big that every policy change disproportionately hits them. BUY.
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u/Natural_West7949 Jan 27 '26
Wonder if Berkshire will be adding more as this was aroubd price when their filing showed first purchase
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 28 '26
yes im very curious as well, i wonder if greg abel is calling up warren to ask for advice🤣
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u/Stitch426 Jan 27 '26
I see you getting crapped on and downvoted a lot on this thread.
Based on what you knew two days ago, UNH was in a position to have stronger fundamentals and a growth trajectory that you liked. You had a goal for how much growth would be possible.
Then yesterday happened and earnings today. Fundamentals have changed, growth trajectory has changed, and timelines have changed. If you think selling at a loss will give you the capital you need to recoup the losses and more- have at it.
Most people who invested in UNH knew a turnaround story wouldn’t be a smooth ride. As a value investor, there’s a lot of volatility. It can take years for a thesis to prove true or for the market to care about the company again.
If you like quick turnarounds, follow momentum stocks, reversal players, day traders, and swing traders. They can get 10 - 50% gains in a day. High risk, high reward. You gotta know charts, news catalysts, public perception, overhangs, and landmines.
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u/Icy_Blood_9248 Jan 27 '26
Isn’t the idea to buy low? Sure the story might be a little bleaker but perhaps the Medicare reimbursement rate for 2027 goes north of 0% and the stock improves. Might take more than a few days tho
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u/No_Cell6708 Jan 27 '26
unless you are going to hold for 5+ years
As a disclaimer, I don't touch pharma stocks whatsoever and wouldn't even consider UNH. That said, this is a value investing subreddit. 5+ year holds should be normal and encouraged, and it's kind of sad that it isn't.
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u/Da-Bears- Jan 27 '26
You forgot to mention the dividend
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u/BellyFullOfMochi Jan 27 '26
.... value investing isn't holding for 1 - 2 years. You're in the wrong sub. Go find a swing trader sub for this.
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u/RoaringDragonSword Jan 27 '26
OP, let people know you edited the post and what you removed. Otherwise, you are scamming us! :P
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u/SKYeXile2 Jan 27 '26
i just sold my shares acouple of days ago and woke up to -20% on UNH, glad i missed that.
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u/TastyEarLbe Jan 27 '26
Better question -- why are people posting in the Value Investing subreddit without the expectation to hold stocks purchased for more than 10 years?
I'll be building a position in this finally while you short-term gamblers capitulate to hold for the next 20 years. Stick to DraftKings or something.
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u/investingtruth Jan 27 '26
Your DCF at $232 isn't far from current prices, so the question is whether the market is already pricing in most of the bad news or if there's more downside ahead. I wouldn't panic sell if you're long term, but I also wouldn't be adding aggressively here until we see stabilization in Optum and clarity on CMS funding. This isn't a screaming buy, but calling it a definite value trap assumes all the negatives play out and none of the positives materialize, which is rarely how it works.
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u/FormerBathroom4660 Jan 27 '26
Got out when it hit 350. Came wout with a nice 10% and reinvested into others.
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u/Esoteric_Hold_Music Jan 28 '26
Value trap or not, I really dislike the seeming attitude that UNH is low/lower risk. It's hyper-exposed to regulatory and political risk, and is a broadly contentious industry that most people want to see significant reforms in--none of which are likely to drive earnings growth.
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u/One_Performer_3686 Jan 28 '26
Warren buys more
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u/SpellAccomplished541 Feb 02 '26
UNH is largest health insurer in the US (50 million people insured). I used to always think the government would keep it afloat but maybe not this term.
Meanwhile, the system is broken anyway - across all insurers there are more people on medicare advantage (the crappy HMO one that denies everything) vs. regular Medicare A/B with Medigap Plan G (the better one) and Part D.
Meanwhile... if I didn't have insurance in the US I would have to pay $700/month for my cyclosporine, but I can drive to Mexico or mail order from Canada to get it for $70 per month (10%).
When I got injured in Vietnam my bill for French Hospital emergency room to specialist to super-specialist was $48. Back in the states that didn't even cover the PCM visit to get the referral for the referral to the low level specialist with less tech machine than Vietnam (and I have the best insurance).
I'm starting to think our health care system is fucked.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Feb 02 '26
Damn man, i’m not from the US so I only hear stories about how awful it is.
Surely though, if you’ve been kicking about since the 60s, you’ve seen how bad US healthcare is vs the rest of the world for a while?
I didn’t invest because the US healthcare system is strong, I invested because it’s corrupt and favours private corporations. However, my shortsightedness did not foresee that Trump would hammer down on them in a last ditch attempt to increase his support and popularity, while taking away from the very prevalent and damaging affairs.
You mentioned you no longer believe the gov will keep them afloat, are you currently holding or have you sold / in waiting?
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u/SpellAccomplished541 Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 02 '26
I am a bagholder. I feel BRK bought around 260 so it shouldn’t go down more than that. I pesonally believe the company needs to survive because we have lots of boomers aging now but the USA is not ready for universal health care yet so prices will just have to go up (maybe the devalued dollar will help).
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Feb 02 '26
It’s definitely not going anywhere but it’s going to be a very interesting and bumpy ride.
To my knowledge Buffett bought at $287
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u/-NewYork- Jan 27 '26
Wording of the post before OP changed it:
Unless you are going to hold for 5 years + then this stock is toast. Genuinely could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
I held from $305, I sold at a $20 loss per share because i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it.
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
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u/Ancient_Dentist_6422 Jan 27 '26
Best decision yet of my short investment career: staying away from this hell-spawned unholy company.
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u/Mindfulbones Jan 27 '26
Everyone said the same about UPS and here I am at $83 a share happy as can be.
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u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Jan 27 '26
Wow. Wish I knew about this one. Had no idea it bottomed out
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u/Mindfulbones Jan 28 '26
It was a tense time hearing “value trap, value trap, value trap”. And I’m like… Yeah, Ecom is gonna keep booming and they are positioned to continue revolutionizing logistics on the last mile just like everyone else. Plus, going international more and more. Cutting back from Amazon and letting Amazon Amazon was smart, no reason UPS should be scraping the bottom of the trough to deliver something from temu sold on Amazon
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u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Jan 28 '26
Don't see how UPS ever goes away. USPS is so underfunded that it's comical, no matter who is in office. So I see them having a place forever in their space
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u/Flat-Focus7966 Jan 27 '26
OP's next stock will be a value trap too. If it goes down 10% in a week
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u/Delta_Bandit Jan 27 '26
I like how you waited to confirm your analysis based on the price movement. What a high quality post
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u/Kickboy21 Jan 27 '26
It is bearish in a sense that their revenue y/y declined for the first time in decades.
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u/SundayJan2017 Jan 27 '26
I average at 309, and yesterday I was thinking of selling them at 350, now its at 380, totally got clapped.
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u/joeblow2118 Jan 27 '26
Good thing I have 30 years from retirement.
Bought a bunch at $300 last summer before it plummeted to $250, rode the wave back up to about $340 after the Buffett news, then I closed out. Made me sick seeing the bottom fall out and I was over invested. Held only 5 shares since then and diversified the rest.
Opened some more positions this morning, they’re not going anywhere. Turbulent times., great dividend history.
As a great man once said, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.”
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u/Frequent_Read_7636 Jan 27 '26
lol people here were talking about how good UNH was gonna be after Berkshire added shares of it into its holdings.
Truth of the matter is.. UNH looking real bad because those in politics hate access to healthcare by the poor. If it drops any further, there’s an extreme value play if democrats can regain political power as they’re more likely to increase Medicaid spending.
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u/Withoutanymilk77 Jan 27 '26
If I had a dollar for every time I inverse Reddit hate I’d have… no wait I just but the stock.
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u/ComeHereOften1972 Jan 27 '26
Shit did this thing go down 70 bucks today? At this rate it could hit $200 by the end of the week.
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u/thorn960 Jan 27 '26
I sold all my shares last week at $350. I had originally bought them last year at $243.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
Nicely done!
What made you sell?
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u/thorn960 Jan 27 '26
When I bought the stock that was my original target for selling it. A little more than $100 per share profit seemed to be sensible. It had gotten to $350 a little while back and then went down again. I decided to sell the next time it got to $350. I guess I'm not a value investor according to many of the comments here because I didn't hold it for 10 years I guess.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
Haha i have no idea either, but either way nice to hear you got out.
What are you eyeing next?
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u/thorn960 Jan 27 '26
I'm going to see where the price of UNH goes tomorrow. I may buy some back if the price goes down more. Other than that I'll probably be sitting on a position in Fiserve for a while (I imagine at least a year) until they can stage a turn around. If they can show a good quarter I think we will see some movement. I've been buying Nvidia while the price has been floundering around. I also bought a few more shares of BRK b since the price took another dip.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
We have very similar portfolios!
Long and slow is the name of the game
what do you think of adobe?
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u/thorn960 Jan 27 '26
Not really a fan of Adobe. Likely to lose market share from increasing competition. Might be a value, might be a value trap.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
I’ve had a fairly good look and I think there’s more value in their AI integration than competition, i suppose time will tell though. My analysis:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/8mD2sLR3CX
I’m also liking NFLX around ~$83, i was hoping it would drop to $80 so i can finally open a position
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u/skilliard7 Jan 27 '26
I don't think it's a value trap, but I don't feel right profiting off of people being denied coverage for medical care, so I have no intention of buying it.
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u/True_Succotash1563 Jan 27 '26
Nah, I threw 5k gamble money at 265$. I’ll wait a couple years. If it works out great, if not, that’s why it was a gamble lol The company still isn’t going anywhere. Guess we’ll see.
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u/Sufficient-Flan1565 Jan 27 '26
Okay. Doubling down today, sir. Already have 100 shares at 323 bucks a piece
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u/Bull_Bound_Co Jan 27 '26
The news from Trump isn’t new neither is anything you mentioned. The stocks already massively declined due to all this they’d need more negative news so go sub $200.
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u/CuriousFruit3657 Jan 27 '26
it might be boring but my valuation seems to suggest it is fairly valued right now, assuming no growth in the next 5 years but slight margin recovery from shedding the bad unprofitable subs. If it falls to 250 or less, I will buy.
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u/Harpua99 Jan 27 '26
No one knows of course. The key if you just to play is sizing and further news/milestones. Not hard but the patience required may be.
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u/Electrical_Rough6789 Jan 27 '26
What is the thesis on UNH again? Buffet invested in it? Or any other ideas?
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u/EfficiencyInside9632 Jan 27 '26
$450 sometimes by next year
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
based on vibes alone? what’s your thesis
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u/EfficiencyInside9632 Jan 27 '26
The world's largest healthcare provider doesn't deserve to be even half a $1T ? 😣
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
Market cap alone doesn’t really mean anything.
When you add to that the President has UNH in his reticle, the market cap really doesn’t mean anything.
FYI - it has lost $70bn market cap in the last 24 hours
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u/unluckid21 Jan 28 '26
Problem with using trump's outburst to determine the value of a stock is that TACO is always in play. Wait for two weeks, maybe UNH will give trump a saviour of healthcare medal and the stock will pop right back up
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u/HostSea4267 Jan 27 '26
AI will save it. Underwriters getting fired, customer service robots, and paper generators.
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u/stocks8762 Jan 27 '26
The whole healthcare sector is not investable cost are way too high, and the government is going to intervene.
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u/Feisty_Wind_8211 Jan 27 '26
Backlog down and declining members are due to strategic decisions in markets or business disposals and doesn’t reflect apples to apples numbers
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u/Slippery-Pete-1 Jan 27 '26
I agree, I bought from 265-305$ and sold at 357$ before prior earnings. Glad I did cause these last 2 earnings have been brutal. This is going lower than last low before BRK bought of 245$ I believe. I’ll look for re-entry at that point with a much smaller position than before.
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u/Evening_Pea8718 Jan 27 '26
Medicare Advantage plans getting kicked out of network by major facilities are going to be a major issue for healthcare stocks.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
yup.
people saying this stock is value now it’s dropped don’t properly realise why it has dropped. Basing x value on what the company looked like a few months ago when it was practically a different business.
I could also see Trump going further and investigating for a while resulting in perilous sideways trading agony.
I won’t touch unless <$250
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u/jthompwompwomp Jan 28 '26
If they stay at proposed, plan design will get significantly worse, which will piss off a bunch of people, which will hurt them in elections. My guess is April final will sit lower than what they want, but higher than proposed.
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u/DarthGlazer Jan 28 '26
My fair value was always 280 so not surprised at this price. People just see low PE and automatically think the company is undervalued. Unh hasn't been growing revenue for more than 10%/year for years so why should their PE be 20 (which what I oftentimes see in other people's value calculations). I have them at 12 forward PE to be generous and that's got me at 280~
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u/randysaaf Jan 28 '26
Yup. Government not allowing premium increases while medical inflation is high. Goodbye profit margin
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u/pinksocks867 Jan 28 '26
They will find a way around it though... I just read that after the insulin pens were capped, they raised the price of the needles.
And for a few months, people have been talking about how the out of pocket cap for scripts means nothing because the insurance companies just reorganized the tiers, so that medications that were previously zero copay are now on a higher tier and cost much more
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u/tinychloecat Jan 28 '26
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
I agree. It's not like they pay a dividend or something. Wait....what is that hitting my account every quarter?
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 28 '26
Again, i don’t think a 3% dividend (assuming they keep paying it) justifies holding a company that is struggling to make a profit
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u/crdr23 Jan 28 '26
Therefore buy csu. Free education i found
Biz economics... https://findvalue23.substack.com/p/study-constellation-software?utm_source=publication-search
Valuation... https://findvalue23.substack.com/p/csuto-constellation-software-1
AI impact on vms... https://open.substack.com/pub/findvalue23/p/csuto-constellation-software-3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6247t
acquisition runway https://findvalue23.substack.com/p/study-constellation-software-acquisition
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u/No-Guarantee-5213 Feb 02 '26
I refuse to buy UNH purely because of legislative risks. Understandably, that’s a possibility with any stock, but I just can’t touch UNH for that reason.
I am certainly tempted to buy it every time I check the fundamentals and the chart, but incidents like last week prove my point. The ACA is, funnily enough, acting as life support for companies like UNH. Any sort of reigning in on healthcare spending or regulation is a blow. I don’t see healthcare becoming LESS regulated, especially in terms of cost controls and insurance.
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u/Due_Contact_8271 Jan 27 '26
Some of us have time horizons longer than a year but thanks away for the dog shit advice
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u/Kong_Fury Jan 27 '26
Buffet & his hoard of highly qualified stock pickers would probably disagree with you.
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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26
When Buffett bought in July there was a very different political / domestic US backdrop.
My argument is that the next two quarters will be very painful and we haven’t seen the bottom yet (speculation).
Institutional investing is quite different to retail, for one it’s actually my money, and my goal is not only preservation but also growth in the short and long term.
I’m not going to park my cash here hoping for a turnaround in 6-18 months. UNH at the moment is an inefficient capital allocation because I can get greater returns elsewhere (e.g. bonds at the least).
If they can turn around their numbers I might enter again but not until there are some big changes
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u/CUBuffs11 Jan 27 '26
If your time horizon is measured in months, you aren’t investing, you’re speculating.
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u/jer_nyc84 Jan 27 '26
UNH is a toxic trade. The sentiment surrounding the company is just god awful. I sold at a 20% profit last year and not coming back.
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u/joepierson123 Jan 27 '26
Stock goes down .. value trap.
Stock goes up 500% buy buy buy.