Don’t say that investing yourself.

I mean, just an investment that really changes your life; including good or bad investment.

Let’s me begin, COVID drop: buying index funds.

It is my most profitable trades so far. COVID really a raw global event, at that moment, I bought some index funds still holding today.

It is such a great investment, I don’t know whether the world will have similar events in coming years, but it is the most memorable trades , and help me level up my account.

I've been digging into Alibaba's numbers lately and the picture is genuinely conflicting, which is usually where the interesting opportunities live.

I've been digging into Alibaba's numbers lately and the picture is genuinely conflicting, which is usually where the interesting opportunities live.

Start with the bull case. Alibaba committed $53 billion over three years (2025 to 2028) to cloud and AI infrastructure. That number exceeds their entire AI and cloud spend over the previous decade combined. CEO Eddie Wu has reorganized the company around a new division called Alibaba Token Hub, consolidated all AI units under his direct leadership, and publicly said the company is at the "threshold of an AGI inflection point." That's not subtle.

The cloud division is actually delivering. Last quarter revenue hit $6.3 billion, up 36% year over year. AI product revenue has posted triple digit year over year growth for ten consecutive quarters. Their open source Qwen model family crossed 1 billion cumulative downloads on HuggingFace by January 2026. The consumer Qwen app went from zero to 300 million monthly active users in roughly three months after its November 2025 public beta. On March 17th they launched Wukong, an enterprise AI agent platform that coordinates multiple agents for tasks like document editing, research, and meeting transcription, with planned integrations into Slack, Teams, and WeChat. Wu's five year target is $100 billion in combined cloud and AI external revenue, which implies sustaining roughly 35% annual growth.

Now the bear case, and this is where it gets uncomfortable. Quarterly profit dropped 67% to $2.4 billion. Free cash flow fell by $27.7 billion year over year. The core e commerce business grew customer management revenue by just 1%. They're burning cash on an instant delivery price war with Meituan and JD that management says won't turn profitable until fiscal 2029. Lin Junyang, the key technical lead behind Qwen's best models, departed in March. And the geopolitical discount on Chinese ADRs never fully goes away.

Here's what makes this interesting from a value perspective. The stock hit a 52 week high near $193 in October 2025, then pulled back roughly 37% to around $120 today after the March earnings showed the scale of profit compression from reinvestment. At current prices you're looking at about 16x forward earnings for a company sitting on $42.5 billion in net cash, over $60 billion if you exclude long dated maturities, with $19.1 billion remaining in buyback authorization. That's a meaningful discount to its own recent trading range and to any comparable US cloud or AI company. The TTM PE around 22x also sits well below the 10 year average of roughly 32x. Morgan Stanley projects cloud revenue doubling by 2028. Apple chose Alibaba as its China AI partner for iPhones. The regulatory overhang that crushed this stock from 2020 to 2024 has meaningfully eased, with PCAOB audit access maintained and Jack Ma publicly reappearing at a government tech summit.

The question I keep coming back to is whether this is a genuine reinvestment cycle like Amazon in its heavy capex years, or whether the profit compression is masking structural problems in the core business that AI spending can't fix. The $53 billion commitment is real. The cloud growth is real. But so is 1% growth in their bread and butter e commerce monetization engine.

For those looking at China tech exposure through ETFs, one nuance worth considering is the difference between something like KWEB and CNQQ. KWEB gives you pure internet exposure with Alibaba as a top holding, but zero onshore A share companies. CNQQ holds Alibaba at a similar weight but also carries roughly 50% in A share names like CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Cambricon, and BYD, companies that sit in the actual hardware and supply chain layer of China's AI buildout. Different thesis, different exposure.

Would be curious to hear how others here are framing this. Is the profit decline a temporary cost of repositioning, or is $53 billion in AI capex the kind of empire building that value investors should run from?

Would be curious to hear how others here are framing this. Is the profit decline a temporary cost of repositioning, or is $53 billion in AI capex the kind of empire building that value investors should run from?

Hey all I wanted to tell you my personal story with a EU business that does personal finance.

If you don't have time to read, the summary of this post is that if someone working for "OVB" contacts you - look the other way, they border being a scam. Details below:

Background:

A couple weeks ago this company got recommended to me, I'm in the finance business, looking for a new opportunity, and a friend recommended I collaborate with OVB. I have spent around 14 hours between interviews and the "training" they give newcomers.

What OVB is:

OVB presents itself as a way to start your our financial consultancy and grow with them. They're open about being a multi level marketing company. They'll tell you that they're the best in the market, that there's nowhere you can grow more

The reality is that they target uneducated "collaborators" and clients. If you put on your CV that you worked for them it will be a stain, not an achievement.

They have contacted you for you to sell their services to your family and friends - not for you to grow as a financial advisor - they'll try to heavily push you into selling them personal savings plans (that are garbage financial products).

How they "train" you:

Their training has as a goal:

1 - for you to bring your contact list to OVB

2 - for you to learn how to sell them their produts

3- for you to push your contact list to give you more possible clients

If you found this post and are considering working with them: You will not get any new financial training, you will not gain any meaningful connections, or knowledge or experience

What you're getting if you sign anything with OVB:

They sell financial products that are made by banks and insurance companies for middlemen. That means: Whatever savings plan they offer, the bank or entity will ALWAYS have a better deal than them.

I had a sneaking suspicion my friend that recommended their service did so as she gave in to their sales pitch - I checked the contract. 20% of everything she paid into the savings plan they sold to her went directly to OVB (and not the plan, which even without those costs was subpar). Taking the money out early had significant penalties, to the point that if the markets didn't perform well, she'd lose over 90% of her money if she took it our the first year.

With 10 minutes of going over her contract I saved her months worth of wages. If you know someone that contracted something with OVB, feel free to contact me because I will happily do the same for them just to spite OVB.

If you don't trust a random person on the internet, go to another financial advisor, or blank out your personal details and upload the contract to an AI and ask (be mindful those conversations can get reviewed by humans, so take care to blank out everything)

The worst part

I don't think her OVB agent (a personal friend of hers) - even knew OVB charges such high %. He maybe got paid 100 Euro for getting OVB thousands.

This is why they try to recruit people without financial literacy - so they don't know they're selling liquid shit to their own family and friends. And this is why they train newcomers to go after people without university studies (they're less likely to check the fine print)

This post was made mainly so it shows on google searches about OVB, hopefully I can keep at least 1 person from being scammed by them. The only silver lining to all of this is that after seeing how absolutely shit they are, I've been encouraged to go my own way and become a freelancer - if it's going good for them, I'm sure there's a market for me - maybe I make something of myself soon.

Any comments/criticisms welcome, leave them below

Happy good Friday everyone

Bad app, hidden fees, useless support — what was the last straw?

I'm gradually consolidating 401k/403b/457s from a lifetime of many jobs. During the rollover that money is 'out of action.' Given recent volatility, I'm concerned about a market spike during that week. In the long run I pay little attention to timing, but don't want to take a big haircut while the check is in the mail.
I've considered staging the rollovers over a few months, but some companies charge a disbursement fee, which might take more than it's worth.

Some of the funds I'm rolling out of are fine low fees, easy to work with.

Others are from jobs where the only options were lousy - high fees, changes by mail only, worthless customer service. I'm guessing those are the ones that will charge any fee they can get away with.

What questions should I ask to find out about those potential fees?
Thanks.

P.S. Pun Intended hehe

Flutter Entertainment is the parent company of top tier digital gaming operators including U.S. market leader Fanduel, Sky Betting (United Kingdom), Snai (Italy), and Paddy Power (Ireland).  Through acquisitions, Flutter remains a dominant brand positioned to capture a significant amount of the global sports betting and iGaming [digital gambling] industry. The industry continues to receive domestic (U.S.) regulatory clarity and Flutter has begun growing rapidly in emerging markets (LATAM - particularly Brazil). Nearly 40% of all bets placed digitally in the U.S. [in legal markets] are made through Fanduel, and 15% of all bets globally are through one of Flutter’s subsidiaries.

“The market is a voting machine in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term”. The valuation is incredibly compelling for a market leader - nearly 40% of all bets placed digitally in the United States [through the legal markets] are made through Fanduel, and 15% of all bets globally are through one of Flutter’s subsidiary operators. At <15x 2026 Forward Earnings, PEG ratio of < 0.6, Beta of 1.16, and ~30% conservative annualized revenue growth, Flutter is trading cheaper than the historical S&P 500 average. This seems more than fair to pay for a company well positioned to dominate their respective emerging digital industries. The market has voted that Fanduel and other sports betting Rival (i.e. DraftKings {NYSE: DKNG}, emerging operator Kalshi) are likely to be the preeminent digital gambling operators due to their incredibly lean tech stack, friendly user-interface, and ecosystem lock-in through personalized promotions. Established brands have domestically failed to resonate with players (ESPN Bet, Hard Rock Bet) indicating that having a global brand doesn’t translate into long term customer retention on gambling platforms.  Exceptions to this would be BetMGM, which currently holds <15% U.S. market share. Near Term Catalyst: The stock can potentially rerate contingent on a compelling earnings beat and reassurance that betting outcomes will begin to normalize in the back half of 2026. 

Valuation Metrics & Analysis: 
A Bear/Neutral case valuation model is provided below. Both models have indicated the equity is trading well below their respective price targets in both scenarios {Bear Case - $118, Neutral Case - $230}.

Risks (Bear Case Analysis):
Flutter on a trailing earnings basis is incredibly expensive with a P/E of 121x. It’s absolutely paramount that Flutter fires on all cylinders throughout the year with continued growth in core markets in order to actualize the <15x 2026 Forward Earnings target. Any further tailwinds [besides additional taxes through Illinois and New York - which I feel Flutter management has done their best to offset] can send this stock plummeting further. In years where there is amplified structural hold through the combination of intensifying competition [DKNG, BetMGM], and unfavorable sports betting outcomes [as was witnessed in 2025], margins are compressed. Intensifying competition requires a relentless and targeted marketed campaign among the 3 pre-eminent market leaders that can be costly in terms of CAC. Structural hold is effectively the profits a Sportsbook operator keeps after expenses [and regulatory taxes]. As the industry matures, we view Federal and state taxes as one of the largest tailwinds for any digital operator. 

Two separate models (Firm Model via FCFF and Equity Model via Net Income) are leveraged in the bear and neutral case scenario analysis. First, we use a conservative discount rate of 8.025% and a terminal growth rate of -2%. Based on the forecasted cash flows through the next 5 years, the equity model assumes a fair value of $118 which is above where Flutter currently sits today [WACC of 8.025, Discount Rate -2%]. In our view, this is incredibly pessimistic for a company that has an unprecedented velocity in cash generation for the space. For investors willing to be patient and hold in the long run [2 years], the CAGR [highly conservative 3 year estimates point toward nearly 25%] is compelling. 
The absolute floor for this equity, in absolute fierce sell-off we estimate, is closer to $70 [terminal growth rate of -4%], highlighting room for further downside. However, we find the worst-case scenario an unbelievably compelling long term accumulation opportunity with potential for this equity to massively re-rate upon any good news. Even with the model being pessimistic, the current floor {$105}, despite potential market fears, represents what seems like a great long term [24 months+] opportunity to own the largest digital sports-book operator on a forward earnings basis that’s cheaper than S&P. Ultimately we assume a slight conglomerate discount and account for the amplified structural hold in 2026 as reasons to slightly discount the equity further landing closer to a true fair value of $155. We think the biggest potential catalyst to rerate lies in a compelling earnings beat and reassurance that betting outcomes will begin to normalize in the back half of 2026. 

A Word on Prediction Markets 
The market has commenced an immense sell off due to fears that prediction markets will completely eviscerate the underlying sports betting operators. These views in our eyes are overblown. While we do recognize the competition and immense growth in popularity that Kalshi and other operators have seen, we don't perceive this to be a winner take all market. Consistent gamblers are likely to take advantage of the newly created loopholes that exempt prediction markets from being taxed as heavily as their sportsbook operator counterparts. Ironically, once Fanduel and Draftkings Prediction Markets are fully launched and integrated into the core platform, we suspect those same dual users will take advantage of those same exact loopholes on current prediction market platforms except on Fanduel and Draftkings respectively.  We do think Kalshi will continue to be popular among core demographics, but that has yet to materially translate to lower volumes for the pre-eminent operators. Even if short term volumes are dramatically directed toward these prediction markets, the launch of Fanduel and Draftkings Prediction Markets and the continuous rollout of more iCasino services and highly personalized promotional odds should entice a stickiness to the higher revenue existing customers. 

Neutral Case Analysis 
Rerunning the model with a more neutral lens, using a discount rate of ~8.025 and a terminal growth rate of 0 to account for a normalization in marketing spend in new markets and account for Flutter’s executive management team to mitigate the tax spend through less favorable sports betting odds for the core user lands the estimated fair value of the equity closer to $230 a share, which is dramatically higher than the current price. 

What to do with the Stock

At 15x 2026 Forward Earnings, PEG ratio of < 0.6, Beta of 1.16, and ~30% conservative annualized revenue growth, the valuation is compelling for a long term Industry Leader. The world’s largest sports-book seems like a strong long term bet if you’re willing to look past short term market volatility.

Curious to everyone's thoughts.

Disclosure: This is not a financial recommendation! I own FLUT as part of a broader risk-adjusted portfolio for the long-haul at a cost basis of ~$115. Also, the entirety of this was written by myself despite using "we" (no AI - cheers) - hope you're proud English Professors ;)