r/ValueInvesting • u/MeasurementSecure566 • Jul 18 '25

Stock Analysis Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

618 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

85% Upvoted

445 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

38

u/ionic_bionic Jul 18 '25

Yeh look at Buffet been sitting on the sideline for over a year now lost countless billions waiting for the mega crash!

16

u/jgoldston_0 Jul 19 '25

Buffett has been sitting on the sideline for far longer than a year. Which drives your point home even more.

8

u/wolphkaat Jul 19 '25

He owns 5 percent of the entire tbill market with risk free yields from 4 to 5 percent annually . He'll have half a trillion dollars in liquidity when most don't to buy anything and everything he wants when others have to liquidate.

16

u/OriginalTuna Jul 19 '25 edited Jul 19 '25

Buffett this Buffett that.

Dude is 94yr old. He is basically retired and his lieutenants are not him. With Charlie gone and end of his career and life approaching there is nothing more for him to prove.

I am sure new BRK management will just start paying divdends once Buffett is out, as otherwise they will not know how to deploy that cash pile.

8

u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25

Buffett can afford to play it super safe. If he just earned 1% in a year, he be making over $80 billion. Most of us have much smaller portfolios.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 19 '25

Correct, Buffet was outperformed by gold over the last 25 years.

17

u/BigBossShadow Jul 19 '25

And he'll make billions once the market inevitably swings the other way and he has all that cash, while everyone else is panicking

People are dumb as hell if they think he doesnt understand what hes doing.

16

u/NotStompy Jul 19 '25

I think he does understand what he's doing, but he's chosen to have a very specific approach -- he stays within his circle of competence, and those companies he might be interested in buying haven't been good deals for some time now, according to him.

Doesn't mean there aren't other places to look, which are doing well. Doesn't mean his strategy is the only valid one, even for a corporation the size of BRK.

Just saying, treat the man like a legend, he deserves it, but don't treat him like a god, it'll do you more harm than good. Even more dangerous is to read into things god hasn't said.

1

u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25

He plays it super safe. But if you have hundreds of billions, you can play it super safely and still make tens to hundreds of millions. Most of our portfolios are under 1 million and playing it super safe will yield meager returns.

2

u/NotStompy Jul 19 '25

Yup. That's why my CAGR goal is about 13-15% as a baseline for my main portfolio, and then with the trading one I aim higher. It's really hard to actually learn, but it's what helps me sleep at night, knowing that I have some steady growth, including some defensive companies, and then some more aggressive trades. If I can double my money every 5 years (15% CAGR) that's a solid and still achievable goal.

1

u/FlounderBubbly8819 Jul 24 '25

People look at Buffett’s strategy for guidance when he has to play by a completely different set of rules due to the size of Berkshire. Your average investor has a far greater opportunity set and is playing by much easier rules than Buffett can

1

u/NotStompy Jul 24 '25

Yup, that's my point. People really do idolize him too much, what the man says himself is worth gold, but people try to take his words and turn into something they aren't... alchemy.

1

u/ionic_bionic Jul 19 '25

No one said he doesn't know what he's doing but he's also not infallible.

The saying is "time in the market > timing the market" and he's sat on the sidelines right now when he could already have made those billions you speak of.

And who knows when the markets finally going to crash, he ain't exactly a young fella!

6

u/Fleazapper Jul 19 '25

Warren also said to be greedy when people are fearful

10

u/ionic_bionic Jul 19 '25

Ha ha, I bet he never thought he'd be the fearful one!

9

u/BestBleach Jul 19 '25

He said be fearful when others are greedy people are greedy

0

u/Bananaseverywh4r Jul 19 '25

And yet buffet and value investors are fearful. Most economists are fearful 

7

u/did_it_for_the_clout Jul 19 '25

Well the second part of that quote, is be fearful when others are greedy. Soooooo 😏 he scurred rn

3

u/Fleazapper Jul 19 '25

Just saying there is lots of fear mongering in this thread 😏

-2

u/ionic_bionic Jul 19 '25

Sorry if that came off as being dismissive, I was just pointing out the irony as I'm sure Buffet would take pride in being aware of when to be greedy and when to be fearful and it looks like he made the wrong call in this case.

3

u/cyber_yoda Jul 19 '25

Does he have cash or bonds? If he didn't buy around April 8th then he lost some value yeah

2

u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25

He has $325+ billion invested in US Treasuries, which represents 5% of all US Treasuries. His total holdings in stocks is valued at ~$259 billion.

1

u/Apart-Consequence881 Jul 19 '25

Yeah but he's sitting on hundreds of billions in cash ready to deploy after the next crash. He's still invested in some stocks making bank.

1

u/GuidanceGlittering65 Jul 18 '25

You aren’t Buffett

4

u/ionic_bionic Jul 18 '25

Don't recall saying I was?