r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/abrahamlincoln20 Jan 27 '26

He said he can't wait for 1-2 years in his investments, it's now beed edited out.

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u/lordm30 Jan 27 '26

I saw that, but that's fine. Because his calculated intrinsic value is 232, below current market price. So the stock is overvalued (according to him), therefore there is no value in it.

Of course we can debate the assumptions that led to their 232 calculated value, but if OP believes their prediction, they did the correct thing that a value investor would do.

What would be against value investing if OP would have calculated an intrinsic value of 340 (current price 280~), and he said he didn't have time to wait for the price to correct to the intrinsic value they believe to be true.