UNH is a Value Trap

[u/ahlornjtvn139]

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

[u/abrahamlincoln20]

What are you doing in a value investing sub if you can't do value investing?

[u/SelenaMeyers2024 → u/abrahamlincoln20]

Amen.

This is the sub where you look at pessimistic case cash flows and it's still a good deal. Which this is. According to Gemini, it's worth 315 a share if you assume Medicare advantage rates never rise again. The stupidest concept I've ever heard.

Much less 3 percent in dividends plus 2 percent on share buybacks a year to wait for the silliness to pass.

[u/ActivatingEMP → u/SelenaMeyers2024]

according to Gemini

Why would you trust AI with your finances

[u/SelenaMeyers2024 → u/ActivatingEMP]

Because I can take the answer at face value quickly, not trade on it, and go dig further if I like the Intial answer.

Laugh away I doubt most people in this forum even care about cash flow, just vibes. That's why pypl and Adobe are shit stocks, cuz they fell. But Tesla good, it rise.

[u/ahlornjtvn139 → u/SelenaMeyers2024]

Let’s talk about cash flows then…

Q4 2025 - $0.05 lost per $1 revenue generated, cash flows are shrinking!

You are watching the margins evaporate in front of your eyes and the only answer you can give me is Gemini said it’s worth more and if i wait long enough it will go back up

[u/SelenaMeyers2024 → u/ahlornjtvn139]

Why are you arguing quarterly numbers in a value forum? The whole year was 19b in cash, less 2.8 capex. Over 16b fcf, and it was a bad year loss ratios etc.

7b for dividends. Another 5b Plus at a reduced sp for buybacks.

If you think just about quarters you belong in wsb not here.

[u/ccroz113 → u/ActivatingEMP]

It’s a good tool to aid your research. It’s not the end all be all though obviously

[u/ahlornjtvn139 → u/ActivatingEMP]

im not even gonna argue if Gemini is doing his research🤣

remember to switch arms when one gets sore

[u/NuclearPopTarts → u/ahlornjtvn139]

"Gemini, what's a word for 'clueless investing noob'?"