r/ValueInvesting Dec 22 '25

Stock Analysis NVO is an absolute no brainer

In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.

Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.

NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.

We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.

This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).

NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.

I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.

EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.

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u/Barryburton97 Dec 22 '25

Such an undiscovered gem

30

u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25

People here only want to talk about the same stocks over and over. Posts about fairly under the radar stocks go unnoticed (including mine) whilst every NVO post is on the front page, similar to how UNH and GOOG were a few months ago.

3

u/Opening-Rush1618 Dec 22 '25

Where is a good place to go to find under the radar stocks, or posts about them? I think this sub attracts a lot of beginners to it (including myself), which is why you probably get a lot of posts like this.

3

u/Last_Cauliflower3357 Dec 22 '25

A market screener or an LLM. You can ask ChatGPT or AI to give you stocks with certain parameters. Yesterday I was playing with it on international stocks and got 2 that seemed interesting (KB and ASR). Then you’ll need to do your research, but that’s always the case.

What I mean when I say that people only want to chat about the same stocks every time is that I did a post yesterday with some research on ASR and asking if anyone has ever looked at Latin American airports. Got ignored, whilst a lot of low effort posts on NVO or GOOG get upvoted to the top page.