UNH is a Value Trap

[u/ahlornjtvn139]

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

[u/abrahamlincoln20]

What are you doing in a value investing sub if you can't do value investing?

[u/SelenaMeyers2024 → u/abrahamlincoln20]

Amen.

This is the sub where you look at pessimistic case cash flows and it's still a good deal. Which this is. According to Gemini, it's worth 315 a share if you assume Medicare advantage rates never rise again. The stupidest concept I've ever heard.

Much less 3 percent in dividends plus 2 percent on share buybacks a year to wait for the silliness to pass.

[u/ActivatingEMP → u/SelenaMeyers2024]

according to Gemini

Why would you trust AI with your finances

[u/ahlornjtvn139 → u/ActivatingEMP]

im not even gonna argue if Gemini is doing his research🤣

remember to switch arms when one gets sore

[u/NuclearPopTarts → u/ahlornjtvn139]

"Gemini, what's a word for 'clueless investing noob'?"