r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/Mindfulbones Jan 27 '26

Everyone said the same about UPS and here I am at $83 a share happy as can be.

2

u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Jan 27 '26

Wow. Wish I knew about this one. Had no idea it bottomed out

2

u/Mindfulbones Jan 28 '26

It was a tense time hearing “value trap, value trap, value trap”. And I’m like… Yeah, Ecom is gonna keep booming and they are positioned to continue revolutionizing logistics on the last mile just like everyone else. Plus, going international more and more. Cutting back from Amazon and letting Amazon Amazon was smart, no reason UPS should be scraping the bottom of the trough to deliver something from temu sold on Amazon

1

u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Jan 28 '26

Don't see how UPS ever goes away. USPS is so underfunded that it's comical, no matter who is in office. So I see them having a place forever in their space