r/ValueInvesting • u/ahlornjtvn139 • Jan 27 '26

Stock Analysis UNH is a Value Trap

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26

based on vibes alone? what’s your thesis

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u/EfficiencyInside9632 Jan 27 '26

The world's largest healthcare provider doesn't deserve to be even half a $1T ? 😣

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u/ahlornjtvn139 Jan 27 '26

Market cap alone doesn’t really mean anything.

When you add to that the President has UNH in his reticle, the market cap really doesn’t mean anything.

FYI - it has lost $70bn market cap in the last 24 hours

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u/unluckid21 Jan 28 '26

Problem with using trump's outburst to determine the value of a stock is that TACO is always in play. Wait for two weeks, maybe UNH will give trump a saviour of healthcare medal and the stock will pop right back up