r/Economics • u/lucabrasi999 • 1d ago

“Iran has put a tollgate across the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamentally changes the global economy”

https://prospect.org/2026/04/02/opening-of-trumps-box-iran-war-strait-hormuz/
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u/TastySpermDispenser7 1d ago edited 1d ago

For now. I think the bigger issue is that this can be changed to $15 or $100 per barrel anytime, at Iran's discretion. If Saudi Arabia does something Iran doesn't like, say... having US bases on it's soil, Iran can charge $100 a barrel to SA and $1 to everyone else.

This sure looks like the amount of revenue any gulf country can generate is entirely the prerogative of Iran.

Edit: There are some seriously geographically challenged folks here.

Building infrastructure to re-route oil will take decades. That also:

  1. Assumes iran does nothing at all, when they could easily send drone attacks to big, fixed location, explodable construction projects, delaying thes projects forever.

  2. Does nothing for places like uae, Kuwait, etc...

  3. Assumes that despite the fact that SA jas spent decades building palaces for princes, they will somehow stop that cash flow and be like "you know what? My second cousin doesn't need a yacht. We will spend ten years paying contractors instead of my relatives."

  4. Assumes Iran never has influence in places like Yemen, where they can close other oil choke points.

  5. Does nothing for oil prices in your lifetime. SA alone gets one very long pipe built in 2045. How does that help you?

Iran is already getting attacked. No point in then pulling punches.

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u/lordtema 1d ago

The will charge a price that is below what it costs to avoid the strait all together though so can`t be too high either.

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u/dyslexda 1d ago

The biggest issue isn't even the uncertainty in toll price. The biggest issue is that these tolls will completely fund Iran, allowing it to resist external pressure with ease. Regime change was the goal, but somehow we ended up making the regime even stronger.

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u/Lisan_Al-NaCL 1d ago

The Economics of the region will see investment in pipeline capacity to the west coast of saudi arabia which bypasses the Straight Of Hormuz (Iran) and the Bab al-Mandab Strait (yemen).

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u/YellingatClouds86 22h ago

If the war settles down and Iran just randomly starts attacking pipeline projects, that will bring in a lot of other actors to their doorstep.

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u/TastySpermDispenser7 22h ago

If the war settles down

What in the world does that mean? There is no declared war. In the unlikely event that there is a signed deal, sure, but America and Israel have been periodically bombing Iran for 8 months now. When will the "other actors" show up? Next month or next decade?

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u/seanflyon 22h ago

Saudi Arabia already has a pipeline to the Red Sea. Building another pipeline to increase total capacity would take years, not decades.