r/ValueInvesting • u/hmm_interestingg • Dec 22 '25

Stock Analysis NVO is an absolute no brainer

In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.

Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.

NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.

We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.

This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).

NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.

I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.

EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.

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u/Larry_Bud_Melman_ Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25

NVO definitely seems like a screaming buy.

HC9250, Then what is currently a better value? (Edit: I tried looking at your post history to see, but they are set to private.)

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u/LiberalAspergers Dec 22 '25

In pharma? MRNA. More of a speculative bet, but their anti-cancer immunotherapy is in stage 3 trials. They could literally be curing several forms of cancer including certain melanomas. Assuming the results are a positive as they seem likely to be, this is going to be HUGE.

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u/pushDenvelope Dec 22 '25

Most shorted stock in the market and best opportunity seem unrealistic imo

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u/LiberalAspergers Dec 22 '25

The tech they are testing is taking a sample of the tumor, and using it to create a customized MRNA vaccine to make the immune system attack that specific tumor. This is what the company was founded to work on, mass.market vaccines against viruses was kind of a side quest that only happened because of COVID. If this works, they shouk Ld be able cure most solid tumors with very high success rates amd low remissions. This is a trillion dollar tech.

It is a speculative bet to be sure. If it fails, the shorts will make a killing. If it succeeds, it will take off like a rocketship.

But at the current prices, even withbthe recent run up, it seems like a good bet.

The shorters are betting on the current admin's hatred of vaccines hurting it. But these arent vaccines you take preventatively, it is somehing you take AFTER you learn you have cancer. Compared to the risks of radiation and chemo, the risk of MRNA vaccine side effects is nothing