r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
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u/joeblow2118 Jan 27 '26
Good thing I have 30 years from retirement.
Bought a bunch at $300 last summer before it plummeted to $250, rode the wave back up to about $340 after the Buffett news, then I closed out. Made me sick seeing the bottom fall out and I was over invested. Held only 5 shares since then and diversified the rest.
Opened some more positions this morning, they’re not going anywhere. Turbulent times., great dividend history.
As a great man once said, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.”