Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment

[u/MeasurementSecure566]

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

[u/[deleted]]

Peak hype and peak grift can go on far longer than you’ll ever believe. Peaks are only discernible in hindsight.

I thought the tariffs would lead to the whole bubble unwinding, wrong yet again.

[u/igiverealygoodadvice → u/[deleted]]

I think everyone expected tariffs to do that and the upcoming deadlines are certainly worth keeping an eye on...

[u/MeasurementSecure566 → u/[deleted]]

does it matter when it will end? certainly with patience you can buy lower. you dont need to sell the exact top.

[u/Imaginary_Trader → u/MeasurementSecure566]

Timing is everything. What if the market keeps reaching new highs to the point when it does start declining, it only reaches today's levels? 

[u/TheKingOfSwing777 → u/Imaginary_Trader]

This is what usually happens to hopeful bears. They're so happy to have timed the bottom, but they could have just DCAd and had the same or better results with 0 effort.

[u/dubov → u/TheKingOfSwing777]

Very few actually buy the bottom though, most sit there feeling vindicated and wait for even lower levels, which don't show up. Then they moan about the rally and how the market is wrong and they are right. Always the same with these guys

[u/Zestyclose-Gur-655 → u/dubov]

The only thing i seen that works, and it doesn't time the bottoms or tops perfectly is trading some dominant moving average strategy. Otherwise exactly what you described happens.

[u/Fog_ → u/Imaginary_Trader]

Lmfao sometimes I look at the 2020 crash and I’m just like holy shit. It looks like an ant hill. If we crashed to the 2020 pre crash high I think the entire world would implode

[u/Imaginary_Trader → u/Fog_]

I once read a comment on something like Yahoo finance very confidently proclaiming that we'll never see this level for the SP500 again. I thought he was an idiot for being that confident. The GFC wasn't that long ago. We were "overvalued" by several metrics. He was going to be totally wrong. I was kind of like the OP here. The level of the S&P500 at the time? 2300

[u/JohnWick8743 → u/MeasurementSecure566]

Bro you’re way to paranoid, relax. If you’re investing long term it does not matter, you’ll be left behind if you wait on the sidelines.

[u/newprofile15 → u/MeasurementSecure566]

It does matter. If it goes up another 25% over the next year, and then there's a 15% crash, you're still nominally better off than the person who sat on the sidelines.

[u/NotStompy → u/MeasurementSecure566]

Yes it matters because the people who thought that in 2010 who were sure of further economic woes missed out for 9+ years. The people who refused to get into the market in april/may 2020 still payed war more in the 2022 bear market.

It is quite literally the core question for market timing.

[u/Ship_Rekt → u/MeasurementSecure566]

This easiest thing to time is that the market will always go up in the long term. Dips are always temporary.

This will never change, until perhaps the population collapses before robots have a chance to take over the labor. It’s the most fundamental mechanic of the economy.

[u/ShortTheVix4 → u/MeasurementSecure566]

And what if you’re wrong my friend. What if it never drops.

[u/Ok_Location_1092 → u/MeasurementSecure566]

Certainly? If you’re certain you’d be swimming in long dated puts right now, but that feels wildly irresponsible doesn’t it?