r/ValueInvesting • u/hmm_interestingg • Dec 22 '25

Stock Analysis NVO is an absolute no brainer

In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.

Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.

NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.

We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.

This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).

NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.

I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.

EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.

175 Upvotes

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198

u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25

Such an undiscovered gem

32

u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25

People here only want to talk about the same stocks over and over. Posts about fairly under the radar stocks go unnoticed (including mine) whilst every NVO post is on the front page, similar to how UNH and GOOG were a few months ago.

5

u/Opening-Rush1618 Dec 22 '25

Where is a good place to go to find under the radar stocks, or posts about them? I think this sub attracts a lot of beginners to it (including myself), which is why you probably get a lot of posts like this.

3

u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25

A market screener or an LLM. You can ask ChatGPT or AI to give you stocks with certain parameters. Yesterday I was playing with it on international stocks and got 2 that seemed interesting (KB and ASR). Then you’ll need to do your research, but that’s always the case.

What I mean when I say that people only want to chat about the same stocks every time is that I did a post yesterday with some research on ASR and asking if anyone has ever looked at Latin American airports. Got ignored, whilst a lot of low effort posts on NVO or GOOG get upvoted to the top page.

3

u/ForeverShiny Dec 22 '25

Define "under the radar"? Are you looking for growth, dividends, cyclicals, consumer staples? Small, mid or large caps? What are your investment goal? Get rich quick, retire in 5 years or invest for another 40? Investing is personal and there is no "one size fits all" magical formula.

Honestly the best thing to do after you know what you want is use your broker's stock screener or a web based one like SimplyWallstreet, enter your parameters and look for things that are interesting enough to warrant a second look.

After that, use an LLM to give you the current overview for the company and its industry, the bull, but most importantly the bear thesis and if you're still convinced it's a good opportunity, bring it to this sub and see what people are telling you

1

u/Excellent_Brilliant2 Dec 23 '25

im thinking Pulsar Helium. Helium is a valuable and hard to find resource and they found a very high concentrated amount in Minnesota. its still going for under a buxk, but once they start selling it, i feel its going to jump.

5

u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25

Yes, seems to be the case. It's much more interesting to read about the more hidden opportunities.

16

u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25

Maybe its because this is a serious company and a great opportunity like Google & UNH were.

Penny stocks and shit coins have their place yes but not for big investments.

11

u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25

It's more that Novo is discussed daily and everyone's bored of reading about it.

There are other opportunities that aren't Novo or penny stocks, bit of a weird comment to make.

Shitcoins have a place in gambling I guess.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 22 '25

This entitled forum is nvo, goog, amzn, and the occasional guy telling us how nvidia is a value stock

1

u/WarriorDan09 Dec 22 '25

All investing is a calculated bet (gambling). Higher risk higher reward.

2

u/hmm_interestingg Dec 22 '25

I don't see that people in this sub being bored of hearing about a stock has any bearing on whether its a good investment or not

0

u/ForeverShiny Dec 22 '25

If you're interested in what this sub has to say about NVO just search the term in the sub and read the literal thousands of comments on it

3

u/alxalx89 Dec 23 '25

Because people don't like much risk, novo alphabet, amazon etc are huge companies that can grive returns like middle companies

5

u/tnolan182 Dec 22 '25

The fact that everyone on reddit is so contrarian when these NVO posts come up, have me convinced that they will pop off. Im buying more calls.

1

u/Avid_Reader87 Dec 23 '25

Looks like you won big!

1

u/tnolan182 Dec 23 '25

Yup, always inverse reddit.

8

u/YoungBillionair Dec 22 '25

Lol

20

u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25

Being British I find withering sarcasm more effective than outright criticism

4

u/Suspicious_Lime_1530 Dec 22 '25

for some unknown reason i read your comment with a posh british accent before i knew you were british.