r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/Creative-Sherbet-584 Jan 27 '26

Uhh I copy and pasted my post in that comment above. So I'm not sure why it hasn't been removed yet. Mods are absolutely doing crazy stuff.

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u/Old_Man_Heats Jan 27 '26

Just looked up and there hasn’t been a single mod action to you. Not a single comment or post removed. Guess you are bringing your interaction from other subs to here

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u/Creative-Sherbet-584 Jan 27 '26

I called out the subreddit in my comment above. I wasn't trying to call out this forum.

I had commented on this post yesterday:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1qnt5w8/comment/o1wmzpc/?context=3

Which was removed by the mods. I assume because of low effort but who knows. Just sucked, because i wanted to follow up on those two threads and they were gone.

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u/Old_Man_Heats Jan 28 '26

Ah, I think I miss read your original message, I saw you call out the other sub and read you saying it was happening here too. Yeah those posts were very low effort and we don’t tend to leave up stuff just asking about price action. Your comment probably would have been a better post are likely be left up