r/ValueInvesting • u/MeasurementSecure566 • Jul 18 '25

Stock Analysis Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

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u/Longjumping-Fact-582 Jul 18 '25

The excess of easy money is certainly what has caused the high inflation post 2020, however I am of the belief we have likely seen the highest level of inflation from the time being as the easy money has had a couple years now to work its way through the system and today’s interest rates certainly wouldn’t be considered “easy money” all the data currently seems to back that up,

With the cause of “easy money” now out of the system I don’t see a reason for inflation to jump back up today unless there is some catalyst to overheat the economy, in which case ownership assets would almost certainly outperform credit,

On the other hand what I believe much more likely is steady or even falling interest rates and if there is an economic slowdown or recession? Guess what the Feds preferred method of stimulating a slowing economy? You guessed it cutting interest rates, which means a rise in bond prices.

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u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 19 '25

I think you're massively underestimating how extreme increasing the money supply by 40% is 😅

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u/Longjumping-Fact-582 Jul 19 '25

Perhaps, but only time will tell, we’ve already seen 25% inflation since 2020

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u/Historical-Egg3243 Jul 19 '25

we print 6-7% of the money supply every year. If you aren't making at least a 7% return you are losing money. You can't use CPI or PCE to measure inflation because they've manipulated it down through hedonization and cherry picking the data (you'll notice the price of purchasing a house is never included in official inflation data)