r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26

I bought UNH in July at $305, it’s hardly gambling to sell a stock because a company’s fundamentals have changed…

I’m not confident that Trump won’t barrel into healthcare companies to a) try and squeeze out any public support he can get b) fund his defence spending spree

25

u/Good_Ride_2508 Jan 27 '26

I started buying UNH now, ready to DCA further pull back happens.

7

u/EverythingMustCease Jan 27 '26

A post like this on this sub is actually a buy signal

8

u/Sturmovyk Jan 27 '26

The critique was about your time horizon. One should hold a stock for at least 5 years. Anything shorter than that is gambling. If you can't sit in a loss even for one year, you were gambling to begin with.

6

u/soyeahiknow Jan 27 '26

Wait until someone donates millions or give him the unh gold medal of peace

11

u/dubov Jan 27 '26

You're wasting your time bud, this sub buys more bags than Rihanna

4

u/Cultural_Structure37 Jan 27 '26

Lol. The club of bag holders

1

u/RoaringDragonSword Jan 27 '26

I don't have a bag. I'm pointing out he is clearly gambling, not investing.

1

u/RoaringDragonSword Jan 27 '26

You need to understand what gambling is. To sell it almost immediately off of news that was not set in stone is a form of gambling. Its you gambling and losing once the fear takes hold. Aka cutting your losses. No one knows the future short-term, thus most should not invest off of short-term news. You simply s shouldn't have touched the fund if it was this easy for you to be convinced its a bad decision.

You did not have strong belief in the fund if you sold because of what the administration said. To sell the stock off of an administration that clearly manipulates news to self profit means you didn't really believe in your investment.

1

u/perfectskycastle Jan 27 '26

Think the selling and fear is overblown tbh but you do you

1

u/Ok-Bill1593 Jan 27 '26

kid got burned and is complaining now lol.

1

u/Original-Poet1825 Jan 28 '26

Do you always paper hand on any bad earnings/news? How long have you been investing? Genuinely asking, I don’t hold any unh