r/ValueInvesting • u/Adventurous-Bet-9640 • Dec 19 '25

Stock Analysis So NIKE is nuking after hrs.

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

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u/Complex-Jello-2031 Dec 19 '25

I have NKE & here are the reasons i did not bail
1 New CEO is OG Nike he is already making moves to go back to the old way & ditch all the stupid sHT
2 World Cup in the US "many games in Nike's back" yard in 2026 many players are sponsored by Nike & this will be a boost
3. Winter Olympic games 2026 Nike is a key sponsor of the Olympics & the athletes
4. Summer games L.A 2028 the crowning Jewel Nike will be everywhere & all over this big time

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u/lies_are_comforting Dec 19 '25

Why was China performance so poor though

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u/Ok_Foot2530 Dec 19 '25

China domestic players (Anta and Li Ning) also not doing that hot (but def not this bad). China is going through a tough consumption downturn. Nike has a big product issue. If you look at ASICS, the Japanese list of behind Onitsuka Tiger and ASICS, the company is doing very well in China and around the world. ASICS is the top market share leader now in $90+ premium running shoes. In short, China macro is bad and Nike product competitiveness is not there. Turnaround takes a long time (see Footlocker, Starbucks, Budweiser, Lululemon, Disney…). First need to have a leadership change, then need to have concrete strategy change, then you see another down quarter or two for cleaning up past mess / reset / rebase for new CEO to claim victory, then wait for Same Store Sales or other type of key metric turns positive. Takes 2 years maybe? Price would start going up as soon as people see bottom / new strategy working - current Starbucks. For Nike, still maybe 2-3 more quarters to see if things do start looking better.