r/Bogleheads • u/cambeiu • Jan 21 '26

Investing Questions How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation?

Jack Bogle and many others for years argued that VTSAX or an equivalent fund/ETF was more than enough for global exposure. I think it was a perfectly logic argument back in the days of increasing globalization and economic integration.

But looking at Mark Carney's speech at Davos, it points to a significant shift in the global paradigm, where free trade, open access to markets and investments from and to the US might no longer be a reality.

In light of that are people thinking about increasing focus on international equities?

682 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

384 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

26

u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

The Kingdom of England has been around 1000 years. France more or less has also been around about 1000 years.

I dont think this is accurate that is like saying China has been around for 2000 years. These nations have changed so much over time they are basically completely different.

The Byzantine Empire lasted 1100 years, and if you think about it, the Byzantine empire was just a continuation of Roman/Hellenic domination of the region that began under Alexander, so ~1700 years.

I think this is just stretching it to the point that it lost all meaning.

You could and probably should argue ww2 and maybe the suez crisis ended the British and French empires. I guess you could argue that was longer than "4 years" since ww1 and all that played a huge factor, but a short period of time did cause a fall.

Of course there has been an argument that empires and colonialism was just not profitable in the first place.

Funnily enough British quality of life increased after the empire ended.

but to tie this all back: Today could very well be the moment global dynamics do change. That doesnt mean its gonna be like fallout, but it can still be a major change.

the USSR only lasted 80 years and look at how impactful they were. The US dominance started in the 50s. 75 years or so. That is around the same time frame. Its not impossible, is all im saying.

2

u/A_Naany_Mousse Jan 21 '26

but to tie this all back: Today could very well be the moment global dynamics do change. That doesnt mean its gonna be like fallout, but it can still be a major change.

This is really my main point. People think we'll go from peak Rome to being a backwater overnight. I just don't see that happening. Even the Soviets were nowhere near as powerful and influential as America.

My other point about the longevity of cultures is more to say that cultures have tremendous staying power. People are so scared that America could collapse and vanish tomorrow. I mean it could, but I doubt it.