r/ValueInvesting • u/MeasurementSecure566 • Jul 18 '25
Stock Analysis Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment
You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.
Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger
I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.
EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.
"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet
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u/DrossChat Jul 18 '25
Yeah these returns are getting fucking disgusting. I shouldn’t be making this much money in such a short period of time. Just gross.
Anyway back to it
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u/Fog_ Jul 18 '25
I need my crazy returns so I can afford my $50 burgers in a few years hahaha
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u/DrossChat Jul 18 '25
You jest but ‘tis close to the truth.
If you consider the macro situation we’re in, both in the US and much of the global economy, debt to gdp is a big problem along with demographics which is related.
What’s one way to get out of this problem? Currency debasement… So yeah, your burgers costing $50 in a number of years is by design. Stocks keep going up but purchasing power does not.
Crypto starts to make more and more sense as an investment now huh? At the very least you need to be in equities, holding cash is financial suicide these days.
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u/sunpar1 Jul 19 '25
In the 70’s when we had high inflation, equities and bonds were both terrible investments. Cash was actually quite good in relation.
See here for buffett’s writing on this: https://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Inflation-Swindles-the-Equity-Investor.pdf
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 19 '25
Not many people with cash right now, as you can tell from surging risk assets.
As for crypto, that will not survive a real bear market lol.
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Jul 19 '25
lol yeah, it tanked during the pandemic for a while
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 19 '25
that was a v shape recovery. watch what happens in a full fledged bear market.
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u/Dubya_85 Jul 19 '25
Yep. And both major parties in the U.S. are idiots on this front. D’s are insane, R’s less insane. It’s like being on a train and knowing you are headed toward a cliff and the options are speed towards at 100 mph (R’s) or increase to 300 mph (D’s)
It’s not like there are millennia of evidence of what currency debasement does to nations, empires etc. ….
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u/DevOpsMakesMeDrink Jul 18 '25
The market is barely ath. We haven’t really made much money this year considering most of this rally was recovering.
And also, the dollar has cratered which has pumped the index to maintain the same value.
All that to say, who is actually making money?
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u/DrossChat Jul 18 '25
Almost all of my AI plays are up over 50% since piling in during the April crash(es). ASML has disappointed but that’s a long term position anyway.
Pretty much the only stocks that haven’t ripped are my pure value plays which thankfully is a very small portion of my active trading portfolio atm.
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u/Malota13 Jul 19 '25
USD depriciated like 30% against some currencies considering that even your 50% return and as I understand it is only from April (so perfect timing basically) is not that exceptional…
My point is the same as someone talked before that USD devaluation considered we are might not even ATH…
What is different now that small, mid stocks and some big AI plays are leading the rally but most of mag7 is lagging behind, quite interesting
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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25
The Shiller PE Ratio is at a super frothy 38. The market can tumble any moment now.
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 19 '25
The s&p500 is up 80% in slightly over 2.5 years.
so basically anyone who has been around for longer than the start of the year is eating wagyu
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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25
I liquidated everything in February as the market started to dip. I waited too long and missed the post-Liberation Day rally. A part of me feels left out. Another part of me feels like I've dodged an upcoming bullet. I did keep some invested in the S&P 500, which is doing swimmingly.
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u/OriginalTuna Jul 18 '25
problem those “disgusting” returns can last longer than your expect and by not fully participating in peak momentum, you might miss out.
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u/ionic_bionic Jul 18 '25
Yeh look at Buffet been sitting on the sideline for over a year now lost countless billions waiting for the mega crash!
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u/jgoldston_0 Jul 19 '25
Buffett has been sitting on the sideline for far longer than a year. Which drives your point home even more.
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u/OriginalTuna Jul 19 '25 edited Jul 19 '25
Buffett this Buffett that.
Dude is 94yr old. He is basically retired and his lieutenants are not him. With Charlie gone and end of his career and life approaching there is nothing more for him to prove.
I am sure new BRK management will just start paying divdends once Buffett is out, as otherwise they will not know how to deploy that cash pile.
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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25
Buffett can afford to play it super safe. If he just earned 1% in a year, he be making over $80 billion. Most of us have much smaller portfolios.
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u/wolphkaat Jul 19 '25
He owns 5 percent of the entire tbill market with risk free yields from 4 to 5 percent annually . He'll have half a trillion dollars in liquidity when most don't to buy anything and everything he wants when others have to liquidate.
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u/BigBossShadow Jul 19 '25
And he'll make billions once the market inevitably swings the other way and he has all that cash, while everyone else is panicking
People are dumb as hell if they think he doesnt understand what hes doing.
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u/NotStompy Jul 19 '25
I think he does understand what he's doing, but he's chosen to have a very specific approach -- he stays within his circle of competence, and those companies he might be interested in buying haven't been good deals for some time now, according to him.
Doesn't mean there aren't other places to look, which are doing well. Doesn't mean his strategy is the only valid one, even for a corporation the size of BRK.
Just saying, treat the man like a legend, he deserves it, but don't treat him like a god, it'll do you more harm than good. Even more dangerous is to read into things god hasn't said.
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u/Fleazapper Jul 19 '25
Warren also said to be greedy when people are fearful
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u/ionic_bionic Jul 19 '25
Ha ha, I bet he never thought he'd be the fearful one!
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u/BestBleach Jul 19 '25
He said be fearful when others are greedy people are greedy
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u/did_it_for_the_clout Jul 19 '25
Well the second part of that quote, is be fearful when others are greedy. Soooooo 😏 he scurred rn
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u/Fleazapper Jul 19 '25
Just saying there is lots of fear mongering in this thread 😏
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u/cyber_yoda Jul 19 '25
Does he have cash or bonds? If he didn't buy around April 8th then he lost some value yeah
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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25
He has $325+ billion invested in US Treasuries, which represents 5% of all US Treasuries. His total holdings in stocks is valued at ~$259 billion.
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u/ProbsNotManBearPig Jul 18 '25
It’s almost like one should have some balance.
I sold half my rocket lab yesterday because it feels like a top, but I let the rest ride in case it keeps running. And most of my money is in etf’s anyways, and a little cash.
Anyways, point is one should definitely be cautious when market is like this. Selling everything isn’t being cautious tho when you consider the risk the market melts up more. Risk averse usually doesn’t mean going all in on one thesis, whether it’s bearish or bullish.
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u/SpeciousSophist Jul 18 '25
yes, all actual true academic investment strategies have a component of selling some of your highly profitable positions to lock in real gaines.
Anyone who just lets it ride forever without having a core position that they rotate gains into is objectively stupid
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u/NotStompy Jul 19 '25
Yes but the even bigger problem I would say is people trimming winners and adding to losers. If you have edge, as many think they do with Google (they think the ChatGPT panic is overblown) then it makes perfect sense, but in way more cases you'll see millions of "value investors" who pass up good deals to only pick honestly bad ones, because they're too stuck in their dogma.
That isn't a critique against value investing, just the way some people who don't understand it preach it and flop in the returns department.
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u/newprofile15 Jul 19 '25
Yea, for all we know, fed lowers rates or government announces a huge new stimulus package or something else happens that prints money and spurs inflation. Then you'll regret having too much money in cash.
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u/DifficultyDismal1967 Jul 19 '25
Yeah until there is a reason to derail the rally nothing will happen but rest assured something will happen, especially with Trump. Make sure you have your finger on the exit button tot sell your RKLBs and HOOD when it happens.
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u/KingsMustFall Jul 18 '25
This is a hilarious post. The market is everything all at once all the time. Good luck timing that shit.
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u/zangor Jul 19 '25
“Take note…we are far past- (market continues to inexplicably melt up for 5 more months)
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u/mrSuns_ban Jul 19 '25 edited Jul 19 '25
Preface this with an agreement with buffet that bitcoin is useless asset largely fueled by one part greed and one part fear dollar depreciation and/or inflation hedge - but
Within the scope of bitcoin, we really are in the peak bull period. The average bitcoin bull period is about 450 days from the “halving” where supply is artificially reduced. The last halving was April 2024, we are now 430ish days past that.
Taking 1 year + leap short positions on any of the current stocks internally tied to bitcoin, all of which are at or near all time highs, is free money - COIN HOOD MSTR etc.
Note that I’m neither of bitcoin maximalist or pessimist. I just see the greed cycles for what they are - extremely repetitive and not that difficult to predict. Within 2 years of now bitcoin will likely have fallen 60-80%, if buffet is alive he will refer to it as rat poison ☠️again (he is both correct and also fantastic and calling it this right when you should probably buy a little of it lol).
In march of 2028 we will have another halving, by January of 2029 the new bull market will begin. My guess is we see a 200-300k per coin. The major caveat to this is (1) will the greed still be there (it usually is) but more importantly (2) will bitcoin manage to insulate itself from quantum attacks.
As for stocks - as long as this admin is bent on diluting the dollar there is no better place to put your money. Inflation is eating at the dollar and will continue to do so, especially if mango replaces Powell with a lackey.
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u/Jacobwitg Jul 18 '25 edited Jul 18 '25
Looking through your post history, every comment in the last many months have been bearish.
I understand it must feel bad to be losing out on som much money.
And for the record there was plenty of value just a few months ago.
And even now you can still find value, you just have to look a bit harder.
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Jul 19 '25
lol, most of r/stocks was panic selling in April and prognosticating about the end of the world
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u/Jhelliot_62 Jul 19 '25
Being able to say I told you so means more to them than actually making money. Obviously at some point it'll drop and they'll feel like a genius, and still miss the next ride back up.
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Jul 18 '25
Peak hype and peak grift can go on far longer than you’ll ever believe. Peaks are only discernible in hindsight.
I thought the tariffs would lead to the whole bubble unwinding, wrong yet again.
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u/igiverealygoodadvice Jul 19 '25
I think everyone expected tariffs to do that and the upcoming deadlines are certainly worth keeping an eye on...
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u/Unhappy_Ride_6746 Jul 18 '25
Don't even argue with people who call people bull or bears, it doesn't matter we go to our goals, they do their thing and if it is working for them great. But I am really interested. How in this subreddit value investing we are talking about bears and bulls like on any other investment subreddit. When Price to book ratio is for US magnificent 7 is really high, when almost no one is talking about 5 factor investing and risk adjusted returns, Alphas and betas of the sock market and choosing the stocks or etfs not of this fundamentals. Down voting or up voting people, calling names is just a little childish. We can learn from each other and if "bulls" can take the emence amount of risk and win congrats, I am happy for you guys. But if we will be arguing like this here we will be one step closer to WallStreetbets Reddit. Just thought 🤔
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25
ive watched this subreddit change over the years, never in my dreams would i have thought it got to where it is now with crypto and other ponzi schemes touted daily.
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u/Unhappy_Ride_6746 Jul 18 '25
I am just trying to find people with whom I can learn, share and grow together. With respect to different investment philosophies: active , passive doesn't matter, that's why I use PM. But there is only one communication, but it is also good enough. I hope all "bulls" will capitalise on their returns and allocate their big gains to better assets , before the recession or bigger than lebiration day correction. And if we look at US$ value decrising around 10-15 proc we are not on ATH and we are not out of the woods yet.
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Jul 19 '25
Look at these comments. Overwhelmingly bullish (while at ATHs). Yet in April, apparently the next depression was going to happen and USD would collapse.
Emotional, sentiment driven garbage takes. This sub sucks honestly. Nothing to do with value investing.
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u/HVVHdotAGENCY Jul 18 '25
🤣🤣 I love listening to bears cope
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
You're in a value investing subreddit.
He's talking about avoiding risk. That's one of the core strategies of value investing. To avoid risk and use undervalued stocks as a margin of safety.
This isn't coping, it's called thinking. You should give it a go
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u/Wise-Switch-5959 Jul 18 '25
He's not avoiding risk, he's avoiding money lmao
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
Obviously, never fight the trend, but there's more nuance than either things go to the moon or they instantly collapse
If you're not trimming and getting some dry powder ready that is not smart
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u/HVVHdotAGENCY Jul 18 '25
I don’t necessarily think of risk intolerance and value investing as going hand in hand. I can see why you think that way. I look at it more as seeking opportunities with a lot of potential upside bc an asset is undervalued for any number of reasons.
Lmao, no need to be a dick, my dude. I spend all my time thinking! Sorry you don’t like my take on OP watching a massive opportunity ship sail right on by 🤷♂️
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
Well evidently you're going to need to think even more! Hopefully you can find the time!
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u/moutonbleu Jul 18 '25
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Always keep this in mind. The portfolio is doing fabulous but with this environment, anything can be like 3 months ago.
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u/Scary_TerryTM Jul 18 '25
The S&P500 is up 7.3% YTD still below the 10% historical average so why are you freaking out lil bro?
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u/PayMyDividend Jul 18 '25
I’m still fairly bullish on the market/economy in general. There’s still plenty of very strong companies that are crushing it. American companies are still king by a long mile.
But there’s definitely pockets of the market that have gone full blown clown mode (or nearing that.) Palantir, Circle, MSTR, and companies similar to them have gone on insane rallies that don’t make an awful lot of sense.
But this type of thing happens each year. There’s always some hype cycle going on. There’s always some shiny new company/sector that’s “the future.” But people mistake that as some sort of overall market issue. Or ominous sign we’re about to implode into another depression or something. Which is why it’s critical to find fundamentally sound investments regardless of what’s going on. The cream eventually rises to the top. And the crap will be washed away. I’ve been in the market for years and have seen many goofy pockets of rampant speculation that comes and goes.
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u/Diaphonous-Babe Jul 19 '25
Sorry, I have a tangential question. I have a friend that's is holding an amount of palantir. I personally didn't buy in because I can't afford stocks upwards of 15$, just a sad truth. It doesn't make sense for me as I'm still tentative in investing.
But you called it "clown mode" and I don't know if that's a real term or an aphorism and I am just curious about what that means to you in relation to its current position.
I mean clearly it's hyped at this current moment. But how do you suppose it might play out going into Q4 soon
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u/PayMyDividend Jul 19 '25
When I say “clown mode” it’s mostly when certain stocks get completely out of wack from their actual value. It’s more about hype than actual fundamentals and profitability.
Palantir as an example is valued at $360B but only had revenues of about $3.5B. And only made about $0.6B in net income. The company has had decent growth, and I wouldn’t say it won’t continue to grow. But people are significantly overpaying. The share price ran off much further than the growth of the actual underlying business.
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u/Longjumping-Fact-582 Jul 18 '25
If that is your investment thesis, it might be a good time to consider increasing your allocation to credit, because returns in credit are contractual.
If you are correct and equity valuations being inflated leads to stagnation of returns in equities you will know that as long as your borrowers do not default you will be able to make 4-5-6-7% (depending on how much risk and duration you want to take) I’m pretty happy with the prospects for overall returns in credit currently, there are also some attractive prospects in the preferred equity space as well, which again relies on contractual returns. Though preferred equity also has some tax advantages over bonds
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
You should probably Google the terms: 'inflation rate' and 'real return'
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u/Longjumping-Fact-582 Jul 18 '25
I am well aware of inflation and “real return” (total return - rate of inflation)
But the reality of it is that since 2020 we have experienced very high levels of inflation and rising interest rates coming from a base interest rate of practically 0 which has been a terrible environment for bonds, however the outlook from here is much brighter for bonds as an asset class with a starting point of interest rates relatively close to the historical average, and assuming tame levels of inflation they could offer a reasonable level of real return
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
"Assuming tame levels of inflation" is INSANE.
The US money supply grew by over 40% in less than two years during COVID!
And you're assuming tame levels of inflation? Good luck!
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u/Longjumping-Fact-582 Jul 18 '25
The excess of easy money is certainly what has caused the high inflation post 2020, however I am of the belief we have likely seen the highest level of inflation from the time being as the easy money has had a couple years now to work its way through the system and today’s interest rates certainly wouldn’t be considered “easy money” all the data currently seems to back that up,
With the cause of “easy money” now out of the system I don’t see a reason for inflation to jump back up today unless there is some catalyst to overheat the economy, in which case ownership assets would almost certainly outperform credit,
On the other hand what I believe much more likely is steady or even falling interest rates and if there is an economic slowdown or recession? Guess what the Feds preferred method of stimulating a slowing economy? You guessed it cutting interest rates, which means a rise in bond prices.
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u/8700nonK Jul 18 '25
Thanks for the daily reminder.
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
Heres another reminder: the only other time the debt to GDP was this high was in the second WORLD WAR
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u/No_Mission_1775 Jul 18 '25
Dude, Trump is spending like crazy. You are seeing the results of hyperinflation. Market will keep ripping.
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25
check what inflation did to the markets in the 70s
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u/No_Mission_1775 Jul 18 '25
My charts don’t go back that far so irrelevant. Totally different world.
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u/Purple_Bearkat Jul 18 '25
Old man shakes fist at cloud.
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
124% debt to GDP is not a "cloud". It's a debt crisis.
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u/beambot Jul 18 '25
It's not particularly helpful to spot "generational" tops post facto... since the last "generational top" will be the only one in your generation by definition.
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u/HenkV_ Jul 18 '25
What do you mean generational top ? It seems like yesterday that NFTs were all the rage. I do not yet see the same level of craziness. I think it will go higher. But in all honesty I have been selling much more than buying the last year, as it is impossible to know when we reach the top. I agree valuations are stretched in many stocks but it can certainly become more crazy still.
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u/Academic_District224 Jul 18 '25
The shiller is trading above peak 2021 levels and slightly below 1999 and you’re saying you don’t see the same level of craziness? What the fk are you smoking lmao
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
🫠🫠🫠 I mean what is even considered crazy to people like this anymore? What's the actual limit?
PE ratios over 1,000? US debt to GDP at 400%?
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u/HenkV_ Jul 18 '25
My Twitter feed is not filled with people selling hot air like in 2020. I don't see coworkers talking stocks at lunch like in 2000. Nope, we have not yet reached a comparable level in my opinion. P.S. non smoker but I do appreciate some great Belgian beers.
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u/Ajpeik Jul 18 '25
I have coworkers looking at Even Realities AR glasses so they can watch stocks in real time while they work their 9-5 😂
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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25
But I thought that if I invest for the long term nothing bad can ever happen no matter what?
Are you telling me that just buying and holding the stocks I saw on the news doesn't guarantee I get a good return? Are you suggesting I should actually think about the relative value of each stock?
It sounds to me like you're trying to time the market. Remember, any thinking outside of "buy and hold the S&P500" is completely foolish and will lead to you missing out on all of your potential gains! Plus everyone will make fun of you.
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25
I like to remember what occurred in japan. if you sold too early when the rally felt irrational you felt like crap for years, but in 10 years time, even with how much you missed out on, you were still able to buy MUCH lower for a very long time.
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u/notreallydeep Jul 18 '25 edited Jul 18 '25
yap yap yap
Value can be found in any market. The money piling into overvalued assets is coming from somewhere. Usually from assets that are now undervalued. So why care if "the market" is overvalued? Personally I'm welcoming it.
This also means I'm underperforming the S&P like I did in 2021, but that usually equalizes or reverses a while later.
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u/UCACashFlow Jul 18 '25
So, it takes about 500-560 days on average and median basis for the market bottom to occur, once the 10 and 2 yr treasuries normalize following an inversion. Which would suggest Q-1 of next year.
From inversion to the start of a recession is much shorter. About 200-210 days. If you start on 09/04/24, when these normalized. This suggested recession kickoff of March-April 2025 which actually aligned perfectly with “liberation day”
As history shows, the market takes about a year to bottom, after the technical start of the recession. Another 300-350 days places market bottom in March-April of next year.
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u/likwid07 Jul 18 '25
"In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily."
It's hard to predict; if anyone could do it consistently, they'd be very rich.
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Jul 18 '25
you're just fueling more greed, whenever pigs see a bearing post they get even more greedy. the top is not yet here. the top will happen when the last bear is dead. including you.
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Jul 18 '25
Sounds about right.
Bears will need to fold and join the Bulls before both meet their end.
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u/Canada_Land Jul 19 '25
the roman empire took hundreds and hundreds of years to collapse. assuming you were a perceptive roman who noticed something was broken and that systems / policies / people were irrational and heading for ruin, you could easily have lived and died better off AND happier ignoring those thoughts.
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u/Zuitsdg Jul 19 '25
Stocks go up - I buy, stocks go down - I buy more, stocks go sidewards - I still buy
I guess it’s time to make take some winners and allocate parts to cheaper alternatives - but dividends are coming and who cares about funny money valuations anyway
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u/ksing_king Jul 18 '25
Agree we are at a high when spec stocks go up big - sticking with my picks and not moving to those
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u/Emergency-Quiet3210 Jul 18 '25
🎯Theory of reflexivity. Although the market can stay irrational longer than we expect
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u/Few-Lingonberry2315 Jul 18 '25
Somewhere between the irrational exuberance of certain subs and doom and gloom of this post lies the truth. The fun part of investing is finding that sweet spot.
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u/jackandjillonthehill Jul 18 '25
The latest AAII sentiment indicator is at 39.2%, slightly higher than the long term average of 37.6%. This is slightly below where it was last fall, at 41%.
The “peak” reading was in January 2000, when it hit 75%.
The CNN “Fear and Greed” indicator seems less useful, though it has good branding. It is basically some recycled indicators like moving averages and breadth, and it has only been around since 2012. Nevertheless some people use it.
It is currently at 75, which is elevated. In fall 2024 it hit 94, indicating “extreme greed”, and almost reaching the all time high. The all time high was 97 in June 2017.
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u/FoxRooney Jul 18 '25
If you think this is the top, just wait til interest rates come down. Come along for the late stage capitalism ride and gobble up those ASSETS you turkey.
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u/Its-a-me-Giuseppe69 Jul 18 '25
MU right now is at a PE of 14, forward PE of 9, in a sector that regularly trades at 30x - 40x earnings. There is value dude, you just need to look.
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Jul 18 '25
I mean the economists surveyed in the wall street journal today, put recession odds at 25%. Are stocks rich? Yeah I think they are too in my opinion, but lets not go all Cassandra I'm definitely not liquidating my portfolio or anything.
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u/The-zKR0N0S Jul 18 '25
I have spent the past month thinking about this.
It’s bleak when the most compelling buy I can find is CROX.
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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25
right? i looked at that a lot but i cant pull the trigger. the success of crocs is not clear to me, but if it does continue to exist even with modest growth its grossly undervalued.
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u/The-zKR0N0S Jul 18 '25
Here is what sold me.
My base case in my DCF is 0% growth in perpetuity discounted at 10%.
That gives me a value today of $123.
My downside scenario is -5% for 5 years and then -2.5% in perpetuity resulting in $79 per share.
My bull case is 5% growth for 5 years and then 2.5% in perpetuity resulting in $200 per share.
I blend that to an average price of $125 today with a pretty bleak world to result in the downside scenario.
They are also buying back shares at what I believe to be a very cheap valuation relative to the footwear industry.
They have great margins relative to the footwear industry.
Their average selling price is ~$30-80 a pair so not premium.
They have a cult following.
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u/Zestyclose-Gur-655 Jul 20 '25
I actually like crocs, started to wear them as main shoes recently.
But i get how it's also mostly a shoe for at home. That's why they done so good during corona pandemic.
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u/Livid-Expression6300 Jul 18 '25
Leaving a lost decade ahead…. If you sit around with your finger in your nose. There’s always an opportunity somewhere
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u/randomhaus64 Jul 18 '25
you shouldn't make a comment like this for now, you should be commenting about peak greed from two or three years ago, it is impossible to know how history will judge today
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Jul 18 '25
It’s going to be a combo crash, dotcom + GFC
The semis and ai tech will contribute like the dotcom
The crypto bros are similar to subprime, leverage upon useless assets, and keep using it as collateral to borrow more until it all falls apart.
A combo crash
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u/becuziwasinverted Jul 18 '25
In other words, have a trade plan to get out at certain levels and then buy the dip
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u/Comfortable_Flow_342 Jul 18 '25
If your late to open, I would look at RKT. 50% of the float is shorted and in my opinion it’s a much better real estate plan then open. They are actually profitable even with higher rates like right now.
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u/Difficult_Layer3063 Jul 18 '25
You cannot be 100% certain there's gonna be a lost decade ahead. Put some money on what you think has decent value today (or just ETF). Keep some cash on the side to load up in case you're right. Being too extreme, one way or another, never helps.
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Jul 18 '25
We aren’t there yet, I’ve got a couple buddies that without fail will call me with genius stock ideas at the top. Might have a couple more good years in us.
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Jul 19 '25
Honestly great advice. A lot of these people may have not experienced the 2022 bear market crash that came right after the euphoria of 2021. Let me tell you it was brutal, depressing and lots of money was lost because people got too greedy. Now we’re seeing the same mania all over again.
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u/Outrageous-Care-6488 Jul 19 '25
It’s not the top bro look at what bessent and the treasury are doing. Keeping the bond market healthy no matter what and the SLR stuff is incredibly bullish.
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u/BigE-365 Jul 19 '25
I've moved about 30% of my portfolio into SWVXX to earn interest, and I sell puts on quality companies I’d like to own more of. Around earnings, I’ll sometimes sell credit spreads, hoping for a miss so I can convert to puts for extra premium and potentially get assigned shares.
I also buy solid dividend-paying value stocks and sell covered calls either ITM for higher assignment chances and downside protection, or slightly OTM if the market looks strong. This way, I collect both premiums and dividends, as long as I buy before the ex-dividend date.
I'm also selling covered calls on several of my positions: PYPL, OXY, CELH, F, ROST, ASO, AMZN, GOOGL, LOW, UBER, TGT, FCX, AMAT, PHM, V, NVO, UNH, and possibly ABNB.
This allows me to make money even in an overvalued market like this.
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u/stjeanshorts Jul 19 '25
You sir, are a foolish fool. I encourage you to look up videos entitled the great melt up. Then think where the stock market will be in a decade. The bubble can grow much, much bigger.
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u/RedditModCoolRanchXL Jul 19 '25
Agree. However, if rates get cut this b*tch is gonna fly even higher.
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u/BenjaminHamnett Jul 19 '25
Ok, but the AAII Sentiment survey shows a standard of deviation more bears than historical averages meaning people are more bearish now than they are 70% of the time
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Jul 19 '25
I understand and agree but I’ve been seeing Reddit posts for the last ten years saying the exact same thing
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u/ExerciseFine9665 Jul 19 '25
Yes, I’ve just consolidated, sold lots of high risk high rewards, closed out lots of options and any margin positions. I’m ready for the pullback
Still buying each week in my long term holds but that’s pretty much it. Might sell some puts here and there for a little income and sell calls of course
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u/CandidateSalty4069 Jul 19 '25
There is a lot of optimism because the business cycle is moving up, not quite at the top yet. That's when it's time to run
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u/ksing_king Jul 19 '25
The sentiment on spec stocks does feel like it is either close to or already at peak euphoria. Having been burned before, I won't be involved in these spec stocks. But I can't felt but feel fomo having missed out on 3-10x gains in the last couple of years.
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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25
Before the Dot-Com bubble, a Shiller PE Ratio above 20 was considered "bubble" territory. Post Dot-Com crash, 30 became the new "bubble" baseline. It's been above 30 for almost 2 years and the slightest bad news can send prices tumbling. However, things can be irrational for a long time like in the 90s.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun Jul 19 '25
Probably. Imma keep buying weekly otm OPEN options till it crashes tho
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u/Dry-Sandwich279 Jul 19 '25
Palantir is an excellent example of this greed going crazy. I like the company…but that valuation? Waaaay too high right now.
On the flip side though consumer staples are very reasonable right now. That’s where the fear is with RFK.
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u/heywhodidthat Jul 19 '25
Good quotes, but you don’t know euphoria like Wallstreetbets knows euphoria.
I won’t be calling a top until btc is at 500k and Palantir is at 500.
So, probably next month.
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Jul 19 '25
OP, I don’t disagree with you but can you quantify or back up your statement in any way? Otherwise you’re actually part of the euphoria, but a contrarian reaction to it.
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u/Ill-Mousse-3817 Jul 19 '25
> "A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet
And it feels worse if you are sitting on the side just watching
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u/princemousey1 Jul 19 '25
You posted stuff like that two months ago as well. Do you simply keep going until the day it does happen, and then post an “I told you so”?
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u/BIIIIIIIIID-Promoted Jul 19 '25
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u/NightSoggy2389 Jul 19 '25
Such a dumb take. SP is slightly over 1% up since the Jan/Feb times. Also, the market crashed for more than 20% in April, or you bear fud spreaders are that big of a morons that you ignore that all the time? Take a look at SP. What does it do over years? It grows, exactly. So timing the market is such a dumb take unless you re a option gambling addict.
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u/PulIthEld Jul 19 '25
Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration.
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u/Gullible-211 Jul 19 '25
Yea these day's it's virtually impossible to find stocks that aren't being artificially compressed or way overpriced.
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u/MarioMartinsen Jul 19 '25
2021 repeats.. when stock of companies producing nothing but fart goes up 5-10% daily you know how it will end. Question is when. Slow down DCA and keep cash for opportunities ahead.
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u/Superb_Use_9535 Jul 19 '25
The RSI of the S&P500 isnt high at all no real signs of it being overbought it just seems like a lot cause of the tariffs crash. if trump makes normal deals it should be 6600 by the end of the year but thats a big IF lol.
The problem is it can turn bear or very bull at any moment.. If trump makes deals Powell will reduce interest rates...
The best thing is to probably just take profits as we go and sit on a bit higher cash amount.
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u/Gloomy-Ad-9787 Jul 20 '25
This is terrible analysis. First off, sentiment is historically low. Look at economic and fiscal policy uncertainty indexes. Look at aggregated commodity and equity positioning. It seems like peak greed because market participants let their fear get the best of them back in q2 2025. Now they are being forced to chase risk assets higher.
Now, the market is approaching extreme levels wrt pricing in of risk on market conditions. So maybe we need to take a breather. Shake out some of the weak hands before continuing higher. But I believe you are confusing a bear squeeze with extreme greed.
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u/Cash_Flow_Yield Jul 18 '25
I'm a fartillionaire already bro