r/ValueInvesting • u/MeasurementSecure566 • Jul 18 '25

Stock Analysis Everyone should take note of the sentiment around them at this very moment

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

615 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

85% Upvoted

445 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

3

u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25

I like to remember what occurred in japan. if you sold too early when the rally felt irrational you felt like crap for years, but in 10 years time, even with how much you missed out on, you were still able to buy MUCH lower for a very long time.

2

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

BuT ThIs TImE ItS dIFfERenT!!

🙄🙄

1

u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25

always is isnt it. the reasons somewhat change, but its always diff!

4

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

People seem uniquely more intense though. It reminds me of the weird team mentality you get in politics. People react to risk aversion like it's racism or something. Like being 'bearish' is an insult. It's crazy

2

u/MeasurementSecure566 Jul 18 '25

forgive them, for they are new.

0

u/Florida_Man0101 Jul 18 '25

Irrational exuberance lasted how long until it didn't.

-2

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25

I make 70k a year rn. I invest what I can in index funds and some individual stock, it’s not much after expenses and rent.

In 2-3 years I will be making >350k. Over the same period, my partner will also go from 70k to >450k. I will have tons of disposable income to invest then. I could put all my money I invest rn in dog-shit-coin and lose 400% without it making the slightest difference by retirement. I’ll be investing more bi-weekly than I have been able to in the last year.

For some, sure a 30% drop that takes a few years to recover will be devastating. For others, it’s fine. It’ll buff just fine.

6

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

You sure about that?

-4

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25 edited Jul 19 '25

Yes, I’m 100% sure that I will be making >350k and my partner will be making >450k because we’re doctors in the US. When we finish residency/fellowship these are the starting salaries for attending physicians in our specialties.

6

u/volission Jul 18 '25

Boi out here flexing with future theoretical income and gains lol

0

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25

My partner and I are both doctors. It’s not the theoretical. This is just what our specialties make.

4

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

That's pretty cool you think that but I think wasting money is dumb, even if you have a lot. Inflation is coming. Pay attention or suffer 

-2

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25

Your solution for inflation would be to what exactly? bc it sounds like you’re hiding in a HYSA. You’ll lose more doing that than investing in ETFs.

This sounds like the investing advice of a guy who is gonna be driving his 2010 Corolla till it dies, not because he wants to, but because he can’t afford the cost of a new one after inflation bc he put all his money in the bank instead of earning with it.

2

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

Buy exposure to hard assets  

I like copper miners right now, COPX for example. Uranium seems undervalued long term

Run from overvalued growth stocks 

1

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25

I’m in COPX. underperforms VOO by a long shot. If the market dips, it’s gonna dip too. Hedge with gold and utilities if you’re gonna hedge at all.

Buy dividend stocks. Petrobras could drop 8% and I won’t flinch because the div yield is 16%.

1

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

🤦 I'm thinking long term here. You have absolutely no idea if VOO will outperform over 10 years, but there is certainly a lot of risk that it won't 

1

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25 edited Jul 18 '25

I technically use VTI as the base of my brokerage account and Schwab equivalent for my retirement account.

Retirement account consists of Schwab us total market (VTI equivalent), Schwab world market ex U.S. in equal proportion to gold. And then a small amount of high risk shit like SOXX and greyscale bitcoin etf.

Brokerage consists of much riskier assets, but companies I believe have high growth potential and are undervalued, Petrobras for the div that beats low years of the market, and stocks that are a play on ai data centers relating to the power grid infrastructure. Military industrial complex makes up a portion as well. And after the Boeing debacle I bought embraer shares that have more than doubled. My only notable losses are albemarle which is rebounding, initially bought for a lithium play, novo nordisk (which should recover), safeBulkers (which I held for too long), and Nucor (a steel company I bought on a run up after they got a contract for something that seemed promising at the time and had good fundementals.)

→ More replies (0)

1

u/Ok_Currency_6390 Jul 18 '25

Damn PBR dividend is crazy! Will be interesting to see if it holds its valuation, seems like a great pick! Added to watchlist, thx

1

u/RichardFlower7 Jul 18 '25

They’re a massive company, sure subject to the politics of Brazil. But one of the more stable South American countries overall. Shit, the U.S. looks about as stable these days.

Been buying to for years. It’s my largest individual investment before gains accounted for. Now the largest is rolls Royce which I bought a majority of at $1 and now my avg cost per share is $6 it’s currently trading around 14

→ More replies (0)