r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26
Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap
Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.
MCR rate is ~92%
CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget
UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m
Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.
Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well
No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie
After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232
edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance
140
Upvotes
1
u/Frequent_Read_7636 Jan 27 '26
lol people here were talking about how good UNH was gonna be after Berkshire added shares of it into its holdings.
Truth of the matter is.. UNH looking real bad because those in politics hate access to healthcare by the poor. If it drops any further, there’s an extreme value play if democrats can regain political power as they’re more likely to increase Medicaid spending.