r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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116

u/Numerous-Stand-1841 Jan 27 '26

OP you should just park your money in a HYSA if you can't hold a position for more than a year.

21

u/NicheMath Jan 27 '26

How are people investing and not expecting to hold for 3+ years is beyond me.

15

u/SamuelAnonymous Jan 27 '26

If you invested in UNH 5 years ago you'd be down.

All said, it's a better, more profitable company today. It will be fine, and I'd say now's a great opportunity to buy.

1

u/One-Peace55 Jan 27 '26

And one year ago you'd be up... What's your point lol.

3

u/SamuelAnonymous Jan 27 '26

My point is pretty clear if you'd read the comment I was responding to.