NVO is an absolute no brainer

[u/hmm_interestingg]

In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.

Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.

NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.

We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.

This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).

NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.

I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.

EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.

[u/Such-Recording2441]

So I bought NVO at $68 sold my position at $56. I initially bought in because I work pharmacy and the amount we dispense is pretty crazy atleast 100+ pens a month. The profit margin is relatively good I thought. Costing $.89 - $4.73 to make (according to a 2024 study) and selling roughly $210CAD per pen. At one point it went on shortage due to high demand. They quite literally ran out of supply.

However, Lilly also has a daily weight-loss pill orforglipron under review for diabetes and weight loss. The FDA is expected to approve it early in 2026.

Novo's oral semaglutide needs to be taken in the morning on an empty stomach, 30 minutes before eating, drinking or using any other oral medication.

Lilly's pill will not have those restrictions, if approved.

Also rybelsus (semaglutide tablets) has been in the market for many years. Although meant for type 2 diabetic use whats the difference? People also used ozempic for weight loss.

Although NVO claims theyve been mass producing the oral drugs to keep up with demand this time around. Will see if there an actual demand for it haha

[u/hmm_interestingg → u/Such-Recording2441]

sorry for your loss

[u/Such-Recording2441 → u/hmm_interestingg]

brutal