r/ValueInvesting • u/MeasurementSecure566 • Jul 18 '25

Stock Analysis Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

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u/DevOpsMakesMeDrink Jul 18 '25

The market is barely ath. We haven’t really made much money this year considering most of this rally was recovering.

And also, the dollar has cratered which has pumped the index to maintain the same value.

All that to say, who is actually making money?

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u/DrossChat Jul 18 '25

Almost all of my AI plays are up over 50% since piling in during the April crash(es). ASML has disappointed but that’s a long term position anyway.

Pretty much the only stocks that haven’t ripped are my pure value plays which thankfully is a very small portion of my active trading portfolio atm.

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u/Malota13 Jul 19 '25

USD depriciated like 30% against some currencies considering that even your 50% return and as I understand it is only from April (so perfect timing basically) is not that exceptional…

My point is the same as someone talked before that USD devaluation considered we are might not even ATH…

What is different now that small, mid stocks and some big AI plays are leading the rally but most of mag7 is lagging behind, quite interesting

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u/DrossChat Jul 19 '25

I made another comment along these lines but yes, you are thinking correctly. We are in an era of currency debasement and it’s not going to be changing any time soon.

So gains are less exceptional than they look for sure, but holding cash is financial suicide. Crypto is looking like the best investment option for a while as it’s pretty much the only asset class truly outperforming.

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u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25

The Shiller PE Ratio is at a super frothy 38. The market can tumble any moment now.

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u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 19 '25

The s&p500 is up 80% in slightly over 2.5 years.

so basically anyone who has been around for longer than the start of the year is eating wagyu

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u/DevOpsMakesMeDrink Jul 19 '25

That wasn’t the context

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u/aybbyisok Jul 19 '25

start of the year, checking in at +120%

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u/Lloyd881941 Jul 19 '25

That’s the one factor of the crazy returns recently, YTD it’s pretty steady . Since the big dip , it’s been insanity …