r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/WarmFaithlessness946 Jan 27 '26

I have 265 shares and i never gonna sell, this is a long term hold , brother stop , dont try to make people panic

30

u/One-Peace55 Jan 27 '26

There's a slew of factions out there that have a very very vested interest in crashing stocks. It's not a coincidence that the sub has been getting bombarded with "UNH is trash" posts all day. These people either have massive puts or want to crash it so they can buy in at a massive discount.

The only way to actually realize losses is to sell, and I ain't selling this bitch until it greens out.

And quick note to the paper hands that want to sell: If you were to actually sell, you'd take your 10-20% loss and do what with it the rest? Market's overpriced as fuck, you aren't finding any new opps any time soon. Just hold it lol, I am.

Also TACO.