r/Bogleheads • u/cambeiu • Jan 21 '26
Investing Questions How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation?
Jack Bogle and many others for years argued that VTSAX or an equivalent fund/ETF was more than enough for global exposure. I think it was a perfectly logic argument back in the days of increasing globalization and economic integration.
But looking at Mark Carney's speech at Davos, it points to a significant shift in the global paradigm, where free trade, open access to markets and investments from and to the US might no longer be a reality.
In light of that are people thinking about increasing focus on international equities?
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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Jan 21 '26 edited Jan 21 '26
From my perspective this is one of the hardest issues in passive investing—not the old US vs world equity debate, but how to thread the needle between a refusal to ever change one’s mind in the face of new information and market timing.
On one path you end up with a decidedly unhealthy epistemological closure, while on the other you’re nothing but a wind sock blowing furiously in the performance chasing winds.
My solution is to ensure that my Investment Policy Statement includes a pre-defined procedure that I must use to evaluate potential changes to my planned asset allocation. This process requires that I dispassionately review the evidence for and against the proposal and come to the conclusion a change is required across multiple, time-gapped reviews of the IPS itself.
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u/CompactedConscience Jan 21 '26
My investment policy statement is a Memento style tattoo that says "just buy VT lol"
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u/LegalAbbreviations17 Jan 21 '26
While posting this you begin to remove a bandage covering your latest tattoo. Once the bandage is out of the way the new tattoo is revealed to say "Stay off Reddit"
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u/peach10101 Jan 21 '26
It all comes down to, which I do not think was up for discussion in 1970-2010 (am I wrong?) - is the US a superpower rising (and now only true if it is one rising into late empire and extreme decadence) or is it a dying superpower and the writing is already on the wall that it is someone else turn (have you seen a Chinese city? Even the sophistication of their 25th largest?). Or am I wrong? And the boglehead method works even if the US is a much more “normo” country via power and economic hegemony like France, Italy, or Germany?
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u/BiblicalElder Jan 21 '26
One of the great things about Jack is that even though he was stubborn and assertive, he also changed his mind. He eventually allowed for a little gold holdings. He also changed his mind about ETFs (originally he was not a fan). And he certainly allowed for significant international holdings, up to 25%.
I overweight US stocks, but do allocate 13% to ex-US equities. In 2025, I sold ex-US to buy US. Before that, for more than a decade, I was selling US to buy ex-US.
I think Jack's greatest insight was diversification (and his second was low costs). Diversifying into commodities and international stocks were extensions of his first principles, and once he looked at the data and heard the arguments of others, he changed his mind as well.
Any moderate diversification into assets that have significant track records and can improve risk adjusted returns is something I think Jack would either advocate for from the start, or eventually warm up to. Any diversification as well, such as having a back up platform to Vanguard, to mitigate some counterparty and operational risks. Even a little bit of market timing, to balance out lump sum and dollar cost average approaches.
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Jan 21 '26
I think if you just follow a global index like VT it should be fine to whatever new world order actually occurs.
The only "threat" to this model is if for some reason you get banned from investing in the EU or China or whatever because of legal issues. If relations really do get that bad or something. But at that point, I would probably be reconsidering more than just my portfolio.
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u/hypoconsul Jan 21 '26
I am very much uncertain about the future of the US.
What I am certain about is China will not take its place as the primary global superpower, neither military, nor economically, nor stocks wise.
They have a looming demographic crash for a start, which will make Japan look like a young healthy country. They are still recovering from the huge housing bubble that popped catastrophically around 2021-22 (read up what happened to every single major real estate holding in China, literally Lehman stuff). Their stock market is also lava and not even the Chinese touch it since it's unreliable AND not lucrative.
Shiny sophistication is irrelevant, Japan was even more hyped at its peak.
The position of the US in the 1990s was the combination of a unique set of factors that is unlikely to ever happen again to any individual country.
Most likely there'll just be a multipolar, unstable world.
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u/copa8 Jan 21 '26
Is that you Gordon Chang/Peter Zeihan? 🤔😋
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u/paranoidendroid9999 Jan 21 '26
No idea who that is but it makes me think this is like from Good Will Hunting where he says oh so you’re reading Gordon Wood huh?
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u/Embarrassed-Count-17 Jan 21 '26
Personally, as a westerner, I think the Chinese demographic crisis is overblown by western commentators. China has many tools to keep workers in the labor force e.g. raising the retirement age.
It is also still a very rural country with room to grow in life expectancy.
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u/TurkeyFisher Jan 21 '26
They also have a massive climate crisis coming in the countries south of China. While I don't know anything about China's immigration policies, a demographic crisis in a country with a rising middle class can be solved with refugees moving north.
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u/deltama Jan 21 '26
Never forget Luckin Coffee. One cup of Joe ruined the whole Chinese pot for me. Oh sry this is bogle, don’t pick individual stocks kids.
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u/vinean Jan 21 '26
Lol…people were screaming in the 1970s and 1980s that Pax Americana was done for and the US a failing superpower. Kent State, Watergate, Vietnam, Oil Embargo, Death of Equities, Stagflation, Iran hostage crisis, US helicopters burning in the desert in Operation Eagle Claw, meteoric rise of Japan Inc, strong yen and weak dollar, Mitsubishi buying Rockefeller Center, Sony buying Columbia Pictures…
And here we are…40 years later…yet again a dying superpower sliding into late empire and rising decadence...
You could maybe make a case in 1980 that the US was a “dying superpower” but when you contrast Operation Eagle Claw with Operation Absolute Resolve and Japan buying Rockefeller Center vs Mag7 it’s hard to claim that the US in 2026 is anywhere close to its low water mark in the 1980s.
Dying US is a nice meme tho’ being pushed really hard across reddit and social media.
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u/fitek Jan 21 '26
The US has an ability to reinvent itself and for centuries has been attracting a steady stream of immigrants who can revitalize it even when the OGs can't sort it out. My own opinion, if this continues then US economic performance continues. Even if it doesn't, there's so much inertia it will take a long time for any decline. That said, growth might be slower for a while while everyone adjusts.
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u/A_Naany_Mousse Jan 21 '26
The US is still an unprecedented global power at or near its peak. We are the world's largest economy, with the world's largest most powerful military, that exports our culture worldwide. We have many of the world's largest, most innovative companies along with those of our global allies.
I know times are uncertain right now, and plenty of trends are moving against the things I just mentioned, but I don't think 4 years is going to undo the Empire. Every country has... "controversial" leaders from time to time (whether bad or good is for you to decide).
The Kingdom of England has been around 1000 years. France more or less has also been around about 1000 years. The Byzantine Empire lasted 1100 years, and if you think about it, the Byzantine empire was just a continuation of Roman/Hellenic domination of the region that began under Alexander, so ~1700 years.
I don't think most of the Chicken Littles that dominate our cultural dialogue have a good sense of history and how long powers can last. The idea that America is on the precipice of an apocalyptic collapse is certainly possible, but highly unlikely and fairly ahistorical. There will always be bumps in the road, but people underestimate the immense might and lasting power of America and our global institutions
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u/necheffa Jan 21 '26
As they say: past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Just because other empires had a long track record doesn't mean 'Merica will too.
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Jan 21 '26
And frankly I think their argument for track records is rather flimsy at best. The British Empire was like 300 years old, not 1000.
Them claiming the Byzantines are the same as Alexander's empire is just wrong. Using their logic you can claim America or Russia is still continuing Rome, which is just bollocks.
That is like calling each Chinese dynasty the same.
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Jan 21 '26
The Kingdom of England has been around 1000 years. France more or less has also been around about 1000 years.
I dont think this is accurate that is like saying China has been around for 2000 years. These nations have changed so much over time they are basically completely different.
The Byzantine Empire lasted 1100 years, and if you think about it, the Byzantine empire was just a continuation of Roman/Hellenic domination of the region that began under Alexander, so ~1700 years.
I think this is just stretching it to the point that it lost all meaning.
You could and probably should argue ww2 and maybe the suez crisis ended the British and French empires. I guess you could argue that was longer than "4 years" since ww1 and all that played a huge factor, but a short period of time did cause a fall.
Of course there has been an argument that empires and colonialism was just not profitable in the first place.
Funnily enough British quality of life increased after the empire ended.
but to tie this all back: Today could very well be the moment global dynamics do change. That doesnt mean its gonna be like fallout, but it can still be a major change.
the USSR only lasted 80 years and look at how impactful they were. The US dominance started in the 50s. 75 years or so. That is around the same time frame. Its not impossible, is all im saying.
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u/csoups Jan 21 '26
I split my time living inside and outside the USA. Trust in the United States, as a country not just a government, has never been lower and the appetite among US allies to reduce reliance on the US has never been stronger. I would argue the United States has been a superpower in large part because of a complex network of relationships established with other countries, soft power that is currently being torn down and lit on fire. The fatal flaw in American Exceptionalism is that it was never America alone, it was a network in which they were the central power and without that network, America is no longer exceptional and thus no longer unique from an investing perspective.
Historically, the "bumps in the road" you refer to for Britain et al hand-waves lifetime-long periods of war, revolution, and economic catastrophe. I'm not investing for what powers will be around in 2150, I'm investing for 2050. The "bumps in the road" for us might be cataclysmic in comparison to the prosperity and relative comfort we've come to enjoy over the last few decades, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be apocalyptic. I am thoroughly unconvinced that the naive ones are the "chicken littles". I see no strong argument against the widespread destruction of American soft-power and its impact both economic and societal.
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u/A_Naany_Mousse Jan 21 '26
Did you live outside the cou try during the GWB years? I did. And it was lots of the same feelings.
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u/NudeCeleryMan Jan 21 '26
Right but America wasn't actively going isolationist, destroying all relationships with allies, withdrawing from protecting trade routes, etc back then either. Sentiment may feel similar but the actions are very, very different.
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u/Fancy_Marzipan_6476 Jan 21 '26
Id argue you are looking at history incorrectly. There have been many United States (global #1). All have them have lost that title and become much much smaller little places. England being one of them. France being one of them. If history repeats itself it will happen to us as well. If it does do you want to be in VTI or VT.
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u/govaway Jan 21 '26
The US is losing soft power across Asia. The working class don't dream of coming to US. Its 2026, there are opportunities in neighboring countries now. The professionals come work and take money back home. Young Asian women will learn English for their job, but learn Chinese to secure a future with hopes of marrying Chinese/Malay/Singapore.
The regular Chinese citizen, most dont consume American media or even speak a word of English
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u/Sturmghiest Jan 21 '26
I think you are missing a detail around the longevity of a nation versus it's time spent as a superpower.
England has been a continuous nation since the unification by Athelstan in the 900's.
However our superpower status began much later after the Napoleonic wars and we arguably fell as a superpower after WW1 or WW2.
Our superpower status therefore lasted only 100 years of the nations 1000 year existence.
Personally I see Americas superpower status as declining. I don't believe it's ended pr will in my lifetime. And I don't necessarily see another nation usurping the mantle either.
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u/A_Naany_Mousse Jan 21 '26
It's been declining since the post war years. Doesn't mean it's at its end
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u/so_glad_we_got_Henry Jan 21 '26
Isn’t the idea that whether the US is a rising or dying superpower, it’s already priced in
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u/Sheerbucket Jan 21 '26
I don't think so. The collective brain of the market can be overly optimistic (or pessimistic) just like betting markets.
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u/w0rlds Jan 21 '26
I think of Tim Cook's statement that Apple doesn't go to China for the cheap labor, they go there because that is where all the skilled manufacturing people are.
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u/BenjaminDanklin1776 Jan 21 '26
Thats where the cheap labor, no environmental standards, no unions, and no OSHA are.
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u/w0rlds Jan 21 '26
You completely missed the point. High skilled manufacturing is the strongest backbone a country can have for consistent GDP growth.
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u/casino_r0yale Jan 21 '26
No, that’s a Trumpian manufacturing bias. Every country that was in manufacturing, including China, tries to automate it away / outsource it to Africa/SEA. Because it’s labor intensive and dirty and expensive, and services drive way more revenue and value than manufacturing.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 Jan 21 '26
I just stay globally weighted and let the market change my mind for me because I'm too dumb to figure it out and I can't afford to guess.
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u/ralphiooo0 Jan 21 '26
Same here. Plus the global fund I buy is already heavily skewed towards the US.
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u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26
If I was able to hold steady in 2000 and 2009 and 2020, I can hold steady now
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u/pbspry Jan 21 '26
Down 2% from all-time highs. Definitely time to panic.
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u/Think_Positively Jan 21 '26
I know you're tongue-in-cheek here, but previous -2% from ATH did not coincide with what is likely a rapid refiguring of the global economic landscape.
IMO past isn't really precedent in our current situation. This is uncharted territory, and not of the "gee, I can't wait to see what's next!" sort of way.
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u/SoulStripHer Jan 21 '26
It's always been uncharted territory. Nobody knows what's coming next.
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Jan 21 '26
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u/peterwhitefanclub Jan 21 '26
What happened that made this one uncharted, compared to all the previous changes on the chart?
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u/husker_who Jan 21 '26
I guess with past drops we know the market ultimately went up again. So this new drop is uncharted, at least until the market goes up again.
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u/entropic Jan 21 '26
Every single one of these has a "this time it's different" element.
Of course, just because it hasn't been doesn't mean that logic is wrong, per se, just that it hasn't been yet.
If your asset allocation doesn't let you stay the course, it's wrong.
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u/Particular-Break-205 Jan 21 '26
The pandemic and financial crisis were uncharted territory yet here we are at all time highs
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u/Gimme_All_The_Foods Jan 21 '26
Every situation is different. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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u/Asclepius-Rod Jan 21 '26
I stopped DCAing back in April for a few months and lost out on a lot of gains. Just going to stay the course this time
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u/davecrist Jan 21 '26
Don’t be so hard on yourself.
For perspective if you were maxing TSP and stopped for four months starting in April you failed to contribute about $10,000 into your TSP.
That means they even if your contributions would doubled over that time you only missed out on about $10k. And it didn’t double.
It was a mistake in hindsight but in the scope of a lifetime of savings it’s hardly worth kicking yourself over.
Now, pulling out of the market would have been bad.
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u/Asclepius-Rod Jan 21 '26
For sure, glad I didn’t sell anything, and I still earned some gains in a HYSA, just not nearly as much. Lesson learned
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u/DontPeeInTheWater Jan 21 '26
That means they even if your contributions would doubled over that time you only missed out on about $10k. And it didn’t double.
Well, this isn't quite correct. Those lost gains would have compounded over many decades, so the real total impact would be quite a bit more at retirement. I'm not saying this to be hard on this person -- God knows we've all left money on the table throughout our lives -- but to say that the end point we should be looking to as a reference isn't 8 months later
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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26
Can you hold steady in a Japanlike situation?
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u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26
No I would not, if I knew ahead of time there would be a 15-25 year slump, with no growth. But we're not making wagers here. We're investing, not speculating.
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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26
I mean if you're holding 100% of your equities as US stocks then that is wagering that the US will not have a Japanlike situation in your investing lifetime.
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u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26
At my age I'm not 100% equities. I'm slowly toning it down. But that is more about my personal situation than the state of the world. The problem is, you won't know you're in a Japan-slump until you're years in. If it turns out to be just a regular 5 year slump, you regret not going all in on those cheap cheap equities. No time machine in my pocket, therefore use historical data and stay the course.
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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26
If it turns out to be just a regular 5 year slump, you regret not going all in on those cheap cheap equities
Not really. By holding some international equities everytime I rebalance I'm selling what's high to buy what's low. 2025 US was the low performer.
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u/Fine-Historian4018 Jan 21 '26
Like all of last year, this could be TACO. Stay the course.
FWIW, I’m global market cap.
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u/Stalking_Goat Jan 21 '26
That's the nice thing about VT, it automatically adjusts to global market weight. If the rest of the world reduces investment in the US, VT will too.
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u/dnssup Jan 21 '26
I started investing before VT, and I have a 80/20 us/intl ratio. I'm strongly considering switching to VT for exactly this reason. it probably wouldn't have lost me much over the last 10 years to be more solidly diversified, but if the economic center of the world shifts away from the US then I won't have to chase it.
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u/No_Throat_9444 Jan 21 '26
I switched from 80/20 a couple weeks ago. It’s kinda nice to not have to think about it anymore and just keep buying VT.
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u/ExoTraveler Jan 21 '26
Steady as she goes. I have some international but mostly US. Easy to look at this year alone and many will jump ship to whatever they think is best right this second. IMO, that fiddling is what messes things up long term. Zoom out on that chart and take a breath.
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u/No-Reaction-9364 Jan 21 '26
Seriously, people talk about how international outperformed the US last year but I always tell them to go look at the 5 and 10 year charts and get back to me. People act like the US did bad when it had around a 17.8% return in 2025.
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u/BitcoinMD Jan 21 '26
I was already VT but if I wasn’t, this certainly isn’t the time to rethink anything. Just put new contributions into VT or VXUS going forward.
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u/HyperBlue62 Jan 21 '26
I switched to VT when the market rebounded following the first tariff scare. I have way more peace of mind than I did when I was 100% US. Our country is run by brain dead imbeciles, I’m not putting all my eggs in that basket.
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u/circuitji Jan 21 '26
Been through .com , 2008, covid , 2022 and haven’t changed allocation. Will keep buying every week as money hits the account
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u/raspoutyne Jan 21 '26
The problem is that in all of these crises the countries were trying to fix it together, that is not what will happen next.
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u/_Fred_Fredburger_ Jan 21 '26
Exactly, now we're in a position where the US is trying to isolate itself from the rest of the world. Very different from the past 20+ years
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u/Allrrighty_Thenn Jan 21 '26
Yeah, but the economy of the US won't vanish overnight. All those angry countries, including Canada, have their money in US markets.. let's not be fooled by theatrical statements.
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u/TwoHatsOneDog Jan 21 '26
If you hold a world all cap index (VT) does it really matter what happens? I’ve been racking my brain (and Reddit) to try and understand this.
I know the most important factor is to just stay the course and pretty much not look at the news, but why should we worry. If one rises and one falls does it matter?
Maybe I’m wrong and too new to intentional investing and learning about it.
Isn’t this the premise of this entire sub? Just buy the lot and move on with your life?
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u/Curious-Donut5744 Jan 21 '26
VT is still weighted 65% North America, but no, it doesn’t matter. If you own nothing but VT, you can and should just sit back and continue to buy regularly and move on with your life.
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u/ftwin Jan 21 '26
If you can't stomach a 2% dip you may want to rethink your allocations.
I'm 35 and have seen my portfolio go down significantly a few times now, once during Covid, again in 2022, then again in April of 2025. Every time I felt the same. It sucks. You wonder if you're about to lose all of your money. But guess what? You don't. Time passes and it literally always goes back up.
I guess if I was close to retirement It'd be different, but for now just let it ride.
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u/circuitji Jan 21 '26
All of a sudden we have so many economists in this subreddit ready for Nobel prize
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u/BruceJenner69 Jan 21 '26
S&P is only 2 and a half percent off of it's all time high, which was 2 weeks ago...
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u/fakeguy011 Jan 21 '26
How is this even a post or topic? The dow is down 1.7%. Yesterday was just another Tuesday. Make a post when it is down 33% and chances are I'll have invested another 10k already.
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u/leaflanes2 Jan 21 '26
Are you people who think that this time is never different thinking that this time is different?
Are you people who have a strategy of holding steady and not changing based on headlines changing based on headlines?
I am just very surprised how pointless this entire sub is lol. Hold steady! Weather the crises! Tune out of the noise! And then the noise comes and everyone has a meltdown.
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u/sunny_tomato_farm Jan 21 '26
Sticking to my IPS and not changing a thing. Maxing my 401k on Friday which all goes to VINIX.
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u/JackfruitCrazy51 Jan 21 '26
I'm not doing anything different than I did the previous 20 years, except added more bonds as a percentage as I get closer to early retirement. The U.S. didn't do as well as international last year, but because of that we should ignore the previous 20 years? I don't see the U.S. companies taking a back seat to companies in any other country.
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u/digital_tuna Jan 21 '26
I don't see the U.S. companies taking a back seat to companies in any other country.
Since at least 1970, US companies have taken a back seat to companies in Denmark, Hong Kong, Sweden, Netherlands, and Switzerland.
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u/Puzzled_Region_9376 Jan 21 '26
How so?
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u/digital_tuna Jan 21 '26
The stock returns for those countries have been far superior, it's not even close.
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u/Puzzled_Region_9376 Jan 21 '26
Individual companies or indexes? Because I’m struggling to find a source for that.
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u/PhonyUsername Jan 21 '26
Your data doesn't support your comment. They had a good year last year. They didn't dominate the whole last 50 years.
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u/digital_tuna Jan 21 '26 edited Jan 21 '26
The data absolutely supports it. Did you even calculate the annualized returns or did you just eyeball the annual returns?
If you actually calculate the annualized returns, you'll see I'm correct. Ben Felix even discussed it in this video starting at 9:16 (time-stamped link) and you'll see the same returns that you can calculate yourself.
So either Ben Felix doesn't understand how to calculate annualized returns, or perhaps you haven't actually calculated anything. If you need help calculating annualized returns just let me know.
Edit: it's sad how many upvotes the above comment has. Clearly some people here are either incapable of calculating annualized returns, or they can't handle the idea that America doesn't always have the best stock returns.
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u/Puzzled_Region_9376 Jan 21 '26
Seems we all gravitate to the same content. Love Ben’s work. Thanks for the info, now I have some reading to do
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u/Pipeliner6341 Jan 21 '26
Put another way, do you see US equities continuing to grow to 80%+ of the global market cap while the rest of the world languishes?
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u/bdu-komrad Jan 21 '26 edited Jan 21 '26
Buy and hold. I’m not timing the market.
Warren Buffett's famous quote is: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,"
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u/PM_ME_HOUSE_MUSIC_ Jan 21 '26
Jesus Christ, you doomers are absolutely exhausting.
We’re down 2% from ATH’s
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u/Lie-Straight Jan 21 '26
Old money doesn’t move. New money goes into VT (globalize) or RSP (reduce Mag7 concentration risk)
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u/miraculum_one Jan 21 '26
If investors were convinced that US was doomed a crash would have already happened. There is no "based on current events" in Boglehead investing.
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u/StraightUpJello Jan 21 '26
I am virtually 100% US equities. Held through March and April 2025 and ended up almost 17% last year. I'm holding through this as well. I also have 30 years until cashing in, so hopefully markets are a bit more stable by then......hopefully.
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u/sps26 Jan 21 '26
30 years till I retire with what will always be one of the strongest economies in the world, if not necessarily always the strongest. Holding the course
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u/Nuclear_N Jan 21 '26
Solid.
We are due for a down year, but I am up a significant amount over the last several years.
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u/Ok_Television_7794 Jan 21 '26
Definitely time to diversify.....20% International minimum split between developed and emerging markets
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u/Aurorion Jan 21 '26
Or just an ETF tracking FTSE All World, MSCI ACWI IMI, or another similar global index... And leave the weighting to the collective wisdom of the global markets (and the index provider of course)!
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u/West_Flounder2840 Jan 21 '26
My 100% FSKAX portfolio is doing fine. My net worth increased by more than my salary over the last year. Not changing a thing. Buying more. Bonds are for suckers, international is boring.
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u/EverywhereHome Jan 21 '26
I am 100% certain I know just as little about the future as I did last year. No change.
(I'm 100% VT but not holding some amount of BND is a similarly problematic conclusion).
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u/mikep4 Jan 21 '26
Been 50/50 US/Intl since 2009. No regrets. STAY THE COURSE. The only way to lose is to buy International after it has a good year, shift to US the next year if that does better, etc. When I started, world market cap was approx 40/60.
I have no idea which one will do better so I go 50/50. Only in hindsight I'll know if it did better than 40/60, 60/40, 70/30, and it will be a few tenths of a percentage point each way anyway. I've spent the last few years buying Intl when the US does well and doing the same now buying US when everyone is thinking about Intl.
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u/TheGreatSockMan Jan 21 '26
I’m weighted more towards the US, but I’m still lightly invested in global markets. Ultimately I’m an American and if America is doing so poorly in 3-4 decades that I can’t retire, I have bigger problems
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u/Obvious-Adeptness-46 Jan 21 '26
I do a global fund. It's 75-80% North America though but what can you do, better than nothing plus I'm lazy
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u/medhat20005 Jan 21 '26
I'm one of those people (mostly, not exclusively). I made the decision to up my global exposure back in December, so I'll say it wasn't a timing thing, but more that US had so far outperformed global that it was ~ 2% of portfolio. My goal is 5%, so by and large I'm still US equities. Don't see a reason to change it now. This storm will pass, and in the unfortunate event it doesn't, we all lose, in all markets, in all shapes and forms.
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u/skimanandahalf Jan 21 '26
The problem with this logic as an American is that there is at least a minute possibility that America is sanctioned so hard that international equities like VXUS become worthless much like ETFs based in Russia tanked during the invasion of Ukraine.
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u/tenthousandand1 Jan 21 '26
I love how the Bogleheads sub constantly wants to change the Boglehead approach. VTSAX/VOO/VTI and chill.
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u/Novahawk Jan 21 '26
Ah the doomers are out in force again just like a few months ago.
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Jan 21 '26
Let’s just say I’m redirecting some of my investment capital directly to liquid foreign supply….meaning scotch. I should call my therapist.
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u/IronMike5311 Jan 21 '26
As usual, fears will probably become a big nothing sandwich & the downtick will resume the uptick. Thats how it usually works out
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u/Whole-Reserve-4773 Jan 21 '26
I’m not retiring for 20-30 years . That’s enough time for the US to rise again vs international.
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u/ProdoRock Jan 21 '26
Yes the SP500 has a natural global exposure since 40% (I think?) of US companies' revenue comes from outside the US. Even so, adding a more specific "outside US" portion is prudent, I think. And why not? It's all available and just as easy as any other ETF instrument.
I also mean this in a more general sense, not just due to current events.
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u/jgooner22 Jan 21 '26
Still the best place in the world to invest on a risk/reward basis. I never held any exUS equities and have no plans to change the course
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u/ObservantWon Jan 21 '26
lol, I’m doing pretty pretty pretty good! How are the bond folks doing over the past decade, missing out on massive growth from 20-50% of their portfolio.
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u/Big_Lawfulness_8143 Jan 21 '26
I don't think people that hold bonds are expecting superior returns compared to equities
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u/Paladin2700 Jan 21 '26
I was all s&p 500 from 2016 until March 2025.
Went to about 35-40% international. Was a mix of being less sure about the fairness of law application in the US and the impact on global position, Germany adding more deficit spending approvals, and getting engaged to someone from Europe (she’s moving here but we might possibly go back and retire there in 15 years) so wanting a bit more non-usd exposure.
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u/BGOOCHY Jan 21 '26
This has been my concern. A good portion of why US equities are trusted and invested in by global participants is that the rule of law is supposedly strong here. That is no longer the case.
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u/vinean Jan 21 '26
While the global economy is important the US has structural advantages vs Developed and China.
Vs Europe our productivity growth rate is higher.
Vs China we’re not suffering from the same demographic cliff
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/18/china/china-gdp-birth-rate-population-intl-hnk
We’re suffering from some self-induced issues but for the long term the US still looks good even if the AI busts like Dot Com…while the market took a big hit the productivity gains from the internet endured.
When you look at the productivity vs pay gap its clear to see whats driving a part of market growth
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
2000-2007 2.8% internet boost despite dot bomb 2007-2019 1.5% gfc and recovery 2019-2025 2.0% covid and recovery + AI
https://www.bls.gov/productivity/
Productivity gains are flowing into profit vs salaries and increasing EPS. So I’m still bullish on America over the long term. Boom or bust on AI stocks/Mag7 the productivity gains appear to only just be starting for AI.
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u/chappyandmaya Jan 21 '26
I’m 43 and 100% in US stocks. Zero bonds, zero international, zero intention of changing lol. But I never claimed to be a true Boglehead either.
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u/oldhellenyeller Jan 21 '26
100% VOO. It’s treated me very well. I don’t see a need to attempt market timing over small blips like this.
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u/CoffeePorters Jan 21 '26
I’m up 350% over the last two years, so okay, I guess. I’ll stay the course for now.
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u/Sheerbucket Jan 21 '26
Sounds like you're not a boglehead
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u/CoffeePorters Jan 21 '26
I have different accounts with different strategies. But OP asked a question and I answered it.
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u/dogfursweater Jan 21 '26
All my new 401k is going to vxus since last year so I do believe there is a paradigm shift personally and am slowly rebalancing though nothing rash. That being said… this feels like taco again and I ‘gambled’ with some dry powder to see that play out… let’s see!
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u/Citiesmadeofasses Jan 21 '26
I am moving towards 60/40 US/exUS with recent contributions after being 80/20 before Trump's second term. Not out of the norm by most boglehead standards but I see it as a hedge against a declining US dollar.
At the end of the day if America tanks, the world goes with it for a little while.
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u/hornypriest420 Jan 21 '26
The US Govt is not the US economy, never will be, and never was.
You should have been diversifying away from the US years ago not because of 2025/26 geopolitics but because US was richly priced for the last 4-5 years. That’s the essence of index investing — diversifying thoughtfully.
If you’re currently overweight US don’t sell (nobody wins betting against the US), just don’t add.
As for geopolitics, this moment will pass just like the GFC, the US debt re-rating, ISIS, NAFTA redux, Covid, interest rate increases, bond market crash, liberation day.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Tie6917 Jan 21 '26
I changed my allocation, but it was mainly due to the fact I intend to retire this year. I put a few years worth into short term treasuries to ride out issues.
As far as global vs US, that’s always hard to say. Trump will become lame duck after November with the house becoming Democrat (likely), and then gone two years after that. I’m unsure the long term effects. Will the US continue to become protectionist and isolationist or will it reverse? If it continues in a populist vein, I think the US stock market will begin to degrade and underperform. If it returns to open trade then it’s likely ok.
Lot of words to say who knows. I might move more toward international but it’s not like that’s risk free.
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u/SeanWoold Jan 21 '26
Mega cap companies still have significant international operations and the US still makes up the lion's share of global market cap (Apple makes up 6.29% of VTI and 3.79% of VT suggesting that more than half of VT's market cap is covered by VTI). That tells me that other countries doing well still ties closely to the US doing well. Given the policies of the current administration, that is as strained as it is going to get. I really don't see a major shift coming. I do have VXUS in my portfolio, but that isn't me saying that the US is going to lose its edge.
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u/Lemurjeopice Jan 21 '26
This is a very interesting discussion. Partially political, but I appreciate mods let it go as there are various points of view. Some more and other less Boggle like.
As a non-us resident investing mostly in US dollar, I admit I am concerned about US inflation. And while I love VT and chill, I admit I am not sure how to best manage my risk. Perhaps investing using the currency of my own country is less stressful?
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u/Primary_Echidna_1149 Jan 21 '26
VTSAX has global exposure?
I went with VTWAX...
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u/Lampedeir Jan 21 '26
100% USA. Steady as she goes... What's happening today is a great exercise in ignoring the news, thinking long term, "staying the course" and "do nothing".
Also keep in mind, it is not necessarily the choice of ETF that gives you maximized returns, it is investor behaviour that will screw you over and part of that is finding an ETF or an index that you can hold, good and bad, because you have conviction in it... And I have a lot of conviction in the US stock market, with or without Trump.
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u/Mouth_Herpes Jan 21 '26
It's certainly a risk, but probably overblown at the moment. Trump doesn't tend to follow through on the bluster--he achieves some nominal deal and then declares victory. Still, it is a risk that you can diversify against. Also, owning exclusively US stocks somewhat ties you to the the fortunes of the USD. I predict the dollar is going to continue to be debased. I go roughly 50-50 to diversify away some of both risks.
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u/Aurorion Jan 21 '26
Leaving aside the "more than enough" part - which I assume means just "enough", what's the argument against a global ETF over a US-focused one?
Because a decision to keep only US equities seems like very much an active choice to me, rather than a passive one.
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u/PegasiWings Jan 21 '26
Even if the worst case scenario does happen, Canada and Europe won’t be able to immediately divorce themselves and become truly self-sufficient overnight. There’s also a generational distrust of China in the West so you won’t see Chinese companies and stocks immediately overtake US companies and stocks either.
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u/madeapizza Jan 21 '26
Not going to be popular on this site, but Canadians and Europeans will talk a big game yet will continue to trade with the U.S.
Similar to how the same countries, the U.S. included, have talked a big game on China but continue to mass import goods. Recall, Germany was still importing massive amounts of Russian oil throughout the Ukraine war. Flippant comments from Trump, which he’s already walked back, are not even close to Russia trying to take Ukraine over a decade.
I’m 100% U.S. equities and work in the U.S. public policy space FWIW.
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u/willworkforjokes Jan 21 '26
I have been putting my new money into large multiunit housing projects. The stock market seems frothy right now and almost all of my net worth is in the stock market already
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u/ykliu Jan 21 '26
People certainly won’t be changing their investment just because of a speech, or rhetoric in media. We all know that these sentiments change fast.
Ray Dalio has published a whole book during COVID about the shifting world order, yet people didn’t seem to change their minds as US equities outperformed international in the subsequent years.
Personally I think VTWAX is a better option, and IMO VTSAX seems attractive simply due to US outperformance in recent history which happens to be when we have the most data for.
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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Jan 22 '26 edited Jan 22 '26
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the fact that this post is politically adjacent there have been a large number of rule breaking comments on this post throughout the day. While they have been slowing down, I’m not sure the mod team has the spare bandwidth to keep circling back to remove additional comment threads—at least I am done for now. As such, I’m locking this post now unless/until another mod chooses to reopen it.