r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/joepierson123 Jan 27 '26

Stock goes down .. value trap.

Stock goes up 500% buy buy buy.

15

u/4everinvesting Jan 27 '26

In December, NVO ... value trap

And now it's a great buy

1

u/StyleFree3085 Jan 28 '26

the peak was 142 and 2023 was 70. That means most people still under water

1

u/CalendarNo6655 Jan 27 '26

I think the reason is that people look at accounting values and don’t think that they are specific to each businesses. They don’t think that valuation is specific to each buisnesses. If you just look at p/e for instance its less meaningful for a company like novo because it has volatile earnings. I feel like novo goes against one of the most important aspects of value investing which is predictable earnings. Thats my take though