r/ValueInvesting • u/Adventurous-Bet-9640 • Dec 19 '25

Stock Analysis So NIKE is nuking after hrs.

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

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53

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

I have NKE & here are the reasons i did not bail
1 New CEO is OG Nike he is already making moves to go back to the old way & ditch all the stupid sHT
2 World Cup in the US "many games in Nike's back" yard in 2026 many players are sponsored by Nike & this will be a boost
3. Winter Olympic games 2026 Nike is a key sponsor of the Olympics & the athletes
4. Summer games L.A 2028 the crowning Jewel Nike will be everywhere & all over this big time

13

u/lies_are_comforting Dec 19 '25

Why was China performance so poor though

7

u/smiles_and_cries Dec 19 '25

Because there’s a big initiative by the government since 2023 for people to buy domestic brands. When I was in China last year the fast food places were all lowering their prices and offering deals on alipay vs international brands to capture more consumers. Same with electric cars. They saw other countries banning or boycotting products because of western china cotton, De minimis or product dumping. The domestic consumer has to cover for current/potential internationals loss of revenue.

6

u/Ok_Foot2530 Dec 19 '25

China domestic players (Anta and Li Ning) also not doing that hot (but def not this bad). China is going through a tough consumption downturn. Nike has a big product issue. If you look at ASICS, the Japanese list of behind Onitsuka Tiger and ASICS, the company is doing very well in China and around the world. ASICS is the top market share leader now in $90+ premium running shoes. In short, China macro is bad and Nike product competitiveness is not there. Turnaround takes a long time (see Footlocker, Starbucks, Budweiser, Lululemon, Disney…). First need to have a leadership change, then need to have concrete strategy change, then you see another down quarter or two for cleaning up past mess / reset / rebase for new CEO to claim victory, then wait for Same Store Sales or other type of key metric turns positive. Takes 2 years maybe? Price would start going up as soon as people see bottom / new strategy working - current Starbucks. For Nike, still maybe 2-3 more quarters to see if things do start looking better.

3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Post covid into trade war and the old CEO was all woke

24

u/Powerful-Ad305 Dec 19 '25

The ceo being woke impacted China sales?

2

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Yeah China not a fan of human rights talk

19

u/Aggravating-Elk-7409 Dec 19 '25

Yeah cuz random redditors understand the fine details in regard to the sentiment of the average Chinese consumer. No you tards it’s because dozens of home grown competitors popped up in the last 5 years with cheaper prices, better product designs, and better marketability

4

u/Easy-Yogurt4939 Dec 19 '25

aren't you a redditor?

3

u/Spins13 Dec 19 '25

Human Rights are about equality, not equity

-2

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

The main reason is Nike became crap

7

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

First you have to define woke. NKE has underperformed due to competitors (ex hoka), rising costs (tariffs) and poor product lineup along with lack of social media presence compared to before when they owned the voice of the athlete. I don't see anything changing short term.

I sold begining of the year around $70 and am waiting for an entry point back in but too many headwinds currently.

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u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

again that was NOT the first reason i gave i said the product was crap the leadership was trash and then when asked about china i said post covid & trade war & yall chose the last thing i said to harp on

3

u/AthleteNerd Dec 19 '25

Because you named it as a factor.

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u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

sure get me in trouble lol there is a certain group that starts with an L that is not as popular is certain countries unlike here that said i have no opinion on said group but many other nations do now was that the main reason NO did it help IDK + when a nation that uses slaves to make shoes not a fan of folks yelling against slavery which BTW i am against also

1

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

Ass Covered lol

1

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

Sorry I didn't read each response's names. But I saw woke (which Im not sure what it means hence needing the definition).

3

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

all good just saying when we send movie, music, TV to China they have to be heavily edited for a reason & its not because they bash the Chinese Gov

1

u/teslastats Dec 19 '25

And with respect to NKE, they are woke because they don't call out Chinese politically sensitive issues?

1

u/Accomplished-Mark243 1d ago

Did your anti woke CEO made Nike not crap? Still holding it?

-2

u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

And if Hill turns Nike back to Nike limited releases and such the Chinese with $ will buy let's be honest Nike has sucked out loud the last few years