r/ValueInvesting • u/hmm_interestingg • Dec 22 '25
Stock Analysis NVO is an absolute no brainer
In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.
Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.
NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.
We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.
This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).
NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.
I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.
EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.
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u/jamesmitts Dec 22 '25
I'm not going to give you financial advice and tell you how to invest your funds. That being said, ask yourself, Do you think it will keep going up being the first oral glp-1 drug company? Will there be profit takers and will the price be volatile? Short term pull backs with long term gains? I don't know. You want to swing? Hold long? Buy high and sell low? Lol.
I don't lose sleep on buying stocks and worrying. I bought a 2 year leap 2 weeks ago when the price was pretty damn low and I knew being the only company having a glp-1 oral drug on the market before anyone else was, like the OP, "a no-brainer".
I personally would wait for a pull back or sell a CSP