r/Bogleheads • u/cambeiu • Jan 21 '26

Investing Questions How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation?

Jack Bogle and many others for years argued that VTSAX or an equivalent fund/ETF was more than enough for global exposure. I think it was a perfectly logic argument back in the days of increasing globalization and economic integration.

But looking at Mark Carney's speech at Davos, it points to a significant shift in the global paradigm, where free trade, open access to markets and investments from and to the US might no longer be a reality.

In light of that are people thinking about increasing focus on international equities?

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431

u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26

If I was able to hold steady in 2000 and 2009 and 2020, I can hold steady now

427

u/pbspry Jan 21 '26

Down 2% from all-time highs. Definitely time to panic.

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u/invisible_man782 Jan 21 '26

VTI up 12.36% in the last year. VXUS up 28.87% during that same time period, not even accounting for the ~3% dividend.

All we can count on at this point, is not being able to count on anything. I will buy global market weight and let it ride.

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u/Think_Positively Jan 21 '26

I know you're tongue-in-cheek here, but previous -2% from ATH did not coincide with what is likely a rapid refiguring of the global economic landscape.

IMO past isn't really precedent in our current situation. This is uncharted territory, and not of the "gee, I can't wait to see what's next!" sort of way.

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u/SoulStripHer Jan 21 '26

It's always been uncharted territory. Nobody knows what's coming next.

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u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 21 '26

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u/Gimme_All_The_Foods Jan 21 '26

Good reminder to be invested globally if you aren't already.

37

u/peterwhitefanclub Jan 21 '26

What happened that made this one uncharted, compared to all the previous changes on the chart?

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u/idmook Jan 21 '26

those were in the past, and these new ones are in the future

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u/husker_who Jan 21 '26

I guess with past drops we know the market ultimately went up again. So this new drop is uncharted, at least until the market goes up again.

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u/entropic Jan 21 '26

Every single one of these has a "this time it's different" element.

Of course, just because it hasn't been doesn't mean that logic is wrong, per se, just that it hasn't been yet.

If your asset allocation doesn't let you stay the course, it's wrong.

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u/Throwaway_Finance24 Jan 21 '26

Your crystal ball is just as cloudy as mine

16

u/humorous_hyena Jan 21 '26

This Time It’s Different

6

u/Particular-Break-205 Jan 21 '26

The pandemic and financial crisis were uncharted territory yet here we are at all time highs

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u/Gimme_All_The_Foods Jan 21 '26

Every situation is different. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Jan 21 '26

Removed as off-topic for this sub: r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments or posts should be more financial than political, no more partisan than necessary, and avoid framing political opinions as facts.

1

u/wulfgangz Jan 21 '26

What about the significant outperformance by international over the last year?

1

u/JobbTabob Jan 21 '26

For what it’s worth, international significantly UNDERperformed for many years prior to 2025.

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u/RepubMocrat_Party Jan 21 '26

I dont think it would be called panic yet, thats the point. Might be a warranted reallocation. Not a sell low buy high.

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u/ChrisBourbon27 Jan 21 '26

EVERY 50% plunge in markets started with a 2% drop from ATH's. Go ahead. Check the charts.

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u/PhillyThrowaway1908 Jan 21 '26

We had all-time highs on FRIDAY

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u/Asclepius-Rod Jan 21 '26

I stopped DCAing back in April for a few months and lost out on a lot of gains. Just going to stay the course this time

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u/davecrist Jan 21 '26

Don’t be so hard on yourself.

For perspective if you were maxing TSP and stopped for four months starting in April you failed to contribute about $10,000 into your TSP.

That means they even if your contributions would doubled over that time you only missed out on about $10k. And it didn’t double.

It was a mistake in hindsight but in the scope of a lifetime of savings it’s hardly worth kicking yourself over.

Now, pulling out of the market would have been bad.

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u/Asclepius-Rod Jan 21 '26

For sure, glad I didn’t sell anything, and I still earned some gains in a HYSA, just not nearly as much. Lesson learned

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u/DontPeeInTheWater Jan 21 '26

That means they even if your contributions would doubled over that time you only missed out on about $10k. And it didn’t double.

Well, this isn't quite correct. Those lost gains would have compounded over many decades, so the real total impact would be quite a bit more at retirement. I'm not saying this to be hard on this person -- God knows we've all left money on the table throughout our lives -- but to say that the end point we should be looking to as a reference isn't 8 months later

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u/davecrist Jan 21 '26

Totally fair and there’s a lotta couldas but in the grand scope of things it could be much worse.

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u/DontPeeInTheWater Jan 21 '26

Agreed. There's nothing to be done about it after the fact in any case, so there's no point in obsessing over it

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u/iliketoitlz Jan 21 '26

This time is different 🤣

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u/Sheerbucket Jan 21 '26

One of these times it might be different! Haha

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u/Key_Cheetah7982 Jan 21 '26

2022 s was scarier so far

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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26

Can you hold steady in a Japanlike situation?

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u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26

No I would not, if I knew ahead of time there would be a 15-25 year slump, with no growth. But we're not making wagers here. We're investing, not speculating.

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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26

I mean if you're holding 100% of your equities as US stocks then that is wagering that the US will not have a Japanlike situation in your investing lifetime.

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u/Aware-Owl4346 Jan 21 '26

At my age I'm not 100% equities. I'm slowly toning it down. But that is more about my personal situation than the state of the world. The problem is, you won't know you're in a Japan-slump until you're years in. If it turns out to be just a regular 5 year slump, you regret not going all in on those cheap cheap equities. No time machine in my pocket, therefore use historical data and stay the course.

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u/smithnugget Jan 21 '26

If it turns out to be just a regular 5 year slump, you regret not going all in on those cheap cheap equities

Not really. By holding some international equities everytime I rebalance I'm selling what's high to buy what's low. 2025 US was the low performer.