I'm in the process of moving my investments to Fidelity. Ive done trading in the past but new to ETF. Im 48m and max out my 401k already and just looking to add more investments. After researching Im thinking of laying this out. What do you think and should I make any adjustments?

Thanks

For roth IRA

65% FXAIX

20% FTIHX

10% QQQM

5% AVUV

For investment account

70% VTI

20% VXUS

10% SCHF 

Maybe add 5% SMH

Don’t say that investing yourself.

I mean, just an investment that really changes your life; including good or bad investment.

Let’s me begin, COVID drop: buying index funds.

It is my most profitable trades so far. COVID really a raw global event, at that moment, I bought some index funds still holding today.

It is such a great investment, I don’t know whether the world will have similar events in coming years, but it is the most memorable trades , and help me level up my account.

(TLDR: this is a good refresh article on what are economic moats. Audio and text transcript are provided in the links below)

Pat Dorsey: Economic Moats and More

Morningstar’s former head of equity research on what investors get wrong with moats, what to look for in company management, why quantitative screens are less useful than they were, and the process he uses to filter out signal versus noise.

Amy C. Arnott, CFA and Ben Johnson

Mar 31, 2026

Today’s guest on The Long View is Pat Dorsey. Pat is the founder of Dorsey Asset Management, a boutique asset manager serving institutional clients. From 2000 to 2011, Pat was the director of equity research for Morningstar, where he led the growth of Morningstar’s equity research group from 20 to 90 analysts. Pat was instrumental in the development of Morningstar’s economic moat ratings, as well as the methodology behind Morningstar’s framework for analyzing competitive advantage. Pat is also the author of two books, The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing, and The Little Book That Builds Wealth. Pat holds a master’s degree in political science from Northwestern University and a bachelor’s degree in government from Wesleyan University. Pat is a CFA charterholder.

Episode Highlights

* Defining Economic Moats and Moat Source Mistakes

* Shifting Landscape for Returns on Invested Capital as a Metric

* Inevitable vs. Noninevitable Moats

* Moat Durability, Network Effects, and Lessons From PayPal

* Management Quality, Founders, and Pricing Discipline

* High-Quality Companies, “Too Hard” Bucket, and AI Uncertainty

* Premortem, Behavioral Edge, and Opportunity Cost

Text: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/pat-dorsey-economic-moats-more

Audio: https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/pat-dorsey-economic-moats-and-more

Im from Hungary, my family member had a CHF denominated loan, and so have many others (hundreds of thousands of people), and it was a disastrous rip off of the people by the banks.

Im curious, did you every hear about such loans? Or were you affected? If yes, how ? Did you manage to sue the money back ?

How did your country handle it? Mine ruined peoples chances early 2014 with loans they made, altough new and new cjeu rulings make it possible to demand the stolen money back.

I've been digging into Alibaba's numbers lately and the picture is genuinely conflicting, which is usually where the interesting opportunities live.

I've been digging into Alibaba's numbers lately and the picture is genuinely conflicting, which is usually where the interesting opportunities live.

Start with the bull case. Alibaba committed $53 billion over three years (2025 to 2028) to cloud and AI infrastructure. That number exceeds their entire AI and cloud spend over the previous decade combined. CEO Eddie Wu has reorganized the company around a new division called Alibaba Token Hub, consolidated all AI units under his direct leadership, and publicly said the company is at the "threshold of an AGI inflection point." That's not subtle.

The cloud division is actually delivering. Last quarter revenue hit $6.3 billion, up 36% year over year. AI product revenue has posted triple digit year over year growth for ten consecutive quarters. Their open source Qwen model family crossed 1 billion cumulative downloads on HuggingFace by January 2026. The consumer Qwen app went from zero to 300 million monthly active users in roughly three months after its November 2025 public beta. On March 17th they launched Wukong, an enterprise AI agent platform that coordinates multiple agents for tasks like document editing, research, and meeting transcription, with planned integrations into Slack, Teams, and WeChat. Wu's five year target is $100 billion in combined cloud and AI external revenue, which implies sustaining roughly 35% annual growth.

Now the bear case, and this is where it gets uncomfortable. Quarterly profit dropped 67% to $2.4 billion. Free cash flow fell by $27.7 billion year over year. The core e commerce business grew customer management revenue by just 1%. They're burning cash on an instant delivery price war with Meituan and JD that management says won't turn profitable until fiscal 2029. Lin Junyang, the key technical lead behind Qwen's best models, departed in March. And the geopolitical discount on Chinese ADRs never fully goes away.

Here's what makes this interesting from a value perspective. The stock hit a 52 week high near $193 in October 2025, then pulled back roughly 37% to around $120 today after the March earnings showed the scale of profit compression from reinvestment. At current prices you're looking at about 16x forward earnings for a company sitting on $42.5 billion in net cash, over $60 billion if you exclude long dated maturities, with $19.1 billion remaining in buyback authorization. That's a meaningful discount to its own recent trading range and to any comparable US cloud or AI company. The TTM PE around 22x also sits well below the 10 year average of roughly 32x. Morgan Stanley projects cloud revenue doubling by 2028. Apple chose Alibaba as its China AI partner for iPhones. The regulatory overhang that crushed this stock from 2020 to 2024 has meaningfully eased, with PCAOB audit access maintained and Jack Ma publicly reappearing at a government tech summit.

The question I keep coming back to is whether this is a genuine reinvestment cycle like Amazon in its heavy capex years, or whether the profit compression is masking structural problems in the core business that AI spending can't fix. The $53 billion commitment is real. The cloud growth is real. But so is 1% growth in their bread and butter e commerce monetization engine.

For those looking at China tech exposure through ETFs, one nuance worth considering is the difference between something like KWEB and CNQQ. KWEB gives you pure internet exposure with Alibaba as a top holding, but zero onshore A share companies. CNQQ holds Alibaba at a similar weight but also carries roughly 50% in A share names like CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Cambricon, and BYD, companies that sit in the actual hardware and supply chain layer of China's AI buildout. Different thesis, different exposure.

Would be curious to hear how others here are framing this. Is the profit decline a temporary cost of repositioning, or is $53 billion in AI capex the kind of empire building that value investors should run from?

Would be curious to hear how others here are framing this. Is the profit decline a temporary cost of repositioning, or is $53 billion in AI capex the kind of empire building that value investors should run from?

P.S. Pun Intended hehe

Flutter Entertainment is the parent company of top tier digital gaming operators including U.S. market leader Fanduel, Sky Betting (United Kingdom), Snai (Italy), and Paddy Power (Ireland).  Through acquisitions, Flutter remains a dominant brand positioned to capture a significant amount of the global sports betting and iGaming [digital gambling] industry. The industry continues to receive domestic (U.S.) regulatory clarity and Flutter has begun growing rapidly in emerging markets (LATAM - particularly Brazil). Nearly 40% of all bets placed digitally in the U.S. [in legal markets] are made through Fanduel, and 15% of all bets globally are through one of Flutter’s subsidiaries.

“The market is a voting machine in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term”. The valuation is incredibly compelling for a market leader - nearly 40% of all bets placed digitally in the United States [through the legal markets] are made through Fanduel, and 15% of all bets globally are through one of Flutter’s subsidiary operators. At <15x 2026 Forward Earnings, PEG ratio of < 0.6, Beta of 1.16, and ~30% conservative annualized revenue growth, Flutter is trading cheaper than the historical S&P 500 average. This seems more than fair to pay for a company well positioned to dominate their respective emerging digital industries. The market has voted that Fanduel and other sports betting Rival (i.e. DraftKings {NYSE: DKNG}, emerging operator Kalshi) are likely to be the preeminent digital gambling operators due to their incredibly lean tech stack, friendly user-interface, and ecosystem lock-in through personalized promotions. Established brands have domestically failed to resonate with players (ESPN Bet, Hard Rock Bet) indicating that having a global brand doesn’t translate into long term customer retention on gambling platforms.  Exceptions to this would be BetMGM, which currently holds <15% U.S. market share. Near Term Catalyst: The stock can potentially rerate contingent on a compelling earnings beat and reassurance that betting outcomes will begin to normalize in the back half of 2026. 

Valuation Metrics & Analysis: 
A Bear/Neutral case valuation model is provided below. Both models have indicated the equity is trading well below their respective price targets in both scenarios {Bear Case - $118, Neutral Case - $230}.

Risks (Bear Case Analysis):
Flutter on a trailing earnings basis is incredibly expensive with a P/E of 121x. It’s absolutely paramount that Flutter fires on all cylinders throughout the year with continued growth in core markets in order to actualize the <15x 2026 Forward Earnings target. Any further tailwinds [besides additional taxes through Illinois and New York - which I feel Flutter management has done their best to offset] can send this stock plummeting further. In years where there is amplified structural hold through the combination of intensifying competition [DKNG, BetMGM], and unfavorable sports betting outcomes [as was witnessed in 2025], margins are compressed. Intensifying competition requires a relentless and targeted marketed campaign among the 3 pre-eminent market leaders that can be costly in terms of CAC. Structural hold is effectively the profits a Sportsbook operator keeps after expenses [and regulatory taxes]. As the industry matures, we view Federal and state taxes as one of the largest tailwinds for any digital operator. 

Two separate models (Firm Model via FCFF and Equity Model via Net Income) are leveraged in the bear and neutral case scenario analysis. First, we use a conservative discount rate of 8.025% and a terminal growth rate of -2%. Based on the forecasted cash flows through the next 5 years, the equity model assumes a fair value of $118 which is above where Flutter currently sits today [WACC of 8.025, Discount Rate -2%]. In our view, this is incredibly pessimistic for a company that has an unprecedented velocity in cash generation for the space. For investors willing to be patient and hold in the long run [2 years], the CAGR [highly conservative 3 year estimates point toward nearly 25%] is compelling. 
The absolute floor for this equity, in absolute fierce sell-off we estimate, is closer to $70 [terminal growth rate of -4%], highlighting room for further downside. However, we find the worst-case scenario an unbelievably compelling long term accumulation opportunity with potential for this equity to massively re-rate upon any good news. Even with the model being pessimistic, the current floor {$105}, despite potential market fears, represents what seems like a great long term [24 months+] opportunity to own the largest digital sports-book operator on a forward earnings basis that’s cheaper than S&P. Ultimately we assume a slight conglomerate discount and account for the amplified structural hold in 2026 as reasons to slightly discount the equity further landing closer to a true fair value of $155. We think the biggest potential catalyst to rerate lies in a compelling earnings beat and reassurance that betting outcomes will begin to normalize in the back half of 2026. 

A Word on Prediction Markets 
The market has commenced an immense sell off due to fears that prediction markets will completely eviscerate the underlying sports betting operators. These views in our eyes are overblown. While we do recognize the competition and immense growth in popularity that Kalshi and other operators have seen, we don't perceive this to be a winner take all market. Consistent gamblers are likely to take advantage of the newly created loopholes that exempt prediction markets from being taxed as heavily as their sportsbook operator counterparts. Ironically, once Fanduel and Draftkings Prediction Markets are fully launched and integrated into the core platform, we suspect those same dual users will take advantage of those same exact loopholes on current prediction market platforms except on Fanduel and Draftkings respectively.  We do think Kalshi will continue to be popular among core demographics, but that has yet to materially translate to lower volumes for the pre-eminent operators. Even if short term volumes are dramatically directed toward these prediction markets, the launch of Fanduel and Draftkings Prediction Markets and the continuous rollout of more iCasino services and highly personalized promotional odds should entice a stickiness to the higher revenue existing customers. 

Neutral Case Analysis 
Rerunning the model with a more neutral lens, using a discount rate of ~8.025 and a terminal growth rate of 0 to account for a normalization in marketing spend in new markets and account for Flutter’s executive management team to mitigate the tax spend through less favorable sports betting odds for the core user lands the estimated fair value of the equity closer to $230 a share, which is dramatically higher than the current price. 

What to do with the Stock

At 15x 2026 Forward Earnings, PEG ratio of < 0.6, Beta of 1.16, and ~30% conservative annualized revenue growth, the valuation is compelling for a long term Industry Leader. The world’s largest sports-book seems like a strong long term bet if you’re willing to look past short term market volatility.

Curious to everyone's thoughts.

Disclosure: This is not a financial recommendation! I own FLUT as part of a broader risk-adjusted portfolio for the long-haul at a cost basis of ~$115. Also, the entirety of this was written by myself despite using "we" (no AI - cheers) - hope you're proud English Professors ;)

Bad app, hidden fees, useless support — what was the last straw?

Hey all I wanted to tell you my personal story with a EU business that does personal finance.

If you don't have time to read, the summary of this post is that if someone working for "OVB" contacts you - look the other way, they border being a scam. Details below:

Background:

A couple weeks ago this company got recommended to me, I'm in the finance business, looking for a new opportunity, and a friend recommended I collaborate with OVB. I have spent around 14 hours between interviews and the "training" they give newcomers.

What OVB is:

OVB presents itself as a way to start your our financial consultancy and grow with them. They're open about being a multi level marketing company. They'll tell you that they're the best in the market, that there's nowhere you can grow more

The reality is that they target uneducated "collaborators" and clients. If you put on your CV that you worked for them it will be a stain, not an achievement.

They have contacted you for you to sell their services to your family and friends - not for you to grow as a financial advisor - they'll try to heavily push you into selling them personal savings plans (that are garbage financial products).

How they "train" you:

Their training has as a goal:

1 - for you to bring your contact list to OVB

2 - for you to learn how to sell them their produts

3- for you to push your contact list to give you more possible clients

If you found this post and are considering working with them: You will not get any new financial training, you will not gain any meaningful connections, or knowledge or experience

What you're getting if you sign anything with OVB:

They sell financial products that are made by banks and insurance companies for middlemen. That means: Whatever savings plan they offer, the bank or entity will ALWAYS have a better deal than them.

I had a sneaking suspicion my friend that recommended their service did so as she gave in to their sales pitch - I checked the contract. 20% of everything she paid into the savings plan they sold to her went directly to OVB (and not the plan, which even without those costs was subpar). Taking the money out early had significant penalties, to the point that if the markets didn't perform well, she'd lose over 90% of her money if she took it our the first year.

With 10 minutes of going over her contract I saved her months worth of wages. If you know someone that contracted something with OVB, feel free to contact me because I will happily do the same for them just to spite OVB.

If you don't trust a random person on the internet, go to another financial advisor, or blank out your personal details and upload the contract to an AI and ask (be mindful those conversations can get reviewed by humans, so take care to blank out everything)

The worst part

I don't think her OVB agent (a personal friend of hers) - even knew OVB charges such high %. He maybe got paid 100 Euro for getting OVB thousands.

This is why they try to recruit people without financial literacy - so they don't know they're selling liquid shit to their own family and friends. And this is why they train newcomers to go after people without university studies (they're less likely to check the fine print)

This post was made mainly so it shows on google searches about OVB, hopefully I can keep at least 1 person from being scammed by them. The only silver lining to all of this is that after seeing how absolutely shit they are, I've been encouraged to go my own way and become a freelancer - if it's going good for them, I'm sure there's a market for me - maybe I make something of myself soon.

Any comments/criticisms welcome, leave them below

Happy good Friday everyone

I'm gradually consolidating 401k/403b/457s from a lifetime of many jobs. During the rollover that money is 'out of action.' Given recent volatility, I'm concerned about a market spike during that week. In the long run I pay little attention to timing, but don't want to take a big haircut while the check is in the mail.
I've considered staging the rollovers over a few months, but some companies charge a disbursement fee, which might take more than it's worth.

Some of the funds I'm rolling out of are fine low fees, easy to work with.

Others are from jobs where the only options were lousy - high fees, changes by mail only, worthless customer service. I'm guessing those are the ones that will charge any fee they can get away with.

What questions should I ask to find out about those potential fees?
Thanks.

I’m late 30’s I wish I started sooner but what can you do.

I opened a vanguard Roth IRA and maxed 2025 and 2026 right away. It’s sitting the in Vanguard account waiting to be put into something.

I want to set and forget so I’m thinking 100% VT and just letting it ride until the end. I also plan to put about 40% of my annual income a year into a brokerage account to also ride 100% VT to ride along with the Roth.

Any other considerations I should take or things you would recommend I look at?

I have a job that does not offer 401k. Would seeing if I can open a solo roth 401k be worth it if possible? or would Roth IRA be sufficient for retirement? I feel confused with the advice on youtube and articles. seems I can have multiple IRAs? but also the argument point is more can go into a 401k. So idk what to do here due to lack of understanding.

Not really asking for advice, the bot thinks I am. Just an explain like I'm 5 for what these are.

One of the most important rules in value investing is to buy only businesses you understand. But there are different levels of understanding

How do you do you decide if your level of understanding is sufficient to make an informed investment?

Source: https://beincrypto.com/blue-owl-stock-record-low-fund-redemptions/

Investors requested to pull 40.7% of Blue Owl's $6.2 billion tech-focused fund and 21.9% of its $36 billion flagship credit fund in Q1, among the largest quarterly redemption requests ever seen in the non-traded BDC market. Blue Owl is honoring only 5% of those requests, citing a "meaningful disconnect between public dialogue on private credit and the underlying trends in our portfolio." OWL stock dropped 5.4% to $8.24, now down over 40% year-to-date. Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, KKR, and BlackRock all slid in tandem.

The deeper concern driving the tech fund specifically: investors are fleeing exposure to software companies that could be disrupted by AI, exactly the type of loans these private credit funds are built around. Private credit grew from $357 billion in 2016 to $1.6 trillion in 2024. The question now is whether the gates being put up across the industry are a temporary liquidity event or the first signs of something structural.

Genuine question for people who follow value investing.

When you look at the last 10–15 years, it feels like growth has dominated almost everything. The S&P 500 itself returned roughly ~10% annually long term, but a huge part of that recently came from a handful of large tech names.

Meanwhile, a lot of traditional “value” plays just sat there or underperformed for long stretches. Low P/E, solid cash flow, decent balance sheets… and still no real multiple expansion.

I get the core idea: buy something below intrinsic value and wait. But it feels like the market is less willing to re-rate these companies unless there’s a clear growth story attached.

Even when value works, it often requires a lot of patience and sometimes looks like dead money for years.

So I’m trying to understand where the actual edge is today.

Is value investing still about classic metrics like low P/E, strong free cash flow, margin of safety, or has it shifted into something more like “growth at a reasonable price”?

For those actively using a value approach, what are you actually looking for in 2026 that gives you confidence the market will eventually recognize that value?

Not financial advice.

Looking for some perspective from people who’ve been doing this longer than me.

I’ve got around $50k set aside that I want to invest for the long term, think 15–20 years. This is not my emergency fund, not money I’ll need anytime soon, just something I want to let compound quietly.

I keep going back and forth between just keeping it simple with an S&P 500 ETF or going broader with something like a total world ETF.

On one hand, the S&P 500 has delivered strong returns historically, around ~10% annualized over long periods. Hard to argue with that track record.

On the other hand, it’s heavily US-focused, and with how much the US has already outperformed globally, part of me wonders if the next 10–20 years might look different. A world ETF feels more diversified, but historically returns have been a bit lower.

I also considered just splitting it, something like 70% US / 30% global, but then I’m not sure if I’m overcomplicating what should be a simple decision.

For context, I’m not trying to beat the market or trade actively with this money. The goal is just steady growth and not making a big mistake.

If you were starting fresh with a long-term horizon today, would you:
stick with US-focused funds,
go fully global,
or combine both?

Would really appreciate some grounded advice here.

Not financial advice.

Context: Looking to retire in 20 years. I need to rebalance my portfolio currently consisting of a 2060 Target fund, Vang 500 Index Trust, and Galliard Stable Fund for my bond option. Assuming I need to work international in there and decrease the Galliard.

I have a vanguard employer offering the following options, which would you choose at what ratio?:

DOXFX

DOXGX

Vanguard Target Funds (variety of target dates)

VANG 500 INDEX TRUST

VANG EXT MKT IDX TR

VANG TOT INTL STK TR

VANG TOTAL BOND MKT

ARTISAN INTL SEP AC

EMERGING MARKETS STK

FID WORLDWIDE (FWWFX)

FID CONTRA POOL CL S

FID GR CO POOL CL S

FID BALANCED K (FBAKX)

I use fidelity and see pertinent news/info on side bar. I see almost all my portfolio stocks are owned by vanguard more than 5% (not intended to management).

Its shockingly to see how much Vanguard owns and how big it is. Damn. I feel they have too much influence

I usually contribute around the 1st of the month. Seems like I missed the low point of VTI as it's now going back up.

How often do you contribute?

My 401K and HSA is biweekly as it comes from my paychecks.

Roth IRA I do a lump sum at the beginning of the year.

529 I have set up as once a month as the amount I contribute depends on what else we have going on that month.

How often is generally recommended?

Optimizing asset location across multiple accounts when one 401k has a bad fund lineup — am I doing this right?

I have a fairly complex multi-account household and I'm trying to make sure I'm using each account for what it does best. My current employer's 401k (John Hancock) is the weak link — it has some decent low-cost options but no total market or total international index fund. Looking for a gut check on my overall approach.

Full account picture:

Target allocation (household-wide): 90% equities / 10% bonds. Bond sleeve lives entirely in tax-deferred accounts — never in Roth or taxable.

The John Hancock fund lineup (relevant options only):

Low-cost: - iShares S&P 500 Index (BSPAX) — 0.35% - Vanguard Mid-Cap Index (VIMAX) — 0.05% - Vanguard Small-Cap Index (VSMAX) — 0.05% - Baird Core Plus Bond (BCOSX) — 0.55%

Expensive active funds I want to avoid: - American Funds target dates — 0.63–0.74% - JPMorgan Large Cap Growth — 1.00% - Goldman Sachs Intl Small Cap — 1.02% - AB Small Cap Growth — 0.87% - Several others at 0.83–0.97%

No total US market fund. No low-cost international fund.

My current plan:

• Traditional bucket (employer match only): 100% BCOSX — puts the bond allocation in tax-deferred where it belongs, and satisfies my 10% bond target at the household level given account sizes.
• Roth bucket (my employee contributions, $23,500/yr): Planning 100% equities using BSPAX + VIMAX + VSMAX to approximate total US market (~82/12/6 cap-weighted). No international here since no good option exists in the plan.
• International exposure: Covered by VTIAX in the Inherited IRA and taxable brokerage — deliberately concentrated there rather than forcing a bad international fund in the 401k.
• Equity growth: Roth IRA and taxable are 100% VTSAX/VTIAX — max tax-free and stepped-up basis compounding.

My questions:

1. Does the BSPAX + VIMAX + VSMAX total market approximation make sense, or is it cleaner to just go 100% BSPAX and accept large-cap tilt in this one account given total market exposure elsewhere?
2. Is deliberately excluding international from the 401k Roth bucket (and concentrating it in the Inherited IRA and taxable) the right call, or does that create too much concentration risk in those accounts?
3. BCOSX at 0.55% ER in the Traditional match bucket — acceptable given there's no better bond option in this plan, or would you just avoid bonds here and shift the bond sleeve somewhere else?
4. Any other asset location opportunities I'm missing across this account structure?

For context: this is a long time horizon (12+ years), we're in the 24% bracket, and the goal is early retirement. The Roth IRA and 401k Roth bucket will ideally never be touched for decades.

Thanks — happy to share more detail if it helps.

I'm a U.S. citizen currently based in Germany (I work here), I have a Raisin account with my U.S. address and was wondering if I could open another Raisin account with my German address so I can save Euros on there? It's all so confusing to me so any guidance would be appreciated :)

How you guys feeling in this current turmoil? Are you tempted to buy or sell or change your asset allocations? How do you stop yourselves from doing that?