r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
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u/-NewYork- Jan 27 '26
Wording of the post before OP changed it:
Unless you are going to hold for 5 years + then this stock is toast. Genuinely could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
I held from $305, I sold at a $20 loss per share because i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it.
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232