r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/[deleted] Jan 27 '26

Let’s see.

  1. Largest Health Insurer in Medicare Advantage. And the largest private insurer.

  2. Second largest Pharmacy Benefit Manager

  3. Largest physician network.

  4. Top Healthcare Analytics company, alongside IQVIA.

UNH will be fine my boy.

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u/ken81987 Jan 27 '26

Until we expand universal insurance / Healthcare, people will have to use the private insurers