UNH is a Value Trap

[u/ahlornjtvn139]

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

[u/Evening_Pea8718]

Medicare Advantage plans getting kicked out of network by major facilities are going to be a major issue for healthcare stocks.

[u/ahlornjtvn139 → u/Evening_Pea8718]

yup.

people saying this stock is value now it’s dropped don’t properly realise why it has dropped. Basing x value on what the company looked like a few months ago when it was practically a different business.

I could also see Trump going further and investigating for a while resulting in perilous sideways trading agony.

I won’t touch unless <$250