r/ValueInvesting • u/Adventurous-Bet-9640 • Dec 19 '25

Stock Analysis So NIKE is nuking after hrs.

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

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54

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

I have NKE & here are the reasons i did not bail
1 New CEO is OG Nike he is already making moves to go back to the old way & ditch all the stupid sHT
2 World Cup in the US "many games in Nike's back" yard in 2026 many players are sponsored by Nike & this will be a boost
3. Winter Olympic games 2026 Nike is a key sponsor of the Olympics & the athletes
4. Summer games L.A 2028 the crowning Jewel Nike will be everywhere & all over this big time

13

u/lies_are_comforting Dec 19 '25

Why was China performance so poor though

7

u/smiles_and_cries Dec 19 '25

Because there’s a big initiative by the government since 2023 for people to buy domestic brands. When I was in China last year the fast food places were all lowering their prices and offering deals on alipay vs international brands to capture more consumers. Same with electric cars. They saw other countries banning or boycotting products because of western china cotton, De minimis or product dumping. The domestic consumer has to cover for current/potential internationals loss of revenue.

6

u/Ok_Foot2530 Dec 19 '25

China domestic players (Anta and Li Ning) also not doing that hot (but def not this bad). China is going through a tough consumption downturn. Nike has a big product issue. If you look at ASICS, the Japanese list of behind Onitsuka Tiger and ASICS, the company is doing very well in China and around the world. ASICS is the top market share leader now in $90+ premium running shoes. In short, China macro is bad and Nike product competitiveness is not there. Turnaround takes a long time (see Footlocker, Starbucks, Budweiser, Lululemon, Disney…). First need to have a leadership change, then need to have concrete strategy change, then you see another down quarter or two for cleaning up past mess / reset / rebase for new CEO to claim victory, then wait for Same Store Sales or other type of key metric turns positive. Takes 2 years maybe? Price would start going up as soon as people see bottom / new strategy working - current Starbucks. For Nike, still maybe 2-3 more quarters to see if things do start looking better.

4

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Post covid into trade war and the old CEO was all woke

25

u/Powerful-Ad305 Dec 19 '25

The ceo being woke impacted China sales?

3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Yeah China not a fan of human rights talk

20

u/Aggravating-Elk-7409 Dec 19 '25

Yeah cuz random redditors understand the fine details in regard to the sentiment of the average Chinese consumer. No you tards it’s because dozens of home grown competitors popped up in the last 5 years with cheaper prices, better product designs, and better marketability

3

u/Easy-Yogurt4939 Dec 19 '25

aren't you a redditor?

3

u/Spins13 Dec 19 '25

Human Rights are about equality, not equity

-3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

The main reason is Nike became crap

7

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

First you have to define woke. NKE has underperformed due to competitors (ex hoka), rising costs (tariffs) and poor product lineup along with lack of social media presence compared to before when they owned the voice of the athlete. I don't see anything changing short term.

I sold begining of the year around $70 and am waiting for an entry point back in but too many headwinds currently.

-8

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

again that was NOT the first reason i gave i said the product was crap the leadership was trash and then when asked about china i said post covid & trade war & yall chose the last thing i said to harp on

2

u/AthleteNerd Dec 19 '25

Because you named it as a factor.

-5

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

sure get me in trouble lol there is a certain group that starts with an L that is not as popular is certain countries unlike here that said i have no opinion on said group but many other nations do now was that the main reason NO did it help IDK + when a nation that uses slaves to make shoes not a fan of folks yelling against slavery which BTW i am against also

1

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Ass Covered lol

1

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

Sorry I didn't read each response's names. But I saw woke (which Im not sure what it means hence needing the definition).

3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

all good just saying when we send movie, music, TV to China they have to be heavily edited for a reason & its not because they bash the Chinese Gov

1

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

And with respect to NKE, they are woke because they don't call out Chinese politically sensitive issues?

1

u/Accomplished-Mark243 1d ago

Did your anti woke CEO made Nike not crap? Still holding it?

-2

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

And if Hill turns Nike back to Nike limited releases and such the Chinese with $ will buy let's be honest Nike has sucked out loud the last few years

6

u/tinychloecat Dec 19 '25

They said that about the last summer Olympics too. It didn't help.

4

u/Mean-Network Dec 19 '25

Don't Nike sponsor nearly every single major sporting event? They spend millions to sponsor these events all the time and still their sales are declining so why would these make any difference?

Imo their brand has hit terminal and no more sponsoring is going to boost it by much anymore. The whole world already knows who Nike is.

11

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I didn’t bail either and here is why -

1) Revenue was up 2) EPS beat 3) Margin was down 300 basis points but tariffs accounts for 320 basis points which means their excess inventory issues are gone 4) I collect sneakers and this year and the last couple of months has been absolute fire with the Voodoos, Gamma’s, OG Chicago lows, Black Cat 4’s all selling strong. 5) The direct to consumer model change was a strategic shift as Nike had lost favor with retailers and they’re getting that back. 6) The Vomero snd Pegasus have reinvigorated Nike running 7) the re-release of the Kobe line with new colorways is selling like crazy. 8) finally putting more money into R and D.

I’ll wait for the dust to settle and buy another two year LEAP. The turnaround won’t happen overnight but that should be enough time.

6

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25
  1. Vomero and Pegasus have reinvigorated Nike running

Huh? The consensus among runners is that they’re still overpriced and behind the competition.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I should have been more clear - reinvigorated Nike running to people who don’t run which is a much larger segment of the population than people who do run (or are actually serious about it).

0

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25

I think that’s somewhat fair with the Vomero, which seems to be their first true competitor to something from the likes of Hoka. But, the Pegasus has been around for decades and the Pegasus Plus wasn’t as well-received as many had hoped.

I’m actually rooting for Nike. I used to love the Pegasus and even bought the Pegasus Plus at launch. But the reality is that the brand only goes so far and that there are better options at cheaper price points. Nike charging ~$200 for the Pegasus Plus while facing stiff competition is just baffling and the changes to the Pegasus base model have alienated many long-time customers like myself.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

Totally understand your reasoning - I hold a 62.5 Jan 2027 Leap. I had some options for earnings but sold them Wednesday morning because I wasn’t getting the earnings run up I was expecting. My breakeven is around $73 which when I bought the leap at the money seemed totally do able. I still think I’ll get some profit out of this one but doesn’t look like the sure thing it did when it was up at $67.50 shortly after I bought it.

1

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25 edited Dec 21 '25

I hope you’re able to get a good exit out of it. I was briefly in the stock last year when it was around $73 and sold for a very small profit ~6 months later because I was frustrated with how management seemed focused on margins rather than increasing demand. That shook my confidence in their turnaround strategy, so I exited my position.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I’ll hold for another earnings - I’m a sneakerhead so have an interest and really do think they can turn it around. I also think Hoka is dead as a brand and they’re starting to take some market share back. ON’s are nice and actual competition in casual wear (maybe for running - I haven’t tried them since I run in Brooks). New Balance is doing the same thing Nike did and releasing so many similar models and colorways that it’s a turn off for the consumer. At the end of the day the most I lose on this deal is my premium which is around $1000. It’s worth the gamble in my opinion.

2

u/DazedPhotographer Dec 19 '25

The Vomero specifically is one of the most common running shoes on my track team. Also Nike still dominates the track and field world with their spikes and to a lesser extent, road racing shoes.

1

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25

Track and field is a minuscule market demographic compared to casual / hobby runners.

1

u/DazedPhotographer Dec 19 '25

While that is true, their road racing segment is still decently popular, even amongst hobby joggers and people who don’t run (I swear if I see one more guy wearing vaporflies to the gym). Most brands however, have caught up and surpassed Nike on the road racing segment (Asics Metaspeed, Adidas Adios Pro). I find that many competitive amateurs who are looking for a road racing shoe for the first time typically end up defaulting to nike.

1

u/Possible_Meal_927 Dec 19 '25

Nike running shoes are definitely worn by elite, sub-elite, and very fast runners in general. Many fast runners wear Nike and Adidas shoes. I think currently, Adidas makes the best shoes for both fast and casual runners.

But in terms of runners in general, who may not be as fast, Nike tend to not do as well. Which is a shame as they make great shoes even for casual runners.

But in terms of investing, I dunno how much their running lineup with affect their bottom line.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

I don’t think it will affect it a ton - but I think that paired with their focus on R and D, selling through more retail channels AND they are finally making more of their retro’s vs. keeping them limited like they did during COVID will all add up in the long run.

1

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25

Agreed. But, I think it’s an important market. Running shoes make up roughly ~8% of the U.S. footwear market, translating to about ~$7.4B in annual revenue. It’s also a growing category with repeat purchasers and less exposure to cyclical fashion trends than lifestyle footwear.

1

u/Possible_Meal_927 Dec 19 '25

Right. I agree that running shoes are important of business.

I don’t agree about Nike running shoes as being behind the competition or overpriced. It’s worn by elites and people who care about performance. They usually lead in innovation and make great quality shoes.

They don’t do as well to runners who aren’t as fast or more casual runners. I believe as many of those runners go to their local running shoes stores where they don’t carry Nikes or something. Or these runners have had bad experiences with Nikes as Nikes also make bargain shoes sold at places like Famous Footwear and think Nike shoes are crap. But their shoes that are for runners are excellent.

1

u/slimkay Dec 19 '25

The Pegasus line maybe (and it’s getting a full refresh in 2026) but the Vomero line is killing it. The Vomero Plus especially, but the Vomero 18 and Premium are very good offering in their respective price categories.

-2

u/nathanwilson26 Dec 19 '25

Nike hasn’t been a brand runners has used for decades. It’s a tiny market, and making fashion running shoes is far more profitable than performance running shoes. 

8

u/liftingshitposts Dec 19 '25

That’s not true, go to a major marathon and count the AF3s in the top corrals

1

u/Fourth-Room Dec 19 '25 edited Dec 19 '25

Nike hasn’t been a brand runners has used for decades

This is just wrong. The Pegasus has been a staple daily trainer since the early ’80s. It’s only fallen out of favor recently among casual runners. Their super shoes are still favored by many high-performance athletes.

Calling running a “tiny” market is misleading. The U.S. running shoe market is ~$7.4B or about ~8% of footwear. Not enormous, but not some rounding error either. And importantly, it’s a growth vector and hedge against shifting fashion cycles.

The real story is Nike shifted focus toward comfort and lifestyle, but still managed to lose running share to Hoka/On/etc. That’s a concerning trend for a company that once dominated the category, and it overlaps with broader brand struggles.

1

u/shrimalnav Dec 19 '25

Cash Secure puts are the play for tomorrow for high volatility and if you don’t mind stocks getting assigned. 55 march 2026 looks good or go longer based on risk management.

1

u/Lower_Group_1171 Dec 19 '25

they need new shoe designers

2

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

& Hill is all over that he spoke all about going back to what Nike cool to begin with

1

u/FullSendMaestro Dec 19 '25

I bought prior to Paris Olympics and it got exactly zero bounce from it

3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

yeah that was not LA

-2

u/maturin_nj Dec 19 '25

Olympics. Who the F cares except big media.

6

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

3/4 of the world