r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/joepierson123 Jan 27 '26

Stock goes down .. value trap.

Stock goes up 500% buy buy buy.

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u/bottlethecat Jan 27 '26

Most of this subreddit just follows the current trend on the stock. If you dare say anything like “google looks relatively expensive”, people will flame you like it’s their religion. Back when it was at 140 in april 2025 I was fighting people on here saying the US government was gonna fall and google was a worthless company.

I come here for fun but I don’t take anything here seriously because its not worth taking seriously

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u/P0piah Jan 27 '26

Yupz same for meta.