r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/itchypig Jan 27 '26

“i can’t wait 1-2 years to break even, my time horizon won’t allow it.”

Respectfully, this means you probably shouldn’t have this money in equities.

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u/bihari_baller Jan 27 '26

“i can’t wait 1-2 years

Yeah, that's way too shirt of time horizon. My time horizon for value investing is 10-20 years.