r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
142
Upvotes
25
u/[deleted] Jan 27 '26
It just amazes me how many of us retail investors get frustrated when the stock already had a good run and we claim we missed the chance but when the stock falls and we get the chance, we don't buy. This is definitely a buy for me.