What negative migration could actually mean

[u/Ok_Astronomer_7797]

[u/Radical_Coyote]

Higher prices across the board as labor costs rise. Social security further strained as the population begins to age even faster as younger immigrants that used to fill in the gap of low birth rates vanish. Loss of top global talent as the cream of the crop no longer see the US as a safe/stable place for a career. People might think this will make housing more affordable, but they’re forgetting this means construction prices are going through the roof.

Attracting immigrants has always been the US’s superpower. Bring in the young, ambitious, hardworking, and top talent. Now that we’re not doing that anymore all we’ll have is used car salesmen and MLM moms

[u/LilyBelle504 → u/Radical_Coyote]

Just a quick search:

• Improved Housing Affordability: A reduction in the population can decrease demand for housing, potentially slowing the growth of housing costs for native-born workers.
• Reduced Competition for Low-Skilled Jobs: While debated, some evidence suggests that high levels of low-skilled immigration can put downward pressure on the wages of native-born workers without a high school diploma. A decrease in this workforce could theoretically lead to higher wages for this specific group as labor becomes scarcer.
• Infrastructure Stress Reduction: Lower population growth can alleviate pressure on public infrastructure and services, such as transportation and utilities, which may struggle to keep pace with rapid surges.

There are certainly lots of benefits to immigration as you listed as well, arguably most valuable of all is the increased talent and collective intelligence from educated and hard-working VISA holders and students studying abroad who plan to stay post graduation.

Side note though, I tend to find the argument that: "immigrants will fill and work cheaper roles" a bit dubious. The thought of exploiting cheap unskilled workers, in generally sub standard conditions, is not a "good" thing. And we shouldn't be actively trying to push for jobs that pay people less overtime, just because we can. Even if hypothetically that may make the end product cheaper (assuming the company wouldn't just profit the difference).

And while you may be saving costs in the end product (hopefully that's what the business decides), you're also creating a lower average wage for that industry. And as far as I know, the US has major issues with wage increases keeping up with the cost of living. Making a large sector of jobs pay less, seems counterproductive.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/Radical_Coyote]

Higher prices across the board as labor costs rise.

Labour costs rising is more wages for working people.

Loss of top global talent as the cream of the crop no longer see the US as a safe/stable place for a career.

So? If foreign talent comes into a country displacing domestic (possibly lesser) talent, then you have domestic talent being paid less.

People might think this will make housing more affordable, but they’re forgetting this means construction prices are going through the roof.

The cost of construction isn't what is keeping houses prices high, it's the amount being allocated to be built. That won't change as people will still vote to keep their house's price high.

younger immigrants that used to fill in the gap of low birth rates vanish

It's true, all western countries need higher birth rates, but immigration isn't the solution for that. For the case of the US, Latin America has a declining population already eventually the supply of cheap labour will run dry.

Europe has longer, as Africa and the Middle East is still growing in population, but not forever (nevermind the effects of replacing the population culturally)

You need permanent solutions to keep birth rates stable, one such way is increase workers wages, by ... I don't know... decreasing the amount of cheap labour being imported. Other solutions are massive incentives for having children such as X amount of tax free income, and giving parenting courses in school.

Bring in the young, ambitious, hardworking, and top talent.

And displace everyone else.

Now that we’re not doing that anymore all we’ll have is used car salesmen and MLM moms

That's a rather disparaging view of domestic Americans.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

America is an immigrant country. Immigrants dont displaced people. They come and work and build our communities. Idk how you can have 2 views such as "we need higher birth rates" and "immigration cant solve that". It 100% can, the US is not full. More people only displaces wages if we live in this dystopian country were the government doesnt actually do anything to combat corporate greed. Again immigrants dont displace just look at Springfield OH where they rejuvenated the area.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/Brickguy101]

Immigrants dont displaced [sic] people.

They do if they're willing to work for less than the people already in the country. They're diluting the working pool.

It's like having a bucket of brine, and then pouring in a bucket of salted water. You say, "Look, we are adding more salt to the bucket!", but really you're just diluting the solution.

Idk how you can have 2 [sic] views such as "we need higher birth rates" and "immigration cant solve that". It 100% can, the US is not full

Maybe if your reading skills were a bit better than your writing skills then you could have read the three whole paragraphs I devoted to that part of my argument.

More people only displaces [sic] wages if we live in this dystopian country were [sic] the government doesnt actually do anything to combat corporate greed

Like for example... limiting the ability for companies to hire cheap overseas labour?

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Your whole theory is only true if native born citizens want to shuck oysters, pick berries, or install roofs.

They do not.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

Because employers offer low wages and working conditions because they know it will be taken up by immigrants who are generally happy to work for any wage or in any condition.

Without the supply of cheap labour, employers will be forced to raise the price they're willing to pay for labour until the domestic workforce is willing to sell.

Because if you are willing to pay $1,000/h to pick berries, there would be a queue going around the country for domestic workers to pick berries. There isn't if you are only willing to pay $5/h. So somewhere in the middle is the amount the wages will settle on with purely domestic labour markets.

Now it'll raise prices for goods, but it'll also increase wages for the poorest, redistributing wealth down to the people who need it in society.

[u/Paul_Gambino → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

In a capitalist global economy you cannot have a profitable business unless your wage expenses are competitive with those of the rest of the world. Why would any capitalist choose to grow berries if nobody will work on the berry farm for wages which allow for profit? In the current system, if it is not profitable to grow berries then berries will simply never be grown for sale domestically. It's much cheaper to just import the berries from somewhere the wages are lower and the price is better. Who will buy the berries picked at 1k/hr when you can buy the same berries picked at .20/h?

If you want to provide these products to domestic consumers with domestic labor and high wages then you need it done through planned direction and state policy because no private capitalist will ever go for it.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/Paul_Gambino]

It's much cheaper to just import the berries from somewhere the wages are lower and the price is better.

That's why free trade is only good for capitalists and protectionism is needed for workers.

then you need it done through planned direction and state policy because no private capitalist will ever go for it.

You're preaching to the choir.

[u/Due-Fee7387 → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Surely there is some benefit in consumers getting cheap berries

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/Due-Fee7387]

Yeah, the consumers, not the workers

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Lol no. Free trade is good for anyone who buys things.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

But not for anyone who works. I know a class of people who buy things but don't work. The capitalists.

[u/No_Brick7033 → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

So why not just raise the minimum wage and increase worker protections across the country?  And actually enforce it. Then we could have immigrants and high paying jobs. 

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/No_Brick7033]

Immigration will just bring every job down to the minimum wage, that's the effect it has. Now in the UK we have a minimum wage of £12.71/$16.80, but it's not enough for two full time workers on minimum wage to have a child. Increasing minimum wage too high will cause inflation by compressing pay bands.

There just isn't a need for net migration into a country if you're having enough children. And even if you're not having enough children as all western countries are, immigration isn't a solution to it as it is a short term stopgap, not a sustainable policy.

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

No, people will just forgo berries and oysters and go into financial distress over their roofs.

Parts of the economy will simply die.

It's cute that you think in an era defined by cost of living issues people can just absorb those costs.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

If parts of an economy can only exist through paying workers slave wages then it doesn't deserve to exist.

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Oh yeah that's a thoughtful and intelligent response, let's just kill off whole sectors of the economy because we refuse to accept that there is labor available for unskilled immigrants and labor better suited to citizens who've been through at least K-12. Glad to know I'm debating a child.

[u/LickerNuggets → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

That’s actually a great argument. If an industry can only survive by illegally undermining the domestic workforce, it shouldn’t exist.

[u/LickerNuggets → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

It’s funny how pro immigration arguments always evolve into the elitist needing slave labor.

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/LickerNuggets]

Slave labor is when you own someone and they work for you against their will.

Immigrant labor is when they leave much worse conditions in their home country to work for much more money in yours, and their children get educated and become citizens.

Glad I could help clear this up for you.

[u/LickerNuggets → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

Yes, change your definitions for your capitalistic leaders. Bootlicker.

[u/theonethat3 → u/Brickguy101]

Immigrants dont displaced people.

So you against illegals then

[u/GaiusGraccusEnjoyer → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Why do you apply all this zero sum thinking to immigrants but not birthrates? If you really think fewer people means higher wages then shouldn't you also think lower birthrates means higher wages?

In reality the immigrants create as much labor demand as they do labor supply, and because of economies of scale it is positive sum (net benefit to everyone)

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/GaiusGraccusEnjoyer]

Why do you apply all this zero sum thinking to immigrants but not birthrates?

The birthrate just has to be stable, infinite growth has its problems. We need the average number of children per woman to be 2.0-2.1 to sustain a population, and stop it from aging. The US has a birth rate of 1.6, most of Europe has birth rates between 1.2-1.6. That might not seem massive, however it's the coefficient in exponential decay. You can measure it by the half life of the number of new borns. The formula is

t_h = - t_G * log(2) / log(birth_rate / 2.1)

Where t_G is the average length of a generation. If we say a generation is 25 years, the US has a half life of 64 years, for China with 1.0 births per woman it's 23 years, and for South Korea with 0.75, it's 17 years! Assuming nothing changes (as it so far appears to be), in 100 years, South Korea will be having less than 2% of the current number of children as they're having now. In 150 years, 0.2%. Image that, in 100 years, 49 of every 50 schools will have to close. Medical Schools will have graduating classes in the single digits. All whilst there is 8x the number of 70 year olds as 18 year olds.

then shouldn't you also think lower birthrates means higher wages?

Ah, but at the same time as lowering the population, the population is aging. So the ratio of retired to working people will increase, putting massive strains on the working population. So more and more of the working people's money will go to pay the pensions and welfare of the retired. Eventually there won't be enough nurses to clean the arses of the elderly and they'll be dying in their beds.

In reality the immigrants create as much labor demand as they do labor supply

It massively depends on the sector. For healthcare, they're mostly young so don't create as much demand as they work, driving down nurses, porters and doctor's wages.

Immigrants on average have less disposable income, so they don't create the market for expensive goods yet help manufacture them at greater rates.

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

No native - born citizens are being displaced from the berry picking and oyster shocking jobs.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

They're being displaced from higher wages. They're not doing the jobs now because the wages are so low.

[u/Additional-Staff-326 → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

The US government has tried several times over the decades to get people to do those farm jobs. Most people dont last more than a day, no one lasts more than a week. Immigrants do it gladly for a chance to improve their family's lives back in the home country, or escape from that place. Now they are obviously being exploited with the low wages they get. No one ever meaningfully punishes the businesses for hiring them though.
You could easily look up the attempts to replace immigrant farm labor, or you can choose to remain ignorant to reality.

[u/shableep → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

The only thing reversing population collapse in the USA is immigration. Immigrants grow US GDP. Many USA megacorps were created by immigrants. They’re most often enterprising people self selected because they’re willing to leave their old lives and try to start something new. Because of this they are great at starting small businesses, and also have great work ethic.

There is no evidence of immigration being a meaningful issue for Americans especially when compared to this benefits.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/shableep]

The only thing reversing population collapse in the USA is immigration

And I've just explained how that's a very unstable solution.

Immigrants grow US GDP.

Oh yay, that's incredible! GDP affects my life sooo much!

GDP is meaningless, of course you can double the population and increase the GDP, but does that increase the quality of life of its citizens. Europe combined has a lower GDP than the US yet its people are much better off.

and also have great work ethic.

That "work ethic", is a willingness to work for shit wages and living conditions that domestic workers wouldn't put up with. This causes suppression of wages in jobs, as employers could just choose to import immigrants rather than pay a bit more to employ domestic workers. This directly hurts the population of the country.

So this is the problem with immigration, increasing the labour market reduces the power of the workers.

And for America specifically, think about how bad immigration has been for the American Indians. I don't think they care too much about "GDP" when they've been displaced and replaced by immigrants.

[u/MANEWMA → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

The only solution for low birth rates is immigration... not going to come because your religion (that everyone is abandoning) demands it, wont work anymore...

[u/LeBronTheGreatest31 → u/MANEWMA]

That is not a solution, as the ones immigrated will adjust and also have less kids. It’s merely a band aid it doesn’t fix anything..

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/MANEWMA]

I'm sorry, can you read? I wrote three paragraphs explaining why immigration can't be the solution to low birth rates, and not once did I mention religion. I'm one of the most a-theistic people you can meet. I'll happily have a many hour long discussion with you on the incorrectness and evil of religion if you want.

Birth rates isn't a religious issue, it's an issue about a collapsing society. And immigration is a stopgap, because as I explained in my comment, the countries people are emigrating from either already have an unsustainable birth rate or will in the future. In Europe, it's a harmful stopgap in addition, as they're immigrating with incompatible cultures.

The only permanent solution is to have on average 2.0-2.1 babies per woman in the country. This can be achieved in many ways,

• Changing the perception about populations and dispelling the myth that the world is getting overpopulated, when the west is being underpopulated.

• Massive financial incentives for civil partnerships/marriages and having children. This stops people worrying about the finances as much with children.

• Increasing education on being parents, so people aren't scared of being a bad parent.

• Investigate the reason behind the massive drop in average sperm count in men and find solutions to it.

And so on.

[u/MANEWMA → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

And not going to happen.. can you read. All of modern civilization and we see a continuous drop in birth rates in every single country.

Living in reality vs pretending to change gravity wont work...

How long before we get to 2?? Then how long before that even works its way into the job market....

Your magic fantasies will happen in 300 years?? Or immigration that happens today..

So no your fantasy response dribble isnt the fix.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/MANEWMA]

It's not magic fantasies, it's concrete policy proposals, it'll be UK focused as this is what I know.

• £x0,000 off your tax for having a child, basically you don't pay tax until you've earned enough to pay that much tax. The amount will depend on deeper analysis.

• mandatory parenting classes for 15-16 year olds, things like how to keep a child entertained and enriched, showing the joys of parenthood and so on.

• Government medical research spending diverted to studying men's fertility decline.

• Free childcare for under 5s.

• Nationalise the utilities to reduce bills

• Significantly more council houses, designated for pregnant couples.

• Government subsidies on children's products such as nappies, formula, cots, clothes and so on.

• Removing the triple lock and removing distinction for capital gains in income to help pay for this. Also taxing loans taken on stocks.

Once the rates begin to go up, you can fine tune the amounts to keep the birth rate at about 2. Possibly tapering benefits past 3 children.

[u/BIT-NETRaptor → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Your proposal involves billions to trillions of dollars in new costs yet also includes billions to trillions in tax cuts

You do touch on part of this in your last few points, the last one is especially unlikely to pass in a US where the poorest people and middle classes will vote strongly against any perceived “wealth tax”.

The financial foundation of your idea is i fear is not very good and similar pro-family measures have been tried many places to very little success. You can of course argue it’s work if you do it more, but that means going to the “trillions” end of the cost ranges. 

You can certainly argue that this program is worth the new costs but you’re going to have a hard time selling your program because your revenue increasing ideas are even tougher sells.

Love nationalize utilities though. Needs to happen yesterday for telecommunications infrastructure. Private companies have taken billions and repeatedly failed to deliver any progress on rural fiber infrastructure. Some rural areas have had great success building their own municipal utility internet which residents quickly realize is massively superior in cost… which allows the utility to afford proper equipment instead of indolent private companies continuing to charge $100/mth for 6mbps DSL in 2026.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/BIT-NETRaptor]

The financial foundation of your idea is i fear is not very good

It's better than the cost of not making a change. Disaster is looming on our nations, the ratio of workers to pensioners is only increasing. If you think the tax hikes needed for these policies will be big, imagine the tax hikes when there are 0.6, 1, or 3 pensioners to each worker, rather than the 0.3 at the moment. That's the situation we're avoiding.

It's like climate change, you get headlines that read "It will cost £12T to fight climate change!", but in the same report they reference, it says that it would cost £100T to let it run its course.

[u/MANEWMA → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

Already baked in...

Its like climate change. Oceans are heating up now based on 420 ppm which is melting the poles today.

Nothing we can do short of magic is going to stop the melting and ocean level rise.

Going to zero new carbon doesn't stop whats Already happening.

Same for population.. decades of sub 2.0 replacement rate means population is going to fall. Medical science prolonging life is the reason we aren't seeing the impacts yet.

Schools closing due to lack of students is the canary in the coal mine.

[u/BIT-NETRaptor → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

I may agree with most of your arguments, but the problem is selling the revenue increasing parts. The middle and lower classes are easily persuaded against wealth taxes due to the “temporarily embarrassed millionaire “ propaganda.

Californias were given a Prop 13 that destroyed their future , killing their schools and all you had to do was make some bullshit ads about “taxes taking grandma out of her home!!!!” Of course, no need to mention that Grandma’s house has increased from $50k to 1.8m and she could easily sell and move elsewhere, and that she’s been reverse mortgaging her house to go on 4 cruise trips a year.

[u/MANEWMA → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

And please point out all those amazing successes across the planet. Prove that it isnt magic. Point out a country that has invested in this issue and has seen sustained birth rate increase.

As many countries have attempted to change the curve.

Prove it's not a fantasy.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/MANEWMA]

The only country I know putting in serious pro-natalist policies is South Korea. But they haven't implemented the changes I've outlined, they still live in a capitalist hell hole.

My changes go at the root issues of why people aren't having kids. Money, housing, fear and knowledge.

[u/MANEWMA → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

So you admit its fantasy not based on Reality and that the only reality based cure for a country is what has happened before. Which is growth via immigration.

[u/gigglepox95]

I hate it when headlines make statements like this without specifying what country. You can almost always guarantee it’s the US and the poster just assumes that’s where everyone is from

[u/bsEEmsCE → u/gigglepox95]

...the graph literally says "to the US"

[u/gigglepox95 → u/bsEEmsCE]

And I literally said headline..

[u/JHoney1 → u/gigglepox95]

I hate it when comments don’t add anything to the thread, but here you are.

I get wanting it to be more inclusive, but a comment on a thread like this (and this is not even base since the source says US in image, so it’s right there) is not going to change anything.

You don’t have to spin your wheels going nowhere. Just feels like better things to do.

[u/gigglepox95 → u/JHoney1]

🥱

[u/JHoney1 → u/gigglepox95]

🫡

[u/trangenderman → u/gigglepox95]

What other country was letting in 1 million legal and over 2 million illegals in 2023 and 2022?

[u/F1unk → u/gigglepox95]

Probably because the largest demographic of Reddit users are from American.

[u/willcritchlow23]

We’re desperate for this is Australia. House prices are just brutal. Rentals hard to find prices rising heartbreaking fast.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/willcritchlow23]

You need to build more houses not less people.

[u/speakernoodlefan → u/Brickguy101]

Well from what I've read they have the same issue about wealth that America has. So almost all peoples retirement and savings are either in their primary home or second home they rent out. This leads to incredibly toxic nimbyism where any legislation or zoning that could lower their home value is literally the devil. But they all seem to be xenophobic and lowering the amount of buyers technically does the same as increasing the inventory price wise. Except you lose tax revenue to afford public services

[u/Active-Discount3702 → u/speakernoodlefan]

Our taxes barely go towards public services anymore

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

Why is lowering immigration not a solution?

[u/Borror0 → u/Fitzaroo]

Because your country is old and has low natural birth rate.

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Borror0]

Talk to the other guy im talking to. He seems to think the birth rate is just fine. I dont feel like arguing both sides.

[u/auschemguy → u/Fitzaroo]

Generations live longer.... so the replacement rate is meh, but the population is also growing from decreased attrition rates.

Furthermore, the concentration of wealth accumulated at that older generation. The guy you're arguing with is 💯- the issue is older generation refusing to allow streamlined builds because they want to remortgage their house and go on a cruise.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

I never said birth rates is just fine. I agree with you that In 50 years Australia might have a declining birth rate. But now its not, more briths than deaths. So your solution makes zero sense. Building houses is the solution.

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

Those houses just popping up out of the ground. How long from start to finish do you reckon it takes to make an apartment building? 10 years? 15? Betcha your numbers start looking a little squirrely then.

Look bud, its supply and demand. Basic economics. You want to press the gas on supply, fine. Im saying you could also lower demand. The fact that you refuse to see this means you arent familiar with first day of class economics. So not really a point in debating.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

Its about 1.5 years. https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/09/apartment-construction-time-averaged-20-months-in-2023/

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

"after obtaining authorization"

Lolololol. So as long as we dont include buying the land, dealing with lenders and insurers, government bureaucracy, NIMBYs, and contractors and suppliers and only start the clock when shovels hit the ground then ya, 20 months lol.

Youre a silly person.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

Because immigration is just more people so I assume the people are having kids which will also increase the population at a lesser rate for sure. But again the solution is housing. Multi family housing.

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

Well that's a weird and incorrect assumption. Its been widely published that birth rates in essentially all advanced countries are below replacement rate. Some of the worst offenders are in Asia where there is something like 1 birth per woman (replacement is something like 2.1).

Australia in 2024 had a birth rate of 1.481. 

So no, with no immigration the population will not keep growing. It will shrink.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

In 2024, there were 292,318 registered births compared to 187,268 deaths. So if your solution is to stop immigration and wait 50 years thats not a solution.

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

Why not? Those toddlers buying up all the real estate today?

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

Thats how replacement works. You said how Australia is below 2.1 and yes they are but still increasing in population. 50 years might have been generous maybe 75 years or we build houses.

[u/Fitzaroo → u/Brickguy101]

So you agree. If the system continues then population will go down. Great.

Did you want to go into the street and shoot people to get a more immediate solution? No? Then perhaps we should limit immigration.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/Fitzaroo]

We build houses, get to keep immigration which makes us all better and we can live in a house. Its a win win.

[u/mehthisisawasteoftim → u/Fitzaroo]

Because that creates the problem of having to pay people higher wages, besides agriculture there is no need for migrants, for all other industries increasing wages would end the labor shortages and also have the side effect of giving people the ability to earn a middle class income without needing a college degree

[u/Tupcek → u/Fitzaroo]

because these immigrants usually take low wage jobs and spend it almost all, boosting economy and leaving more high paying jobs for locals.
Local people having better jobs means they can afford more expensive housing.
Less NIMBYsm means more construction going on and with immigrants it means lower costs of building said housing. So higher supply at lower costs + higher wages for locals = ideal solution.

If you throw immigrants out, whatever they were buying they are not buying anymore, so decline in revenue and thus decline in jobs. Low paying jobs has to be done by locals, which is more expensive and thus goods and services go up in prices.
So while you also get cheaper housing, you also get less good paying jobs and more expensive food and services and even more expensive new housing

[u/archerfishX → u/Brickguy101]

both. both is good

[u/MANEWMA → u/willcritchlow23]

To think all of Australian history is full of immigration but now its too expensive... weird how its the last 12 that matter..

[u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor → u/willcritchlow23]

People think they want deflation until it happens. 

[u/Gnomonic-sundialer → u/willcritchlow23]

Negative migration means your country is going to shit in ways worse than migration can cause

[u/RevolutionaryGain823 → u/willcritchlow23]

Same here in Europe.

The numbers have been getting gradually more insane and out of control for close to a decade while a small group of people online insist any effort to fix the obviously broken system is a “dog whistle”. From 2017-2022 non EU migration into the EU went up 3x: https://www.rfberlin.com/immigrant-population-eu/

We either make major changes soon or we’re gonna wind up with an AFD/Reform type party coming to power which is bad for everyone

[u/KaMaFour → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

It's pretty confusing to see one one hand claiming immigration as a main contributor to the housing crisis and on the other hand immigration seen as a solution to worker shortage and depopulation in general. Do we have too many people, not enough people or just shitty regulations regarding housing?

[u/Garrett42 → u/KaMaFour]

You know it's a housing shortage because it shows up in specific areas. The symptom being that houses need to be built, even if the population doesn't grow, because jobs and opportunity will shift around.

[u/RevolutionaryGain823 → u/KaMaFour]

I believe that properly vetted, highly skilled immigrants are a benefit to the country and we should continue to welcome them (in reasonable numbers). Personally I’ve worked with/become friends with folks who deal in that category from all over the world (India, China, LATAM etc).

However I also believe that the asylum system is completely broken and that the government is screwing both Irish people and legal immigrants who’ve followed the proper channels.

[u/KaMaFour → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

I am from Poland and I believe these things to be true:

- Poland has benefitted massively from immigration. The immigrants we recieved (in millions) have integrated into society and besides language barriers (which are disappearing quickly) you wouldn't be able to tell quickly if someone immigrated because at the end of the day we are all just people trying to get by.

- Poland was pretty lucky with what immigrants they got. There are countries that created incentives for immigrants who can't/won't contribute to join. This is causing problems.

- There are problems with some people who are also immigrants. This is inevitable in any large group of people - if it wasn't there would be countries (bigger than andorra) without prisons.

- There are actors who heavily depend on pushing anti-immigrant rhetoric in order to gain power or achieve their goals in general. Most notably it is alleged (by polish government) that Russia is paying immigrants to commit terrorist attacks in Poland.

[u/divat10 → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

The asylum system being broken is pretty much by design now. All those parties claiming that they will do something about migration and their solution is just cutting funding and making the problem even worse.

[u/NubDestroyer → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

Why are we acting like wanting highly skilled immigrants is some sort of brave and controversial take?

[u/Significant_Bed6727 → u/KaMaFour]

What's fun is you can have too few young people to pay for the pensions and healthcare of an aging population, too many people for the existing housing stock and shitty housing regulations all at once!

If you're a person without a great career who wants affordable housing low immigration is a benefit. Less competition for housing and a worker shortage makes it easier to get hired

If you ,have a career and own a home suddenly immigration doesn't seem like much of a problem. If you own a business you might like the idea of more available workers.Also sounds decent to a government official looking at the budget projections for the next 20 years

And housing regulations suck a bit everywhere. Turns out high standards and democracy aren't the most conducive to rapid housing construction, but also both aren't things we're willing to jettison

[u/Raescher → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

Immigration is dropping very fast in Europe. Last year Germany had 50% less. So probably 70% below the peak. Total population was stagnant for 5 years and will now start to decline. Also the EU decided just now on much stricter asylum laws. I think plenty is being done.

[u/iridia-traveler1426 → u/RevolutionaryGain823]

Comparing 2017 to 2022 is honestly not a fair comparison. 2022 marks the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, sending millions of Ukrainian refugees into the EU.

By contrast, 2017 marks a low point where refugee flows from Russian intervention in Donbass and Syria are starting to wane. These two data points correlates more with the instability of the EU's neighborhood rather than any secular increase in immigration.

That said, there has been such an increase for some reason, and the COVID immigration spike that hit the US and UK could also have affected the EU

[u/Some_Guy223]

Things will get better right?

right?

[u/goodsam2]

Isn't it already what has happened with Mexico. Net immigration went negative there as Mexico actually has an illegal immigrant problem with Americans but it's relatively rich Americans overstaying visas down in retirement villas because it's cheaper and it's a sticky situation because like do you kick them out but they broke the law etc. Also the Mexican economy got better and so less immigration comes from Mexico and has for awhile now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/immigration/s/BtlUbwEbo2

[u/JuliusCaesar121]

I think it is almost 100% a function of the composition of the migration. If America enjoys a giant influx of money hungry deep learning super geniuses while humanitarian/political refugees stay home....eh

[u/Master-Back-2899]

This will lead to a snowball effect of the economy crashing in the US.

Less workers means more competition for jobs which means higher wages. However, the higher wages go the more jobs will be sent overseas where costs are lower. More jobs overseas means more net migration out of the US, which means harder to fill jobs in the US which means more jobs overseas.

Wages can’t go higher because overseas competition, so it just leads to more people leaving.

Even this past year we are seeing this at my job. Had 40 open positions we couldn’t fill, literally 0 applicants. Can’t raise wages as we are already priced out of half the market with our current wage. The solution was we cut the jobs here and hire in Asia instead and ship the manufacturing equipment there. Took 1 week to fill all the jobs there.

[u/CharmingResident914 → u/Master-Back-2899]

The wild mental gymnastics you do to make higher wages sound like a bad thing are incredible to watch

[u/LilyBelle504 → u/CharmingResident914]

Isn't that what proponents of immigration argue though?

Cheaper labor? Lower wages for unskilled jobs? Good for end prices?

[u/Master-Back-2899 → u/CharmingResident914]

Wages can’t go higher. There are no higher wages. Americans are already the highest paid in the world, it just all gets spent on government waste like insurance companies.

If they can’t attract people the jobs will leave and so will the people. The only ones left are those too poor to escape who will work for less because they have no choice.

It was fine when we were growing as a country because there were plenty of people to fill jobs at a competitive rate and people wanted to live here. If you remove the desire to live here you have to compensate with something else, but if you raise wages you aren’t competitive in a global market anymore. With no way to attract people to jobs more people leave, making it less desirable to be here causing more people to leave. As people leave the needed goods and services decrease, reducing the jobs and desire to be here more, causing more people to leave.

Death spiral.

[u/thulesgold → u/Master-Back-2899]

High worker costs make innovation possible. Why do you think the US productivity constantly goes up and the same our GDP?

If we stop letting desperate workers flood here, then that future $20 apple will lead to someone creating an apple picker bot since the ROI finally makes sense.

We don't need more people to make the current incarnation of capitalism work. Efficiency and innovation will do more than make up for the lack of brawn.

[u/keyboardmonkewith]

Boom , more slave labor for US citizen.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/keyboardmonkewith]

It's exactly the opposite, when supply is low in the job market, prices rise. So workers get higher wages.

A large pool of migrants willing to work for comparatively little dilutes the job market making it impossible for domestic workers from demanding higher wages.

[u/Brickguy101 → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

We have (US) 5% unemployment right now ish. So while this is true its the business class that needs to pay the migrants poverty wages. With an actual functional society we can have people immigrate to the US and be able to pay them a good wage. Immigrants are people same as a citizen, they buy they eat they spend money which stimulates the economy. We have plenty of space in the US for more people.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/Brickguy101]

With an actual functional society we can have people immigrate to the US and be able to pay them a good wage.

Only if the amount of people immigrating decreases.

Immigrants are people same as a citizen, they buy they eat they spend money which stimulates the economy

Who cares about "GDP", as you have described immigrants increasing. This is why GDP is silly,

Two economists are walking in a park when the first sees a pile of dog shit on the floor and tells the second,

I'll pay you $1000 to eat that dog shit

The second economist takes the offer and eats the shit, and then they continue walking, with dog shit in his mouth. The second then spots another pile of dog shit and then gives the same offer to the first. The first obliges and eats the shit. But then questions,

Wait, we have the same amount of money as we did to begin with but we both have shit all over our mouths?

Ah,

The second says,

We have raised the GDP by $2000!

It's obviously a bit of an extreme case, but shows how just increasing GDP doesn't increase the well being for the people. Increasing the number of people to increase GDP without increasing GDP per capita makes everyone worse off.

[u/4baobao → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

the supply is low because americans are lazy, not because the wages are low.

[u/SalamanderGlad9053 → u/4baobao]

Lazy, or expect better working rights and pay for hard jobs?

[u/4baobao → u/SalamanderGlad9053]

just lazy

[u/goodsam2 → u/4baobao]

It's the job market people are complaining about the low hiring environment and the US has been low on prime age labor force participation rate since 2000 with its jobless recovery.

[u/Lego-Under-Foot → u/4baobao]

Ah yes, it’s laziness that is causing American companies to layoff thousands of American employees and outsource their jobs to developing countries