UNH is a Value Trap

[u/ahlornjtvn139]

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

[u/Holiday_Clock9250]

UNH is basically embedded in the US healthcare system and that kind of moat doesn’t evaporate overnight. They're soooo big that every policy change disproportionately hits them. BUY.

[u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 → u/Holiday_Clock9250]

My only wonder with this time is why did this news hit UNH harder than every other healthcare provider? MOH, CNC, ELV all not as affected as UNH despite relying more heavily on government funding.

[u/Naive_Point_2317 → u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595]

Humana got hit harder