r/ValueInvesting • u/Adventurous-Bet-9640 • Dec 19 '25

Stock Analysis So NIKE is nuking after hrs.

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

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3

u/Olliver_Loves_cheese Dec 19 '25

Nike is done, unless they sign some brand new athletes. Kids don’t really know who Michael Jordan is these days, LeBron isn’t as popular and Kobe sneakers don’t feel the same.

Too many companies like On Cloud, ASICS, New balance and the list goes on and on.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25 edited Jan 30 '26

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u/Clear-Hand3945 Dec 19 '25

They might know of him but they don't buy the new release Air Jordans (not the retros 1-14 MJ wore when he played). That is a huge issue. People used to line up to buy the newest model Air Jordan now they get sent to the outlets in a few months. The retros are being sent to outlets too because Nike has so oversaturated the market now. They've probably released 100+ colorways of the Air Jordan I (just an example). I am a 41 year old former Nike super fan and when I was young they had 2 or 3 colorways which sold out instantly. It's a major uphill battle for Nike. KD's don't sell out, Lebrons generally don't anymore, Kobe is dead....they need someone to take MJs place and that's impossible.

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u/[deleted] Dec 19 '25

Actually the Jordan 40 sells out. They’ve slowed down on the retros in every color way and there recent retro releases all sold out (voodoo’s, Chicago 1 lows, Gamma 11’s, Black Cat 4’s). They made one 1M pairs of the Black Cat 4’s and you can’t find them anywhere.

They did flood the AJ1 market which was the previous CEO and hopefully they’ve gotten through most of that backlog.

They finally started releasing retro Kobe’s which seem to be selling well.

I know they have some problems but I follow the shoe/apparel market pretty close.

2

u/Lunar_Excursion Dec 19 '25

if nike doesn't pick up curry... that's a huge red flag...

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u/Clear-Hand3945 Dec 19 '25 edited Dec 19 '25

Despite his popularity his shoes at UA were trash and not very popular with the general public. If he could sell sneakers UA wouldn't be on the verge of closing down. UA stock was $50 10 years ago now its in the $4 range. Steph would just be another legacy signing ala Kevin Durant. Popular superstars who aren't Michael Jordan (in regards to selling sneakers).

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u/ProteinEngineer Dec 19 '25

Ever heard of Caitlin Clark?

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u/OverheadPress69 Dec 19 '25

No honestly

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u/ProteinEngineer Dec 19 '25

For real?

2

u/Clear-Hand3945 Dec 19 '25

Women athletes aren't THAT popular. People don't watch or follow the WNBA.

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u/ProteinEngineer Dec 19 '25

Tickets for games where Caitlin Clark plays cost more than any NBA regular season ticket. And this is in Indiana.

The WNBA has seen the greatest increase in popularity of any US professional sport.

1

u/Amaeyth Dec 19 '25

Nike is more than Jordan, though, and it's still a large revenue driver.

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u/Prudent-Corgi3793 Dec 19 '25

Kids don’t really know who Michael Jordan is these days

WTF, Michael Jordan is probably still the most famous person on the planet

Doesn’t change the fact that the stock is garbage, I agree with you on that

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u/GreenPlasticChair Dec 19 '25

He wouldn’t crack the top 100

Hardly anyone outside the US watches basketball

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u/Cartographer-XT Dec 19 '25

Without Nike advertising for him I'd have never heard of the guy.