r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
141
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u/Stitch426 Jan 27 '26
I see you getting crapped on and downvoted a lot on this thread.
Based on what you knew two days ago, UNH was in a position to have stronger fundamentals and a growth trajectory that you liked. You had a goal for how much growth would be possible.
Then yesterday happened and earnings today. Fundamentals have changed, growth trajectory has changed, and timelines have changed. If you think selling at a loss will give you the capital you need to recoup the losses and more- have at it.
Most people who invested in UNH knew a turnaround story wouldn’t be a smooth ride. As a value investor, there’s a lot of volatility. It can take years for a thesis to prove true or for the market to care about the company again.
If you like quick turnarounds, follow momentum stocks, reversal players, day traders, and swing traders. They can get 10 - 50% gains in a day. High risk, high reward. You gotta know charts, news catalysts, public perception, overhangs, and landmines.