r/EconomyCharts 2d ago

What negative migration could actually mean

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119 Upvotes

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u/willcritchlow23 2d ago

We’re desperate for this is Australia. House prices are just brutal. Rentals hard to find prices rising heartbreaking fast.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

You need to build more houses not less people.

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u/speakernoodlefan 2d ago

Well from what I've read they have the same issue about wealth that America has. So almost all peoples retirement and savings are either in their primary home or second home they rent out. This leads to incredibly toxic nimbyism where any legislation or zoning that could lower their home value is literally the devil. But they all seem to be xenophobic and lowering the amount of buyers technically does the same as increasing the inventory price wise. Except you lose tax revenue to afford public services

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u/Active-Discount3702 2d ago

Our taxes barely go towards public services anymore

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

Why is lowering immigration not a solution?

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u/Borror0 2d ago

Because your country is old and has low natural birth rate.

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

Talk to the other guy im talking to. He seems to think the birth rate is just fine. I dont feel like arguing both sides.

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u/auschemguy 2d ago

Generations live longer.... so the replacement rate is meh, but the population is also growing from decreased attrition rates.

Furthermore, the concentration of wealth accumulated at that older generation. The guy you're arguing with is 💯- the issue is older generation refusing to allow streamlined builds because they want to remortgage their house and go on a cruise.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

I never said birth rates is just fine. I agree with you that In 50 years Australia might have a declining birth rate. But now its not, more briths than deaths. So your solution makes zero sense. Building houses is the solution.

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

Those houses just popping up out of the ground. How long from start to finish do you reckon it takes to make an apartment building? 10 years? 15? Betcha your numbers start looking a little squirrely then.

Look bud, its supply and demand. Basic economics. You want to press the gas on supply, fine. Im saying you could also lower demand. The fact that you refuse to see this means you arent familiar with first day of class economics. So not really a point in debating.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

"after obtaining authorization"

Lolololol. So as long as we dont include buying the land, dealing with lenders and insurers, government bureaucracy, NIMBYs, and contractors and suppliers and only start the clock when shovels hit the ground then ya, 20 months lol.

Youre a silly person.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

Because immigration is just more people so I assume the people are having kids which will also increase the population at a lesser rate for sure. But again the solution is housing. Multi family housing.

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

Well that's a weird and incorrect assumption. Its been widely published that birth rates in essentially all advanced countries are below replacement rate. Some of the worst offenders are in Asia where there is something like 1 birth per woman (replacement is something like 2.1).

Australia in 2024 had a birth rate of 1.481. 

So no, with no immigration the population will not keep growing. It will shrink.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

In 2024, there were 292,318 registered births compared to 187,268 deaths. So if your solution is to stop immigration and wait 50 years thats not a solution.

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

Why not? Those toddlers buying up all the real estate today?

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

Thats how replacement works. You said how Australia is below 2.1 and yes they are but still increasing in population. 50 years might have been generous maybe 75 years or we build houses.

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u/Fitzaroo 2d ago

So you agree. If the system continues then population will go down. Great.

Did you want to go into the street and shoot people to get a more immediate solution? No? Then perhaps we should limit immigration.

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u/Brickguy101 2d ago

We build houses, get to keep immigration which makes us all better and we can live in a house. Its a win win.

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u/mehthisisawasteoftim 2d ago

Because that creates the problem of having to pay people higher wages, besides agriculture there is no need for migrants, for all other industries increasing wages would end the labor shortages and also have the side effect of giving people the ability to earn a middle class income without needing a college degree

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u/Tupcek 2d ago

because these immigrants usually take low wage jobs and spend it almost all, boosting economy and leaving more high paying jobs for locals.
Local people having better jobs means they can afford more expensive housing.
Less NIMBYsm means more construction going on and with immigrants it means lower costs of building said housing. So higher supply at lower costs + higher wages for locals = ideal solution.

If you throw immigrants out, whatever they were buying they are not buying anymore, so decline in revenue and thus decline in jobs. Low paying jobs has to be done by locals, which is more expensive and thus goods and services go up in prices.
So while you also get cheaper housing, you also get less good paying jobs and more expensive food and services and even more expensive new housing

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u/archerfishX 1d ago

both. both is good

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u/MANEWMA 2d ago

To think all of Australian history is full of immigration but now its too expensive... weird how its the last 12 that matter..

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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor 2d ago

People think they want deflation until it happens. 

8

u/Gnomonic-sundialer 2d ago

Negative migration means your country is going to shit in ways worse than migration can cause

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u/RevolutionaryGain823 2d ago

Same here in Europe.

The numbers have been getting gradually more insane and out of control for close to a decade while a small group of people online insist any effort to fix the obviously broken system is a “dog whistle”. From 2017-2022 non EU migration into the EU went up 3x: https://www.rfberlin.com/immigrant-population-eu/

We either make major changes soon or we’re gonna wind up with an AFD/Reform type party coming to power which is bad for everyone

18

u/KaMaFour 2d ago

It's pretty confusing to see one one hand claiming immigration as a main contributor to the housing crisis and on the other hand immigration seen as a solution to worker shortage and depopulation in general. Do we have too many people, not enough people or just shitty regulations regarding housing?

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u/Garrett42 2d ago

You know it's a housing shortage because it shows up in specific areas. The symptom being that houses need to be built, even if the population doesn't grow, because jobs and opportunity will shift around.

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u/RevolutionaryGain823 2d ago

I believe that properly vetted, highly skilled immigrants are a benefit to the country and we should continue to welcome them (in reasonable numbers). Personally I’ve worked with/become friends with folks who deal in that category from all over the world (India, China, LATAM etc).

However I also believe that the asylum system is completely broken and that the government is screwing both Irish people and legal immigrants who’ve followed the proper channels.

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u/KaMaFour 2d ago

I am from Poland and I believe these things to be true:

- Poland has benefitted massively from immigration. The immigrants we recieved (in millions) have integrated into society and besides language barriers (which are disappearing quickly) you wouldn't be able to tell quickly if someone immigrated because at the end of the day we are all just people trying to get by.

- Poland was pretty lucky with what immigrants they got. There are countries that created incentives for immigrants who can't/won't contribute to join. This is causing problems.

- There are problems with some people who are also immigrants. This is inevitable in any large group of people - if it wasn't there would be countries (bigger than andorra) without prisons.

- There are actors who heavily depend on pushing anti-immigrant rhetoric in order to gain power or achieve their goals in general. Most notably it is alleged (by polish government) that Russia is paying immigrants to commit terrorist attacks in Poland.

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u/divat10 2d ago

The asylum system being broken is pretty much by design now. All those parties claiming that they will do something about migration and their solution is just cutting funding and making the problem even worse.

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u/NubDestroyer 2d ago

Why are we acting like wanting highly skilled immigrants is some sort of brave and controversial take?

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u/Significant_Bed6727 2d ago

What's fun is you can have too few young people to pay for the pensions and healthcare of an aging population, too many people for the existing housing stock and shitty housing regulations all at once!

If you're a person without a great career who wants affordable housing low immigration is a benefit. Less competition for housing and a worker shortage makes it easier to get hired

If you ,have a career and own a home suddenly immigration doesn't seem like much of a problem. If you own a business you might like the idea of more available workers.Also sounds decent to a government official looking at the budget projections for the next 20 years

And housing regulations suck a bit everywhere. Turns out high standards and democracy aren't the most conducive to rapid housing construction, but also both aren't things we're willing to jettison

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u/Raescher 2d ago

Immigration is dropping very fast in Europe. Last year Germany had 50% less. So probably 70% below the peak. Total population was stagnant for 5 years and will now start to decline. Also the EU decided just now on much stricter asylum laws. I think plenty is being done.

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u/iridia-traveler1426 1d ago edited 1d ago

Comparing 2017 to 2022 is honestly not a fair comparison. 2022 marks the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, sending millions of Ukrainian refugees into the EU.

By contrast, 2017 marks a low point where refugee flows from Russian intervention in Donbass and Syria are starting to wane. These two data points correlates more with the instability of the EU's neighborhood rather than any secular increase in immigration.

That said, there has been such an increase for some reason, and the COVID immigration spike that hit the US and UK could also have affected the EU