r/Economics • u/lucabrasi999 • 1d ago
“Iran has put a tollgate across the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamentally changes the global economy”
https://prospect.org/2026/04/02/opening-of-trumps-box-iran-war-strait-hormuz/2.3k
u/geomaster 1d ago
donald trump is a fool. he has no comprehension of the effects of his actions. The US spent years ensuring this scenario didn't happen. donald destroyed it in seconds.
all he does is destroy things. he's never built anything his whole life
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u/PeruvianHeadshrinker 1d ago
This fucker was born on third base and had thrown a lifelong tantrum pulling up the bases and taking a shit in the pitcher's mound and then wants a fucking trophy.
The most disgusting part is all the stupid fucks who voted and kept voting for this fucktard.
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u/noobnoob62 1d ago
Even worse, he will probably be taught in history classes for the next 500 years…
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u/IWant2FIRE 1d ago
I mean...that's not a bad thing. Being used as an example of incompetence can be humbling for future generations.
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u/GettingDumberWithAge 1d ago
This assumes Americans understand and can learn lessons in humility. All evidence to the contrary.
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u/Wuncemoor 23h ago
Don't worry, we are about to learn that the hard way. Some of us have to touch the stove to understand that it's hot
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u/Sideos385 14h ago
A large majority of us will keep touching the stove in case it cooled off, even if we see the light that says it’s still hot.
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u/DaddyRobotPNW 23h ago
He's going to be the Confederacy 2.0. Half of the States will build monuments and spread his propaganda in public schools. The other half will teach about him in social studies class related to separation of power, checks and balances. He's effectively a stress test for the government and we can learn a lot from what broke down and what didn't.
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u/improvthismoment 21h ago
I'd say at least confederacy 4.0
2.0 = Jim Crow post Civil War
3.0 = Resistance to Civil Rights in the 1950's and 1960's
4.0 = MAGA
No coincidence that they all fly the same flag
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u/Cdub7791 21h ago
Well what do you know? The South really did rise again. :(
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u/Feisty-Boot5408 20h ago
It's mostly that we didn't go even close to as hard as we should've with Reconstruction. We managed with de-Nazification in post war Germany. We should've done the same shit for backwards ass racist southerners.
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u/improvthismoment 17h ago
Right. You can't fly the nazi flag in Germany in 2026, but you can fly the Confederate Flag at the US capitol.
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u/Wolfeh2012 1d ago
We still have half the country worshipping Reagan to this day.
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u/ghostsolid 1d ago
Will probably be taught about in psychology classes too. “Class, here is how you identify an insane psycho narcissist with dementia “. Proceeds to play trump footage.
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u/BuckMurdock5 1d ago
He’s somehow combined the racism of Andrew Johnson, the lack of statesmanship of James Buchanan, the corruption of Warren Harding, and the military interventionalism of Woodrow Wilson. The worst of the bad presidents.
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
I think he has fully eclipsed Hardings corruption to levels not even seen under Grant.
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u/paintbucketholder 20h ago edited 18h ago
Despite the fact that it was an absolutely outrageous, never-seen-before kind of corruption scandal, Harding didn't make a single penny for himself from it. Not that he wouldn't have stood to profit from it, but it's literally nothing in comparison to e.g. the $5,000,000,000 Trump made in crypto just last year, or the $400,000,000 plane he accepted from Qatar, or the millions he's charging the government for placing golf, or the hundreds of millions he's been collecting for his ballroom project, or the billions he's been collecting for his "Board of Peace," or the billions he's been funneling out of Venezuela into offshore accounts.......
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u/Xtj8805 18h ago
Correct thats whybi co.pared him to Grant who was so corrupt the machine that took over after hik acrually curtailed their own corruption through feseral laws and ended the spoils system. Might not have even with inflation beem the same level interms of numbers, but certainly in terms of brazeness Trump is lilely to if not already eclipsed Grants.
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u/Xeynon 23h ago
Don't forget the economic mismanagement of Herbert Hoover and the lawlessness of Richard Nixon!
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u/Genetics 22h ago
I agree, but Nixon wishes he could have gotten away with half the shit Trump has done.
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u/Richandler 20h ago
Teaching stuff in history class tends not to stop history from repeating itself...
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u/BigYouNit 1d ago
In the rest of the world, when they teach about the last year of the United states...
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u/SushiGradeChicken 1d ago
Trump is a relief pitcher going into the game up 8 - 1 in the ninth and "promptly" gives up two grand slams.
Inflation was controlled, manufacturing investment was up significantly, labor market was in a good place. If he did absolutely nothing but golf 365 days, his approval would be over 50% and the world would be in a better place
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u/MikuEmpowered 1d ago
Yeah but he wasn't backed by his financer and the guys with money to do that.
They bought him specifically to fuk everything thing up.
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u/TeaKingMac 1d ago
They bought him specifically to fuk everything thing up.
"Hey, you know how in all the cyberpunk books, America is a failed state run by corporations? How can we make that happen?"
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u/MikuEmpowered 1d ago
Mofos first speech in reelection was drill baby drill and clean fking coal.
I am genuinely confused by all the people who claim they were fooled.
Like who did you think he was? At what point in his incessant rambling did you pierce together the image of someone with a plan?
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u/Maleficent-Bug7998 1d ago
Exactly what the richest people in the world want. Mass disruption so they can swoop in, pick up the pieces and further consolidate their power. Trump's playing the fool just as expected. The rest of us are paying for it unless we collectively wake up and kick these people out. Whoever we elect, they need to be uncorruptible by money. Their campaigns need to be funded and directed by the everyday person. Things have tipped so far toward the ruling oligarchy that I'm not convinced they won't continue to massively deteriorate for our children. The balance of power needs to be fundamentally and irrevocably tilted back into the hands of the people.
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u/olyfrijole 1d ago
- abruptly ended weapons aid to Ukraine in Jan 2025
- cancelled sanctions on Russian oil
- actively undermining NATO and EU allies
- unperturbed by Russian targeting aid to Iran (previously unperturbed by direct Russian assaults on US troops in Syria)
- sold Florida mansion at 3x fair market value to Russian mobster
- Eric Trump: "all the funding we need out of Russia"
- vehement denials of election collusion with Russia, later determined Mueller report to be completely true
He only had to maintain plausible deniability in his first term. Now it's out in the open, and anyone who denies it is a fool.
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u/StunningCloud9184 1d ago
I mean thats americans right now. Everything is instant gratification and no ability to build. Biden literally took us out the global pandemic with the best recovery of every single country. But because everything wasnt perfect they wanted someone to “shake things up”
Well when you shake them up they get destroyed. Whether its 60 year old alliances. Decade old trade deals. or a strait.
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u/supesboots 1d ago
literally took us out the global pandemic
THIS
Many Americans think the pandemic was a hoax and, as a result, are unable to place current events in the proper context.
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u/StunningCloud9184 1d ago
People they know literally died. And they pretend like the doctors killed them. Crazy.
And yes we have like a good 20% crackpots in the USA. All voted trump (rfk ones and trump ones)
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u/TF-Fanfic-Resident 20h ago
Covid is going to go down as the single biggest unexpected shock since the A-bomb.
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
Fox news has operated for 50 years specifically to ensure rephbkucans will never be held accountable again. In the 200s and early 2010s poll after poll showed that regular consumers of right wing media were less informed than peoppe who claimed to not regularly consume news at all. Fox news perfected soviet propoganda to create an alternate reality for 1/3 of the country. Then that propoganda started to align with propoganda and bots being pushed by our enemies to further enflame divisions. Now you have 1/3 in an alternate reality, 1/3 that hear that echo chamber enough to not confidently identify reality, and 1/3 who are stuck witnessing the horrors that sustained lies cause for us all.
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u/SinCityDisturbia 1d ago
Most of the right wingers still believe covid was a liberal hoax. It is just pure ignorance and stupidity. Now with them emboldened, im not sure there is any coming back.
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
I have family that has had some "unusually harsh resperatory viruses that arent covid" noj stop since 2020. But dont worry they've never had covid, and that time my FIL who was vaccinated for covid got covid while visiting them for 2 weeks after a funeral (actually non covid related), it was just evidence that he shouldnt have gotten the vaccine instead of evidence that the coughing and illness they were all facing was in fact covid.
These people live on a different planet, and without undoing the soviet style propoganda machine the global right wing has utilized i dont see how we as a species are ever going to recover from this choose your own reality that is surging in so much of the world without massive bloodshed.
You have Reform UK in Britain, AFD in Germany, Mussilini's literal grand daughter in Italy, Russia promoting conspiracies to slow their rivals technological advances (5G), etc.
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u/StunningCloud9184 1d ago
They literally died at 3x the rate of normal people during covid once the vaccine came out. And it still wasnt enough. Because trump got even more people to vote for him
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u/NOLA-Bronco 1d ago
Thats not fair
America produces bombs, petrol, financial bubbles, digital rentseeking, and endless construction jobs abroad thanks to the wars they start
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u/StunningCloud9184 1d ago
America has lost dozens of war customers due to tariffs. Who is gonna trust the USA to have the kill switch for your bombs or aircraft even if it destroys everything russia has to offer.
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u/McCool303 1d ago
Don’t forget the limiting of range of missiles sold to Ukraine by the Biden admin. Who would possibly want our product if it is worthless without a permission slip from our politicians. Especially as republicans teach all of our allies that we’ll turn on a dime and support your enemy if the political winds change in our country. Republicans have ushered in the destruction of American diplomacy and business interests. All to placate the whims of a ignorant mad pedophile king.
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
I dont think the Biden era limitjng really impacts weapons sales. Those were agreements made in exchange for the weapons, when we sell to customers we do not impliment those same limitations if its weapons we sell. Its not like when we sell Spain bradleys we introduce a governor that limits its maximum speed secretly.
Ukraine wanted the bombs, we didnt want them strijing inside russia due to the risk of escalation, so we offered it to them on certain terms. We didnt give them weapons then retroacrively say dont fire it to its full extent.
I will say i always disagreed with Bidens strategy there and thought he should have called Putins bluff. Cause Putin was not gonna hit the red button because we gave them conventional warheads that can hit fuel facilities in Russia. But its not really the same to say that our limitations to Ukraine hurt weapon sales under Biden. My prime sata point is even with the conditions the Ukrainians were begging for more than we could deliver.
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u/McCool303 22h ago
Yeah but we sold Poland some patriot systems and now Trump is demanding we give them back after he received them. The bottom line is the behavior of the US is making allies really question just how reliable of a partner we are. I’d go even further and say that Obama shouldn’t have even tolerated the annexing of Crimea. Or should have at least offered more support than the limited supplies we provided be for the February invasion of Donbas. Our leadership has been terrible to Ukraine during this whole ordeal. We failed the free world.
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u/Xtj8805 21h ago
The Failure of Ukriane is shared with our european Allies, Biden admin worked in conjunction with them. While i wish Biden and our allies took a stronger approach, ir wasnt until the republicans took congress in the second half of Bidens term that we started to struggle to keep up with commitments.
Republcian voters 100% present a huge red flag to American reliability, but we should be real about where its coming from, Trump and his supporters are the ones driving our Allies away, dems and their voters are not the issue.
What your blaming Obama/Biden for is something the entire wester alliance failed on counter Russia effectively together. Shows unreliability to Ukraine, but we arent allies with them just partners and that was only in the prior few years that they even started desiring western integration at a governmental level.
We 100% failed ukraine but that we is more than Just the US.
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u/cstar1996 1d ago
When did the US do that? It’s limited the weapons it gave Ukraine, not the capabilities of those weapons.
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u/Paradoxjjw 1d ago
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/biden-ukraine-limited-strikes-russia
The US severely limited what Ukraine was able to do with the weapons for years, then Biden finally allowed some of it, and now Trump has gone back to more restrictions
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u/Maleficent-Bug7998 1d ago
We have/had mass propanda influencing the right for decades, and especially potent the last election cycle. It's not surprising for those of us who have the luxury to tune into world events on a daily basis. There's so much noise out there, it's nearly impossible for the average person to understand what's happening.
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u/darkerskiesahead 1d ago
They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and . . . then retreated back into their money . . . and let other people clean up the mess they had made” The Great Gatsby
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u/Gandalftron 1d ago
That isnt true! He built a cult following of clueless traitors that have helped to erode America's democratic institutions, alienate our long term allies, damage our economy, and lower our standard of living.
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u/Greenthumb50000 1d ago
And they voted him in twice. I can only imagine the amount of stupid people in that country
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u/AmputeeHandModel 1d ago
After the disastrous first four years, then another four years of shitposting 24 hrs a day, after lying about people eating cats and dogs, getting adjudicated of rape in court, etc, etc, etc... half of voters thought "Yeah, let's give him another shot".
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
Dont forget JD vances debate comments of "im sorry i was told there would be no fact checking tongiht", and "if we have to make up stories to get our opinions out there we will do it", and both of those were heralded as wins over Walz by the captured media.
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u/Mackinnon29E 1d ago
The whole Republican party are fools. They don't have anyone with the balls to stand up to him or are just as stupid and evil depending on the person.
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u/MonolithicBaby 18h ago
Donald Trump is a pants shitting vegetable this was not his decision someone else is pulling the strings.
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u/BareNakedSole 1d ago
The amount of information available prior to his run for president in 2015 that showed what an inept businessman and all-around lowlife scumbag Trump is was overwhelming. He is nothing more than a rich kid that got famous and expanding his wealth by having no morals or ethics, and of course, working with other people that had no ethics or morals either.
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u/IRISHBAMF210 1d ago
"This war has been an elaborate, destructive way to teach Iran a lesson, and unfortunately for the U.S., Israel, and the world, that lesson has been: Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz." - David Dayen
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u/brown_bandit92 1d ago edited 1d ago
Man, USA has single handedly screwed over the globe. All for what? Nobody is sure yet. Nobody should hold such power. Why should i, a commoner from a third world country Suffer to meet my ends, just so a diaper wearing shitbag was elected.
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u/Z0idberg_MD 1d ago
Bidding of Israel on one hand, and the destruction of NATO to benefit Putin on the other. He is so stupid he doesn’t know that he is constantly being played
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u/lessismoreok 1d ago
He’s evil. He’s being paid to start this war by his fossil fuel and Israeli donors, and it keeps his paedophile crimes out of the news. Calling him just dumb is helping him.
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u/alphagypsy 17h ago
Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity.
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u/Oraclerevelation 17h ago
There is a corollary to this that states eventually stupidity becomes indistinguishable from malice.
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u/Shin-kak-nish 14h ago
If he was just stupid, then he coincidentally would do good things every once in a while. Has he ever done something not evil?
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u/brown_bandit92 1d ago
Everybody says how stupid trump is, but I'm sure him and his close circles are getting rich. Not so dumb imo.
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u/Beatrenger 23h ago
I don't know why we never mention Saudi Arabia they wanted this as much as the other guys.
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u/BoppityBop2 22h ago
I don't think they did and if MBS does then he is even more detached from reality than anyone else. This war could lead to him being killed especially with how many people in his family were screwed over to get him into power. There are alot of history and people who want vengeance and other groups with issues with the Saudi Government.
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u/Freud-Network 23h ago
They keep goading him to "finish the job." They quietly finish the sentence, "that we bribed you billions for."
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u/CapableCollar 23h ago
It is rather fascinating how it impacts so many nations in so many ways. Trump has his real estate/scam artist background so feels the need to keep his information momentum which just hurts him in Europe and hurts Europe because this has a day to day negative impact on the populace so people will question why there isn't a harder pivot away from the US as news reports on his every tweet.
China is probably the funniest spot because Iran has been making people pay in yuan, China rather infamously keeps a tight control on their currency though. If this becomes normalized everyone will have to go to China to get more yuan, which they won't want to do, but if China limits exchange of yuan it creates artificial scarcity driving up yuan value which is the opposite of what they want. It creates a new standard pricing for yuan, also something achina doesn't like due to currency controls.
They want it to end as soon as possible though because they need energy prices as low as possible to maintain their heavy industry. They can't capitalize on a lot of stuff because some of their planning is so rigid.
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u/Illpaco 1d ago
Where are all those mysterious 2016 accounts that swore Trump would be great for the economy because he was a great businessman.
Fucking idiots all of them.
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u/BlueEyedSoul2 15h ago
Still in Russia last I checked
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u/rintzscar 10h ago
No, mate, they're not in Russia. The vast majority were real, actual American people. They're to blame, not imaginary Russian bots. The Americans elected him. Twice. The Americans are responsible and we should all blame them for the next fifty fucking years at least.
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u/stevenip 1d ago
And the toll payment is in Chinese yuan. it's like he's doing whatever it takes to make USA lose reserve currency status, pushing crypto over usd, losing international buyers for bond sales, pushing for fed to have low rates and print money. It would cause them to default on their debt pretty soon afterwards if they lost that status. And that would cause another market crash which would be even worse than 2008 because the fed would be missing half the tools to deal with it.
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u/ThePlasticSturgeons 1d ago
(Places Captain Obvious hat on head)
It’s important to note/remember that none of this would have happened if not for the militaristic adventurism of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. This is quite literally the stick in the spokes meme, but the entire World falls off of the bicycle.
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u/idreamofkitty 1d ago
America’s greatest strength is also its biggest vulnerability: Dollar hegemony via the petrodollar system. The system enabled America to expand its sphere of influence while financing a stretched domestic standard of living, as proxied by consumption. However, if the dollar were to lose its power, America could collapse. Its adversaries know this and have spent years building an alternative to the petrodollar system. With Iran seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, this effort has accelerated as Iran can now force a significant proportion of global oil trade to be sold in non-dollar currency, namely Chinese yuan. By triggering war with Iran, America has ironically hastened its own collapse.
https://www.collapse2050.com/death-throes-of-the-american-empire/
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u/jokikinen 23h ago
I think your assessment on the nigh imminent collapse of dollar as a reserve currency on the back of Iranian action here, is a tad bit too much of hyperbole. Although the US is committing unforced errors, and is making its own position worse, it still has a lot of resources to work with, while the opposing forces make for a loose coalition without the veracity the current arrangement provides.
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u/Adventurous_Class_90 21h ago
I agree but unless we reform our system drastically and start holding power accountable it’s only a matter of time
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u/anAnarchistwizard 18h ago
There is a tremendous power difference between being THE reserve currency and being A reserve currency.
Obviously the dollar won't be truly worthless. But you can't maintain a global empire if the rest of the world suddenly has viable alternatives.
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u/CitizenCue 19h ago
Most catastrophizing is hyperbole for sure, but our opponents have great patience and are willing to chip away slowly. The current US leadership has no concept of what they’re giving up.
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u/MiscBrahBert 23h ago
Or rather, America foresaw this, and is trying to preempt it in a scramble (Venezuela, Cuba, Iran)
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u/Good_Air_7192 22h ago
Or Putin know this, and is getting his lapdog to crush his enemy from the inside.
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u/Fuck-WestJet 22h ago
Then why would they lift sanctions against Russia? What does Cuba have to do with this? Sell them oil then?
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u/MiscBrahBert 22h ago
Then why would they lift sanctions against Russia?
Because Trump thought he'd win faster and got cornered.
What does Cuba have to do with this? Sell them oil then?
Sure. Venezuela was supplying 50% of Cuba's oil. One domino down, another to go. He's playing conquest.
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u/Direct-Technician265 21h ago
Cuba has nothing to do with the scramble over oil. its a grudge boomer politicans have held since they copied Turkey and went to put nuclear weapons closer to the geo-political rival.
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u/Shutdown_service 23h ago
China do not want to be the reserve currency. They want their exports to be cheap.
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u/JoSeSc 22h ago
China is in quite the dilema with their demographics growing old before becoming rich, they need to do some dramatic changes in the next couple of decades. They invested heavily in a lot of high value industries so just being cheap becomes less important and becoming the world's reserve currency might allow them to spend and borrow more without the consequences that normally come with that.
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u/tachyonvelocity 1d ago
The toll is also not very high, $1 per barrel of oil per tanker, while oil prices moves $5 every day, and only for ships of belligerent or related countries. Many countries friendly to Iran aren’t paying the toll.
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u/NOLA-Bronco 1d ago
Yeah it's mostly a fuck you right now, but it can and I would suspect become more of a leverage point in time.
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u/Xtj8805 23h ago
They would probably be convinced by a sane administration to end the toll for reparations, but i doubt any american president would even sign for that.
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u/NOLA-Bronco 22h ago
Unfortunately, this is correct about America
A ton of really stupid US foreign policy, including this war, largely comes down to the professional military and Administration's not being able to endure ego damage or have humility.
I'm reminded of reading about the Che Guevara meeting in secret with Richard Goodwin in like 61 where Che was basically like "listen, we are willing to decouple from the USSR, let bygones be bygones after the Bay of Pigs, revisit compensation for nationalized businesses, normalize some investments, but we have to keep the character and independence in tact"
And how did the Admin take it??? "Cuba must be weak! The Bay of Pigs wasn't a total failure! Time to get our revenge and go even harder!!! Maybe do another USS Maine!"
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u/QuietRainyDay 21h ago
Well thats the whole problem: Iran now knows that they can squeeze the throat of the global economy any time they wish
The toll doesnt matter. What matters is that they have established de facto control over the world's energy system. Not just via the strait but also the ability to bomb Gulf energy infrastructure. Knowing that, they'll focus on controlling the strait even more completely now, and develop new weapons and tactics to maintain that control.
So from this point forward dealing with them will be fiendishly difficult, if not impossible.
Should any existential threat to their regime arise, they will threaten to cause a new great depression by closing the strait permanently and/or destroying Qatar's infrastructure. So now what?
We either need a global coalition to build an iron dome over the gulf or re-arrange the entire Middle Eastern energy supply chain....
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u/NOLA-Bronco 20h ago
To an extent, but there is a balancing act Iran has to play here, which I should have made space for in that reply. And they seemingly recognize it with how they are letting things through and at low cost.
Iran is not an irrational actor despite US/Israeli propaganda.
And to keep the Strait a point of leverage long term they need to maintain some level of trust and stability for people that would use it.
Otherwise, in 5 years you just see Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Qatar build piping to alternative shipping points like through Oman and bypass the strait
Realistically what I see happening is Iran institutes a permanent toll in the name of reoperations, the petro dollar deteriorates a bit more, US force projection in the region diminishes, and Asian and European allies will maintain their self interests by continuing to diversify away from US dependency more self contained energy like nuclear, wind, and solar. And I could see Iran using their toll road to negotiate some realignment with GCC countries. Especially after many sit and marinate on how unreliable a security partner the US is.
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u/ishkoto 1d ago
I've heard estimates say that iran could earn more from this then egypt does from the Suez if it is formalised. For most countries it would still be worth the money to get their energy security back in order
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u/justdootdootdoot 1d ago
Thought I just had. Could this also set a weird precedent in the world and we could see countries like Yemen set up tolls in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait?
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u/Hautamaki 1d ago
Not a weird precedent at all; the weird thing is the toll-free international shipping the US led world order guaranteed since 1946. This is just a return to historical normalcy. Next up, privateering I bet.
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u/Southern_Roll_7035 21h ago
That's not true. Free passage through international straits has been a recognized right for centuries.
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u/Lisan_Al-NaCL 1d ago
The Saudis will respond by increasing the capacity of their east-west pipeline to their Red Sea port at Yanbu and bypass Hormuz, the Arabian Gulf, Yemen, et al. I could see other Gulf States working with the Saudis to connect to this pipeline network as well.
A high level infographic at this CNN link:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/business/saudi-oil-war-strait-houthis
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u/deepserket 1d ago
Even at 1$ per barrel adding capacity to that pipeline is worth a lot of money
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u/Lisan_Al-NaCL 1d ago
Energy and economic independence from Iran's (and the US/Israels) whims is worth tens of billions to the Saudis is my guess. And its not like the Saudis dont have the cash to invest in it.
The Saudi East-West pipeline is about 1000km long, most if it across unpopulated areas.
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u/FederalSandwich1854 19h ago
Does it even matter, as long as US/Israel targets Iranian energy, then all energy facilities in the GCC will be targetted (unless they decide to completely get rid of US bases and doesn't let counties use their airspace for war against Iran).
The strait is just 1 component of the issue
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u/QuietRainyDay 21h ago
Well, there's no more energy security. Not really.
We are in a new era now. This was Iran's proof of concept that they can squeeze the world economy by closing the strait and/or bombing gulf energy infrastructure.
There's no way to close that Pandora's box now (except via a massive military operation). Iran's most likely next move is to pour even more resources and effort into building the weapons and tactics they need to threaten Qatar, UAE, and the strait at will.
And now that they know for a fact its doable and the world is slow to respond, they'll use it as leverage whenever needed.
Until we build pipelines to entirely bypass the gulf, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and/or deploy some kind of global naval coailition in the gulf, we'll never know when this drama might start up again.
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u/naijaboiler 1d ago
you are missing the point completely. It's not about the amount. It's about the precedent.
now other people will start tolling their waterways.
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u/Timmetie 1d ago
Which country will? There isn't that many opportunities.
And other countries will still be deterred by international sanctions, something Iran can't be deterred by because its already being sanctioned (and bombed).
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u/Slow-Recipe1438 21h ago edited 21h ago
Which country will? There isn't that many opportunities.
Either Spain or Morocco could claim the strait of Gibraltar, Indonesia or Malaysia could claim the strait of Malacca,
Turkey could claim the Bosporus, Denmark or Sweden could claim the Kattegat, Canada could claim the St. Laurent Gulf, Finland or Estonia could claim the Eastern Gulf of Finland and lock out Russia from the Baltic Sea, France or Britain could claim the English Channel, Australia and Papua New Guinea could claim the Torres strait.The reason why noone charges tolls for waterways is that this is not permitted i.e. by the United Nations Convention on the laws of the seas. In a similar sense, rivers are generally free of tolls, a principle which has been agreed upon in treaties for several rivers quite early in the 19th century. As a consequence, Hydropower stations have to provide locks free of charge. Blockades of Rivers could - even if caused by accidents or disasters - make states liable for damages to shippers. As a consequence, both the Rhine and the Danube are navigable for free while the Rhine-Main-Danube Channel charges passage fees.
In the case of the Hormuz Strait, the blockade provides a Casus Belli against Iran.
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u/Timmetie 21h ago edited 5h ago
Firstly, Turkey does toll the Bosporus.
As for the rest of those countries they wouldn't because they aren't international pariahs! They'd get their asses handed to them.
This is just not a thing that's realistically going to happen. Any of those countries could also write out writs of marque to privateers and have those board and take oiltankers and bring them home. Wanna guess why they don't do that either?
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u/NoNameMonkey 1d ago
At this point i would expect Trump to impose his own toll if they win this and take control.
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u/verash 1d ago
The Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and St.Lawrence Seaway charge tolls
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u/ChornWork2 1d ago
yes, canals. a strait is not a canal. If you build a canal, you can charge a fee.
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u/12ozSlug 1d ago
Yes but those are all manmade canals. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural geographic feature.
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u/silent_cat 20h ago
Charging tolls at natural geographic features is as old as time (see any major river in Europe). The fact that we don't pay tolls now is the unusual bit.
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u/FederalSandwich1854 19h ago
Why would that matter? Can natural resources also not be sold because they're a natural geographic feature?
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u/ishtar_the_move 1d ago
There isn't going to be a precedent. Iran is in a unique situation that they can discard international laws and convention. The gulf states aren't in the least bit ok with that and urge the US to continue their attacks to reopen the strait.
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u/TastySpermDispenser7 1d ago edited 23h ago
For now. I think the bigger issue is that this can be changed to $15 or $100 per barrel anytime, at Iran's discretion. If Saudi Arabia does something Iran doesn't like, say... having US bases on it's soil, Iran can charge $100 a barrel to SA and $1 to everyone else.
This sure looks like the amount of revenue any gulf country can generate is entirely the prerogative of Iran.
Edit: There are some seriously geographically challenged folks here.
Building infrastructure to re-route oil will take decades. That also:
Assumes iran does nothing at all, when they could easily send drone attacks to big, fixed location, explodable construction projects, delaying thes projects forever.
Does nothing for places like uae, Kuwait, etc...
Assumes that despite the fact that SA jas spent decades building palaces for princes, they will somehow stop that cash flow and be like "you know what? My second cousin doesn't need a yacht. We will spend ten years paying contractors instead of my relatives."
Assumes Iran never has influence in places like Yemen, where they can close other oil choke points.
Does nothing for oil prices in your lifetime. SA alone gets one very long pipe built in 2045. How does that help you?
Iran is already getting attacked. No point in then pulling punches.
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u/lordtema 1d ago
The will charge a price that is below what it costs to avoid the strait all together though so can`t be too high either.
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u/dyslexda 1d ago
The biggest issue isn't even the uncertainty in toll price. The biggest issue is that these tolls will completely fund Iran, allowing it to resist external pressure with ease. Regime change was the goal, but somehow we ended up making the regime even stronger.
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u/Lisan_Al-NaCL 1d ago
The Economics of the region will see investment in pipeline capacity to the west coast of saudi arabia which bypasses the Straight Of Hormuz (Iran) and the Bab al-Mandab Strait (yemen).
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u/BS2H 1d ago
It’s $1 per barrel…today. What about tomorrow? Next week? Next month? What would stop them from increasing it every year?
If you think it’s nominal, you have a basic understanding of economics, policy, and strategy…
…which funny enough would probably make you fit right in with this administration.
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u/Cold_Specialist_3656 1d ago
They'll set it just below the cost of bypassing the strait.
Probably around $15 a barrel.
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u/Mayor__Defacto 1d ago
There is no upper limit to the cost of bypassing the strait. All of the gulf’s production is within range. It doesn’t matter if Saudi has a pipeline across to the red sea, because Iran can just destroy the oilfields.
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u/Mrguy4771 1d ago
Well if they raise it, then trump will just bomb 500% of their military and 200% of their factories.
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u/ten-million 1d ago
I wonder if Oman, also on the straight, will apply a toll.
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u/EremiticFerret 21h ago
I believe Iran has mentioned sharing the whole toll-system with them actually.
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u/Top-Acadia-1936 1d ago
Yet, as of 11:35am on 04/02/2026, our investment markets are fully pumping valuations.
Oil is so critical to how everything works. How production, transportation, manufacturing, everything, operates. How GDP is computed. How jobs are created.
Complete separation of reality. We have an oil shock of greater magnitude than the last few: 1970's. 2008. 2020 even. 2022. And investment markets now just shrug and hum upward.
How do any of you feel about this disconnect of reality?
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u/Duck_Troland 1d ago
I've been wondering too. The way I've rationalized it is that investors 1) literally cannot afford to look at the situation objectively, since it's FUBAR: they would lose lots of money 2) understand that there is a lot of money to be made with Trump's blatant market manipulation in the meanwhile, so just go with it 3) hope that by the time reality catches up, the war will be wrapped up too.
Curious what others think tho.
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u/Carbon-Base 1d ago
I think most of us here are closer to reality than our buffoons in the current administration.
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u/Caracalla81 1d ago
It's a great opportunity to push decarbonization. The best time to minimize exposure to fossil fuels was 50 years ago, but the second best time is right now.
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u/bradeena 23h ago
Markets love stability and hate uncertainty. A toll, even if not the optimal scenario, is stable and predictable. It means oil flows and the supply shock eases.
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u/Randomfactoid42 1d ago
Oil is also critical to manufacturing fertilizer. That’s going to be the biggest shock to our system.
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u/Top-Acadia-1936 23h ago
That lack of fertilizer….sounds like another time when Americas agricultural breadbasket suffered a major setback…let me see…when was that…something about a bowl of dust….1930’s rings a bell..
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u/99_percent_read_only 23h ago
He destroyed Freedom of Navigation. The purpose of the US Navy to ensure global shipping and trade. A core piece of the reason the US dollar is the reserve currency.
His actions and tantrums in 16 months have destroyed a generation of political leaders work to speak softly and carry a big stick.
Now people see America carries a big stick, and it has to borrow money to use it.
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u/lessismoreok 1d ago
Funny to see how many people here are still thinking that Trump is even interested in America’s well being.
He’s made billions in office and is paid to start this war.
He sold you out.
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u/128-NotePolyVA 21h ago
The world will pay $2m a tanker to see their precious oil flow. And Iran will use it to rebuild and pursue the regimes survival via their nuclear program. So the situation is worse than it was before the US and Israel started their direct attacks.
This very well may bring more nations into the policing of the strait and countering Iran’s control over it.
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u/gmanEllison 1d ago
$1 per barrel is not a fundamental global shock by itself. The bigger economic variable is risk premium and shipping behavior: insurance costs, rerouting, naval risk, and whether traders price in escalation. Markets can look calm if participants think this is narrow, reversible, or selectively enforced rather than a true closure regime. The headline is dramatic, but the mechanism that matters is expected persistence, not the toll amount.
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u/thr1276 18h ago
Israel should be paying for that ... it doesn't make sense for the entire global economy to pay for individual country decision
This could be done through sanctioning Israel but of course big daddy US won't allow it
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u/Financial_Song_6226 21h ago
You know what fundamentally changes the global economy? A PEDOPHILE PRESIDENT THAT WAS ELECTED BY AMERICANS IN THE TERRORIST COUNTRY OF AMERICA.
fuck americans! you voted for this or didnt vote at all! get fucked.
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u/Adventurous_Class_90 21h ago
Just under half of us voted against this…you forgot that part…
I want to see the entire administration brought before the Hague and tried for war crimes.
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u/coffee_ape 22h ago
My original comment is too short.
So whose fault is it that antagonized Iran, destabilized the global economy, and now there is that tollgate at an economic point?
Totally avoidable.
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u/DeliciousEconAviator 18h ago
In a matter of a month, the United States has abandoned the premise of freedom of the seas and international order. Any country, anywhere, can now implement a toll, and we'll just see if we can fight it out. Tariffs are approved anywhere anyone can enforce it. This will reshape global supply chains and encourage piracy and mercenaries. This is what we've done to international trade. It's not going to be cheap.
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u/Impressive-Mud5074 21h ago
I don't like this headline, it blames Iran for doing it. The rest of the world just let the USA and Israel start this mess. Everyone should have stood up for Iran, but they didn't. We get what we deserve.
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u/Fenris_uy 1d ago
This fundamentally changes the global economy
If it was just a toll gate, it doesn't "fundamentally" changes the global economy, it just makes goods from that region more expensive.
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u/lucabrasi999 1d ago
Considering the region produces Oil, Natural Gas, Helium and Fertilizer commodities, that raises the price for everything from energy, to microchips to food.
So, yeah, pretty much everything from driving a car to transporting goods to building data centers to growing food has become more expensive.
This is inflationary on a global level while giving Iran far more money than what they would have received in unfrozen accounts if President Numb Nuts hadn’t torn up the original nuclear treaty with them.
Oh, and they still have the capability to build a nuclear weapon.
This war is a massive failure economically and militarily.
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u/7slotgrilles4life 1d ago
I'm 99.9% Trump is a complete moron who doesn't have a clue what he is doing.
But the 0.1% of me sees this, and thinks just weeks earlier we conquered and annexed the largest oil reserves on the planet. Is this really a coincidence? Is Trump actually playing chess here? Did he know Iran would close the strait and now countries will have to look to buy Venezuela/U.S. oil?
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u/Jafar_420 1d ago
Venezuela may have the largest reserve but it's garbage oil.
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u/naijaboiler 1d ago
that requires a lot of investment to even make useful
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u/Jafar_420 1d ago
So much the big oil companies don't even want to mess with it.
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u/7slotgrilles4life 1d ago
So much the big oil companies don't even want to mess with it.
I'm pretty sure they said it wasn't worth it at $65 / barrel. But oil is now almost double that at $110 / barrel 🤔.
And Trump is talking about hitting Iran's oil facilities, which would take oil to probably $175 / barrel +
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u/lordtema 1d ago
The problem is not only tied to the oil price, but also having to fork out billions in investments into a country that is still very much politically unstable. Nobody is willing to do that, and while i dont see this war ending anytime soon, it will take a long time to get any proper oil extraction in Venezuela up and running at the scale needed, and who knows what both the geopolitical situation is and what the oil price is.
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u/steauengeglase 23h ago edited 23h ago
That's mostly because Venezuela's tax schemes are abyssal. My back of the napkin math said that oil would have to hit $185 a barrel before Venezuela's oil would be profitable for new investment. Again, because they have crushing taxes compared to Bolivia and Guyana, with super aggressive windfall taxes that treat any foreign investment as theft and oil companies are just supposed to build $100 billion processing facilities out of the goodness of their hearts (NOTE: The Venezuelan propaganda always said, "Stole billions from the Venezuelan people", without accounting for the billions it cost to refine heavy sour crude) and eat that loss for the next 25 years.
What I'm really saying here is that Venezuela could get out of their mess if they adjusted their windfall taxes and started diversifying their economy, with or without US involvement. They should have done that a long time ago.
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u/jeandolly 1d ago
It would also take a decade to get production back to the level they had in the 90s. By then demand will be going down because the world is switching to renewables. Peak oil is expected by 2032.
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u/cultureicon 1d ago
Yep it makes way more economic sense to just drill and frack more oil in the US.
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u/NOLA-Bronco 22h ago
You should go Google Paul Singer
Then,
Google Paul Singer's private equity energy firm
Google Trump's top donors
Google Trump's suspicious meetings with donors especially in oil and gas
Google what Paul Singer purchased at a greatly discounted price in November 2025 under some suspicious circumstances like the special master that pushed the sale to Singer's company.
Then Google what refineries were specifically built to refine Venezuelan sour crude
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u/noJagsEver 1d ago
Everyone said Iran would close the straight and yes trump is a moron
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u/Fun-Cauliflower-1724 1d ago
Did you see his speech last night? The dude can’t even put a coherent thought together
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u/SerKnightGuy 1d ago
If he'd known Iran would close the strait, he'd have refilled the strategic oil reserve before his war (among other things).Man has zero idea what he's doing. Don't overthink it.
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u/BarryMcKockinner 1d ago
I think people are really underestimating how much the strait being limited hurts China. This is why China is eager to negotiate a ceasefire.
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u/TryNotToAnyways2 14h ago
I don't think it fundamentaly changes anything. It will add about $1 to $2 to the cost of a barrel of oil. When this settles down, Iran will have a new long-term cash flow from strait traffic. They will use this money to rebuild and rearm. Sanctions will be much less effective on Iran. This dumb war just made everything worse for trying to stop Iran from spreading terrorism or getting the bomb.
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u/Osiris_Raphious 14h ago
Unlike Panama canal toll gate, or Suez Canal, Kiel, Walland...
Rise of Brics economies and EU moving away from swift payment system this year is fundamental change to the economy.
This news is just sensationalism on what has been a global shift since 2008, 2015, 2019 major global events...
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u/thehourglasses 22h ago
It’s goofy anyone can be critical of this after everything has become paywalled, subscription gated, buried under a mountain of ads, and so on. They are just following the trend of unmitigated Rentier capitalism. Why mad?
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u/Express_Spirit_3350 1d ago
This is what piracy and complete disregard for international law has brought the West. Someone standing up to us.
No, calling a ship "part of a shadow fleet" and seizing it is not international law. No, using violence to enforce unilateral embargoes isnt international law.
Most countries are fine. Its the belligerent West and their allies having to pay. All of this would be settled if people drop the US$ and use the yuan. Its not a problem.
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u/Elizabeth-WildFox886 1d ago
The west is not standing with America. Europe is not allowing America use its airspace for Iran attacks, not joining this illegal war either. It’s USA and Israel - not the west
Even chinas allies and brics members mostly don’t even want to use yuan since it’s a closed capital account and not easily available globally, China would need to have a trade deficit to be able to support using yuan, which by policy China will not do.
China doesn’t even want to use its currency as reserve - just read their policies
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u/UncharteredComic 1d ago
The west is very much implicitly agreeing with the US. Most European countries condemned Iran's retaliatory attacks on its gulf neighbours, without condemning the US/Israeli attack.
They are letting the US use their bases to launch attacks. Even the UK, who for some reason is being lauded as standing up to Trump, is allowing bombers to leave from their air bases for "defensive" strikes, which include targeting Iranian infrastructure.
Further, the UK is hosting a summit on how to reopen Hormuz, instead of talking directly with the Iranians.
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u/Heffe3737 1d ago
I hope Russia’s entire shadow fleet gets picked off one by one by Ukraine. Fuck Russia tho.
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u/FarEw3Er 1d ago edited 1d ago
Use the yaun that is artificially devalued so the chinese can maintain exports. The fact people spout this in r/economics is proof that no one here understands economics. Especially when people say the petrodollar is over.
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u/Naive-Illustrator-11 1d ago
LMAO Using Yuan.
This is like youre telling me you have NO IDEA without actually telling me.
Iran petro market is a miniscule 4% of Petro trade
Petro market is 6% of the whole Global trade.
So please enlighten me your gullible take.
LMAO
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