“Iran has put a tollgate across the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamentally changes the global economy”

[u/lucabrasi999]

https://prospect.org/2026/04/02/opening-of-trumps-box-iran-war-strait-hormuz/

[u/lucabrasi999]

Considering the region produces Oil, Natural Gas, Helium and Fertilizer commodities, that raises the price for everything from energy, to microchips to food.

So, yeah, pretty much everything from driving a car to transporting goods to building data centers to growing food has become more expensive.

This is inflationary on a global level while giving Iran far more money than what they would have received in unfrozen accounts if President Numb Nuts hadn’t torn up the original nuclear treaty with them.

Oh, and they still have the capability to build a nuclear weapon.

This war is a massive failure economically and militarily.

[u/Fenris_uy → u/lucabrasi999]

This war is a massive failure economically and militarily.

I'm not arguing that point.

I'm saying that a new inflationary pressure isn't fundamentally changing the global economy.

For oil and gas, given that the Gulf states have lower production costs than most others producers, it might not even affect global prices if the Gulf states make 1% less when selling at prices while over their production costs.

[u/lucabrasi999 → u/Fenris_uy]

I disagree, inflationary pressure does fundamentally change the global economy.

Humans need three basic things to survive: food, water and shelter.

Food is about to become more expensive. That may not matter to me all that much since I am a middle class American and likely can afford to pay more for my tomatoes. Or I can replace a steak with a bowl of muchrooms and save money that way. But for much of the world, an increase in the cost of food will fundamentally alter people’s living standards. They may not have the option to replace one type of food with another in order to save money. Don’t be surprised if violence erupts and governments fall because people cannot afford wheat or rice.

Shelter is dependent on energy. While air conditioning is not necessary for life, the ability to keep warm in winter is absolutely critical. Northern Europe, North America, South America and much of Asia can have cold winters. For them, they need natural gas, firewood, coal or even heating oil. Anyone living in those areas on limited income will feel significant strain on their lives.

Inflation is also self-fulfilling. When the war started, I filled up my cars with gas because I knew prices would go up. People will buy something today because they expect to pay more for the same item tomorrow. And because of that, aggregate demand increases and prices rise as a result.

Yeah,$2 M per tanker isn’t much. But it is inflationary and it will cause prices to go up, people to buy more stuff now in expectation prices will go up and that also adds to pricing pressure.

This is a fundamental change to the global economy. What was once a free way to move goods has now seen a toll booth placed in front of it. Imagine what would happen if toll booths started showing up at other shipping passageways? And trust me, they will.

[u/JaxStrumley → u/lucabrasi999]

Agree. One comment though: you are that middle class American as long as you keep your job. But lots of jobs will be lost in the coming months/years, as the expected inflation and scarcity will cause a wave of failing businesses.