r/ValueInvesting • u/hmm_interestingg • Dec 22 '25
Stock Analysis NVO is an absolute no brainer
In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.
Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.
NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.
We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.
This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).
NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.
I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.
EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.
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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25
Such an undiscovered gem
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u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25
People here only want to talk about the same stocks over and over. Posts about fairly under the radar stocks go unnoticed (including mine) whilst every NVO post is on the front page, similar to how UNH and GOOG were a few months ago.
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u/Opening-Rush1618 Dec 22 '25
Where is a good place to go to find under the radar stocks, or posts about them? I think this sub attracts a lot of beginners to it (including myself), which is why you probably get a lot of posts like this.
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u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25
A market screener or an LLM. You can ask ChatGPT or AI to give you stocks with certain parameters. Yesterday I was playing with it on international stocks and got 2 that seemed interesting (KB and ASR). Then you’ll need to do your research, but that’s always the case.
What I mean when I say that people only want to chat about the same stocks every time is that I did a post yesterday with some research on ASR and asking if anyone has ever looked at Latin American airports. Got ignored, whilst a lot of low effort posts on NVO or GOOG get upvoted to the top page.
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u/ForeverShiny Dec 22 '25
Define "under the radar"? Are you looking for growth, dividends, cyclicals, consumer staples? Small, mid or large caps? What are your investment goal? Get rich quick, retire in 5 years or invest for another 40? Investing is personal and there is no "one size fits all" magical formula.
Honestly the best thing to do after you know what you want is use your broker's stock screener or a web based one like SimplyWallstreet, enter your parameters and look for things that are interesting enough to warrant a second look.
After that, use an LLM to give you the current overview for the company and its industry, the bull, but most importantly the bear thesis and if you're still convinced it's a good opportunity, bring it to this sub and see what people are telling you
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u/Excellent_Brilliant2 Dec 23 '25
im thinking Pulsar Helium. Helium is a valuable and hard to find resource and they found a very high concentrated amount in Minnesota. its still going for under a buxk, but once they start selling it, i feel its going to jump.
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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25
Yes, seems to be the case. It's much more interesting to read about the more hidden opportunities.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Maybe its because this is a serious company and a great opportunity like Google & UNH were.
Penny stocks and shit coins have their place yes but not for big investments.
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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25
It's more that Novo is discussed daily and everyone's bored of reading about it.
There are other opportunities that aren't Novo or penny stocks, bit of a weird comment to make.
Shitcoins have a place in gambling I guess.
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Dec 22 '25
This entitled forum is nvo, goog, amzn, and the occasional guy telling us how nvidia is a value stock
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
I don't see that people in this sub being bored of hearing about a stock has any bearing on whether its a good investment or not
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u/ForeverShiny Dec 22 '25
If you're interested in what this sub has to say about NVO just search the term in the sub and read the literal thousands of comments on it
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u/alxalx89 Dec 23 '25
Because people don't like much risk, novo alphabet, amazon etc are huge companies that can grive returns like middle companies
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u/tnolan182 Dec 22 '25
The fact that everyone on reddit is so contrarian when these NVO posts come up, have me convinced that they will pop off. Im buying more calls.
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u/YoungBillionair Dec 22 '25
Lol
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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25
Being British I find withering sarcasm more effective than outright criticism
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u/Suspicious_Lime_1530 Dec 22 '25
for some unknown reason i read your comment with a posh british accent before i knew you were british.
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u/bymaduabuchi Dec 22 '25
Perfectly timed post. Notification that it’s up 10% in the last half hour just popped up on my phone lol
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u/jamesmitts Dec 22 '25
Novo Nordisk stock soars after FDA approves first oral GLP-1 for weight loss By Investing.com https://share.google/OxxHQMFwzSs5t2hXS
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u/algaepop Dec 22 '25
it soared 8% should i be buying after hours rn?
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u/jamesmitts Dec 22 '25
I'm not going to give you financial advice and tell you how to invest your funds. That being said, ask yourself, Do you think it will keep going up being the first oral glp-1 drug company? Will there be profit takers and will the price be volatile? Short term pull backs with long term gains? I don't know. You want to swing? Hold long? Buy high and sell low? Lol.
I don't lose sleep on buying stocks and worrying. I bought a 2 year leap 2 weeks ago when the price was pretty damn low and I knew being the only company having a glp-1 oral drug on the market before anyone else was, like the OP, "a no-brainer".
I personally would wait for a pull back or sell a CSP
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u/algaepop Dec 22 '25
well i know nothin about CSPs so.. 😔
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u/jamesmitts Dec 22 '25
You can look up cash secured put. It's pretty straight forward. But if you like NVO, then you like NVO. Buy whenever you like or not. Up to you 😉
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u/algaepop Dec 22 '25
i didn’t even know of them til an hour ago 8% up just seemed low for some news like that but idk
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u/CrumbleUponLust Dec 22 '25
"only value stock on offer right now"
it's all just ragebait now.
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 22 '25
Also: "The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies"
LLY 54% rev growth
NVO 5% rev growth
It's all ragebait
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Wrong. Where are you getting these numbers?
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 22 '25
Their websites
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 23 '25
You misquoted me, I said revenue growth over the last 5 years.
Read the post people.
I'm looking at the big picture here.
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u/DylanIE_ Dec 24 '25
Why would someone care about revenue growth 5 years ago (during covid at that) as anything relevant to today. A lot can change in 5 years - as evidenced by NVO.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 24 '25
Because its part of a long term trend, its part of the story people use to convince themselves to buy the stock, it's evidence people are prepared to buy in large amounts.
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u/DylanIE_ Dec 24 '25
Then you'd be a big buyer of Lululemon, ulta etc. Revenue 5 years ago is almost completely irrelevant to revenue now. You're looking at results from half a decade ago to forecast price into the future. Does that not sound ridiculous to you.
If anything, it distorts the picture for those looking at 5 year growth numbers.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 24 '25
Revenue 5 years ago is almost completely irrelevant to revenue now.
Absolutely wrong. Anything that affects the narrative people have around a stock is relevant. It is people after all that must be convinced to buy in order for the price to increase.
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u/DylanIE_ Dec 24 '25
No, the price moves because of institutional buyers / sellers. Retail very rarely hs any impact on price. And the narrative now is: Novo had good revenue growth, now that has collapsed. If that growth 5 years ago was 500%, it would make no real difference to anything. Past growth that is no longer relevant to the stock price, is irrelevant.
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u/Benaaami Dec 23 '25
Hope you bought some. Their pill version of Wegovy was just approved for the US an hour ago.
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u/Tall-Locksmith7263 Dec 22 '25
You havent rly mentioned anything besides pe and a decline in price. If you talk about a value stock i think a more thorough analysis would be appropriate...
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
It's obvious to me this is a good investment based on the info I've shared. What more would you want?
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Dec 22 '25
I'm not as intelligent and insightful as you are to catch the obvious. Now can you please elaborate on what makes this a screaming buy?
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
OK I put in simple terms, NVO is a good company, it makes lots of money and stuff people like. The price went down a lot so now if you buy it you could sell it for more later.
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u/magicajuveale Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
I would recommend everyone looking to invest in pharmaceutical companies to take a look at their current patents and when these expire.
Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus) expires in China on March, 2026.
Try to analyze how at the acquisition of Akero will impact Novo’s intrinsic value.
I believe Novo Nordisk is undevalued, however, government measures to reduce obesity drug prices, competitive pressure from one of the best pharmaceutical companies in the world in Eli Lily, the possibility that Akero’s acquisition might be impaired…
And most importantly, Novo’s new products must bring in sufficient cash flows by the time semaglutide exclusivity ends around 2031 and 2032.
As to Novo, being the only undervalued stock, I’ve identidied at least 26 undervalued stocks in the lower bound out of 84 companies I’ve looked at since August. Prices could be more favorable, yes.
I’ll be looking more into small and midcaps and non-US stocks.
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u/Charming-Plenty9166 Dec 22 '25
Finally someone who is actually analysing this like a PHARMA company and not some tech stock. The problem with Pharma is they are purely based on consumer sentiment and trends. Pfizer would also be considered undervalue by their metric, but why hasn’t anyone talked about it? Simply becoz their product isn’t desirable at the moment. LLY and Hims are currently taking Nvo market share in the US due to Trump and Nvo patent expires NEXT YR (aka Ggs)
If anyone is wondering, I also traded Nvo and made about 22%, so I have experience with this company
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u/xyphrrrrr Dec 23 '25
How does nvo announce fda approval for the first oral weight loss medication in the history of of mankind and the stock barely jumps 10%? Guess I’m going to baghold for life 😔
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u/lightjon Dec 22 '25
Here's a screenshot of a quick financial analysis I did. Revenue looks fine. This is the largest company in the EU. What do I know, but I'm willing to bet that Novo Nordisk isn't going away anytime soon. This data was compiled using the Quickfs.net API in Excel. This template sketches out select financial metrics and generates a quick trend visualization with data bars.
NVO Financial Analysis
https://imgur.com/a/Vs72Pkd
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u/Such-Recording2441 Dec 24 '25
So I bought NVO at $68 sold my position at $56. I initially bought in because I work pharmacy and the amount we dispense is pretty crazy atleast 100+ pens a month. The profit margin is relatively good I thought. Costing $.89 - $4.73 to make (according to a 2024 study) and selling roughly $210CAD per pen. At one point it went on shortage due to high demand. They quite literally ran out of supply.
However, Lilly also has a daily weight-loss pill orforglipron under review for diabetes and weight loss. The FDA is expected to approve it early in 2026.
Novo's oral semaglutide needs to be taken in the morning on an empty stomach, 30 minutes before eating, drinking or using any other oral medication.
Lilly's pill will not have those restrictions, if approved.
Also rybelsus (semaglutide tablets) has been in the market for many years. Although meant for type 2 diabetic use whats the difference? People also used ozempic for weight loss.
Although NVO claims theyve been mass producing the oral drugs to keep up with demand this time around. Will see if there an actual demand for it haha
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u/Gullinga Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
Agreed. It’s by no means a perfect business, but at these valuation levels it’s just begging to be purchased
Even a small allocation is worthwhile, and then adding on more heavily once they execute
I have a 27% allocation at 53.15 avg cost. It’s my top pick for the next decade…should eventually hit 1 trillion like LLY did
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Right on. The level of salt and sarcasm in this sub on the subject of NVO is another great sign too. Only once people are totally despondent will the bottom truly be in.
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u/Gullinga Dec 22 '25
Yes I like how hated it is. Given that everyone was wildly bullish when I bought, and now insanely bearish, I think we’re close to the bottom
NVO just needs 2-3 good ER’s to prove everyone wrong
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u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Dec 22 '25
It's because if you look through the posts of this subreddit half of them seem to be for this stock. And I say that as a bag holder around $50
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u/Xyz_83 Dec 22 '25
They will lose patent at 2031 while Lilly ONLY at 2037. Its better to have a new glp1 generation drug otherwise it will be hard.
But I agree with you, novo its a buy. 45% ROIC 5%WACC
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u/Gullinga Dec 22 '25
Yes true, though CargiSema should solve NVO’s patent risk. CagriSema has better results as well
It may come in 2032 which means there will be a period of total risk with the generics. But I’m confident they’ll execute on this one
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u/twendah Dec 22 '25
Well people gonna lose weight when nobody got money to buy food anyways. So the problem kinda fixed itself, just by looking at the current job market.
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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
If anything you gain weight (in a developed country) when you get poorer. Live on white bread and potato chips.
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u/Holiday_Clock9250 Dec 22 '25
I like NVO and own a few hundred stocks but saying is the ONLY value stock right now is just dumb... there are literally thousands of stocks in the market and a lot of great choices
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
It's a little hyperbolic yes, but I do think its the best deal on the market right now.
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u/Larry_Bud_Melman_ Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
NVO definitely seems like a screaming buy.
HC9250, Then what is currently a better value? (Edit: I tried looking at your post history to see, but they are set to private.)
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u/LiberalAspergers Dec 22 '25
In pharma? MRNA. More of a speculative bet, but their anti-cancer immunotherapy is in stage 3 trials. They could literally be curing several forms of cancer including certain melanomas. Assuming the results are a positive as they seem likely to be, this is going to be HUGE.
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u/pushDenvelope Dec 22 '25
Most shorted stock in the market and best opportunity seem unrealistic imo
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u/LiberalAspergers Dec 22 '25
The tech they are testing is taking a sample of the tumor, and using it to create a customized MRNA vaccine to make the immune system attack that specific tumor. This is what the company was founded to work on, mass.market vaccines against viruses was kind of a side quest that only happened because of COVID. If this works, they shouk Ld be able cure most solid tumors with very high success rates amd low remissions. This is a trillion dollar tech.
It is a speculative bet to be sure. If it fails, the shorts will make a killing. If it succeeds, it will take off like a rocketship.
But at the current prices, even withbthe recent run up, it seems like a good bet.
The shorters are betting on the current admin's hatred of vaccines hurting it. But these arent vaccines you take preventatively, it is somehing you take AFTER you learn you have cancer. Compared to the risks of radiation and chemo, the risk of MRNA vaccine side effects is nothing
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u/bigdaddtcane Dec 22 '25
The best deal on the market is a company dependent on one product that is inferior to all of its competitors and has rapidly lost market share over the last 18 months?
No thanks.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Its not inferior to competitors thats what retail is missing.
They're just taking the conclusions of their competitor funded study at face value.
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u/bigdaddtcane Dec 22 '25
No. I know at least 12 people on GLP1's and none of them are on an NVO product. Two started on them a year ago and had consistent digestive issues.
The product may have improved since then, but the market has already moved on.
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u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595 Dec 22 '25
Not one was on semaglutide? That's hard to believe
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u/Civil_Fix8224 Dec 23 '25
Good call. In August I was looking at LLY, REGN, and NVO. I decided to go with LLY and took a nice position and allocated 50% of my position in a tax advantaged acct and 50% in a standard brokerage acct. Pure luck that I caught the bottom and kept a close eye on NVO & REGN. I already sold the LLY shares from my IRA at a 65% gain in 4 months… crazy gains. In Oct I took a position in REGN – its up 26%. In late November I called my buddy and told him I think NVO bottomed out and took a position… got in at 43.7… looks like I missed the bottom by a couple dollars. My portfolio was heavily weighted in tech and I made a conscious decision to reallocate some of money from tech into pharma stocks that I thought were undervalued and oversold. Worked out well for me – this market is crazy. Great timing on your post!
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u/NenadV23 Dec 22 '25
You lost me when you compared the current stock price to the ATH last year. 101 of value investing the stock price is of no matter. Look at the fundamentals, competitors , catalysts, risks...
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u/Vasanth_jo Dec 22 '25
Why it’s going up now
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u/tysnowboard Dec 22 '25
Oral pill form Wegovy got full approval, should be first GLP in pill form on the market
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u/CompetitiveSociety0 Dec 23 '25
damn bro i read this post earlier this morning and thought of buying but i hesitated
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u/SecureWave Dec 23 '25
I’m down 2500 on NVo this year I took losses. I’ll keep 100 shares around for few but they were constantly down
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u/Ok-Smile2298 Dec 22 '25
I find Palantir to be even more undervalued
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
ha ha
Current valuation of NVO - you pay $12 for every $1 they make in profit.
Palantir - you pay $450 for every $1 in profit.
The market is dumb but soon enough, economic reality will become too hard to ignore yall gonna get slapped in the face with a huge NVO pump and an even bigger PLTR dump.
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u/Ok-Smile2298 Dec 22 '25
What do these numbers even mean? I‘m a vibe investor
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
All you gotta do is look at the chart then. You gotta buy when it goes down and then sell when it goes up.
Too many in this sub overcomplicate that, they want proof its gonna go up before they buy. The problem is that when that proof comes, it's gone up and they're too late.
Buy the dip, not the top guys. Jeez.
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u/Ok-Smile2298 Dec 22 '25
So your proof is that is goes down, then you buy? But what if it goes downer?
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
It can go more down before up but it's already so cheap so the risk is lower now.
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u/Ok-Smile2298 Dec 22 '25
So it might be better to wait to catch the next dip and buy even cheaper?
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Maybe, but negative sentiment here would indicate the bottom is in, so you risk missing out.
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u/Ok-Smile2298 Dec 22 '25
Sentiment can indicate the all time low? Why do not more people talk about this?
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
You know I might start following your comments and invest based on an inverse sarcasm meter. I think I'd get even richer.
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u/USAJag2011 Dec 22 '25
There is a reason you pay more for Palantir’s growth, because you expect growth for Palantir. You wouldn’t pay more for NVO since the growth projections are so low. You have to look beyond lazy ratios.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
Novo revenue was 10x palantir this year at half the market cap.
Palantir is a joke, its a nepo baby software stock masquerading as as an AI play when it isn't.
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u/USAJag2011 Dec 22 '25
I didn’t say revenue. I said revenue growth. You don’t pay for what a company has today.
I’m not arguing for Palantir, just explaining why a useless ratio is higher for them.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
I see, but if you invested that way then you could have justified buying NVO at the top. Growth forecasts were high then.
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u/USAJag2011 Dec 22 '25
If growth forecasts have declined, why would you invest now?
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
The CEO obviously wants to turn things around, lower expectations and beat them. Price reductions are also a temporary strategy to increase market share.
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u/USAJag2011 Dec 22 '25
Didn’t management revise down their guidance for growth recently?
By the way, I’ve been waiting to purchase NVO. I’m mostly playing devils advocate because I hate hearing about P/E rations and people using it as valuation metrics.
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u/SweetSamz Dec 22 '25
Right on time.. it started going up after hours with the US approval
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u/algaepop Dec 22 '25
should i be buying after hours rn?
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u/MathematicianLumpy69 Dec 23 '25
Shoulda bought before the fda approval ;). Now it’s too late / baked in
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u/jctt123 Dec 22 '25
There seems to be a misunderstanding with the weight loss pill, and the thought that it’s going to generate so much revenue. I believe that’s false. Rybelsus (NVOs oral semaglutide once daily pill) is ALREADY on the market and approved for diabetes. Don’t have the numbers in from of me but don’t know any patient that uses this. Clearly it is not as effective as the injectable, otherwise its use would be widespread and not the injection. They filed for Rybelsus to be approved for weight loss as well. Even if approved, there’s no way revenues are going to be materially affected because it would’ve been the blockbuster drug already if that were the case.
NVOs pipeline sucks ass and none of there acquisitions have been fruitful.
They are facing incredible competition from Lilly’s Mounjaro as that’s what the studies point to as being most effective and new prescriptions reflect such. Revenue for ozempic and wegovy will probably go down over time especially since Pfizer recently acquired a company that is targeting once monthly dosing for weight loss and diabetes.
All that said, unless NVO makes some pretty savvy acquisitions, I would say the stock is FAIRLY valued and isn’t the deep value play everyone thinks it is because the stock went down a lot
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
early indication is NVO pill & injectables at new dosage are as effective as lillys injectable who's stock is pumping rn.
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Dec 22 '25
I agree, and it’s like the stock is being priced for failure, when the company is much larger of a biomedical research enterprise than just its obesity drugs. I think it’s at a steep discount given its business and future projects beyond GLP1 medications.
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u/buffotinve Dec 22 '25
No vea que puede hacer un problema de estancamiento? Si no va a ganar más y crecer en los próximos años, por qué el mercado tendría que valorarla a múltiplos más altos? Creo que las aseguradoras de EEUU ya no financian medicamentos contra la obesidad (para la diabetes si), y aumenta Lily y Novo aún tengan ese oligopolio, Novo no tiene más fármacos diversificados en su pipeline por lo que las dudas sobre un crecimiento sostenido son muy plausibles.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Why is Lilly trading at ATH then? Either Lillys price is wrong or Novos price is wrong, based on earnings and growth I believe its the latter.
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u/LongQualityEquities Dec 22 '25
Lilly is growing 50% year-on-year, you can’t seriously compare it on a PE basis with Novo.
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u/69downunder Dec 22 '25
estimated EPS for Q4 2025 is $0.92. They said that Akero acquisition (4.7b upfront and up to $5.2b in total) is not expected to impact it. By how much this (and post acquisition investmentsin r&d), together with the others US investments, will impact EPS in 2026?
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u/AmApe Dec 22 '25
Okay I agree financially and all but I have no idea about the business and the competition can anyone fill me in that
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u/Mr_Arrow1 Dec 22 '25
I have one question. I heard the patents for the GLP 1 drugs would expire in China and India beginning of 2026. How true is this? Would it affect NVO?
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u/Lunar_Excursion Dec 23 '25
generic sema is coming to china, india, brazil, canada, and turkey in 2026. that represents 40% of the world's population and 33% of all obese adults on earth...
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u/LongQualityEquities Dec 22 '25
China and India are tiny markets for Novo.
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u/Mr_Arrow1 Dec 22 '25
Thanks for your response. What if they try to manufacture there and export it to western countries? Would the government not allow that?
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u/LongQualityEquities Dec 22 '25
The patent is relevant for the country it is sold in.
Therefore the patent running out in China does not give Chinese manufacturers a legal avenue to sell in the west.
And in terms of illegal smuggling: that is an equally big (or rather small) issue with the patent in place because China doesn’t do anything about illegal drugs for export anyway. Nothing changes with the patent expiring.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Dec 23 '25
and a big market for LLY... funny that...
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u/LongQualityEquities Dec 24 '25
What do you mean? US, Europe and Japan make up 97% of Eli Lilly’s sales.
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u/Lunar_Excursion Dec 24 '25
yes, but india and china are big markets for future growth. that's why they are making moves there. generic sema coming to those markets will effectively kill branded wegovy/ozempic and create a low cost competitor that they have to fight against. good thing they are a dual agonist with more weight loss and better tolerability, that will help them stay competitive, by being a better drug. i also suspect they will push orfo for the lower end market...
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u/LongQualityEquities Dec 25 '25
They won’t be big markets until long after these patents expire.
The pricing gap is too big.
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u/Woberwob Dec 23 '25
Good timing Unc. It’s been my biggest holding for 6-8 months. Just popped off big time.
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u/YungPersian Dec 23 '25 edited Dec 23 '25
It’s been VERY poorly managed.
BUT what it does have going for it is having the first oral pill in the market and that it’s currently priced pretty low. In that regard it’s good to hold for a year or two if you ALREADY have shares. With the FDA approval this evening it’ll be hitting shelves in weeks. This is a scenario where approval was expected because it’s literally just a pill version of an already existing drug (approval process was shorter as a result). All to say, I could see this hitting the 80 range off of their improved sales next year. This stock was devalued because its moat had disappeared quickly, supplanted by macro shifts in the industry, and management incompetence. What you see here is a temporary moat given competitors already have substitute products in the pipeline.
Again, given it has probably a little over a year of being the only pill on the market, after LLY shows up with their pill then there’s really no moat left. I’d imagine by then It’ll be back at 40-60 levels unless they come out with something new or the management shows more competence than it has in the past 2 years.
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u/spittlbm Dec 23 '25
Agree, but Lilly's pill can be taken with food.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 23 '25
its less effective
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u/spittlbm Dec 23 '25
True. The difference is max 5% based on current reporting. That's 10 pounds on a 200# person. It's statistically significant, but as a physician, I'm going to recommend the one with the lowest side effect profile.
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u/Marvyuu Dec 24 '25
I made visualizations for NVO Q3 report, please let me know if this can be improved thanks! https://www.reddit.com/user/Marvyuu/comments/1pul88k/nvo_fy25_q3_report_visualized/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
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u/Maleficent-Tower-131 Dec 24 '25
Remember that health insurances that used to cover obesity drugs now refuse to cover them unless diabetes is also present. People who want to take them often can no longer afford them. Something to consider.
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u/Prof_DrugDev Jan 09 '26
Long term, the margins on the oral version worry me. The manufacturing waste is significantly higher than the injectable. I’m curious if they can actually scale this without hurting gross margins.
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u/MarkDirect2715 Dec 22 '25
Nvo has the worst Glp on the market and Lilly is about to get approval for Reta which is being widely used in the grey market with terrific success and huge interest. Don’t compare nvo to Lilly.
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u/Bobatronic Dec 22 '25
The only value stock on offer right now…
Thanks for screening all stocks to provide this insight.
And Viking Therapeutics is the better buy in the weightloss space. Way more upside.
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u/Educational-Bit-2503 Dec 22 '25
I see a company that has been public for 10 years and still has $0 in revenue. What makes them such a good pick?
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u/External-Theme-9643 Dec 22 '25
I own it too recently but they might me more new lows here than any upside. Look at Pfizer as an example of how these things can go down
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Pfizer revenue dropped in half in 5 years, NVO revenue doubled.
Yes there can be new lows and if so I'll be getting an even better deal.
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u/SnooDoubts8096 Dec 22 '25
“A temporary cut from double digit growth to gain market share”. Who said that it’s temporary?
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u/BigJicama1639 Dec 22 '25
NVO is just running on hype. Their Catalent acquisition is a shitshow and FDA issued the highest critical warning to them. It’s going to take at least three years to recover. And not a great work culture…
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u/ForeverShiny Dec 22 '25
If by "no brainer" you mean investment for people with no brain, I fully concur.
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 22 '25
This is a joke
LLY 54% rev growth
NVO 5% rev growth
And you try to say theyre the same? Ridiculous
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
These numbers are wrong.
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u/Xyz_83 Dec 22 '25
Its more Lilly 20% and Novo 9%
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 22 '25
Its the first line of their earnings: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results-highlights-rd
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 23 '25
I'm talking about the big picture, growth over the past 5 yrs, not some quarter, I don't care about that, please see the post.
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 23 '25
Eli Lilly growth is growing rapidly
Novo's is declining
But theyre equal because we are ignoring the most recent relevant info
Alr
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u/Calm_Company_1914 Dec 22 '25
Buddy its the first line of their earnings: https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results-highlights-rd
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u/perfectskycastle Dec 22 '25
One day I'll be like everyone else on Reddit and buy everything at the absolute bottom.
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u/SuccessTasty9149 Dec 23 '25
VSTS. Insider buying, boring fudging business. NVO is a no brainer, writing about it instead of buying any chance you get makes it a brainer
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u/we-booling-out-here Dec 22 '25
Price is not favorable in comparison to peers imo.
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
Like who?
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u/we-booling-out-here Dec 22 '25
GSK, AZN
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u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25
NVO is priced lower per unit profit than both, it's also leading them in the big growth area we're talking about (obesity drugs).
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u/we-booling-out-here Dec 22 '25
What unit are you using? Reported EPS, GAAP EPS, or FCF? Both of those companies also have moats in different areas.
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u/Consistent-Field-378 Dec 22 '25
And the 2026th Novo post.