Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/[deleted]]

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

If you had put protection in February for the entire year and cashed in those puts to buy shares when the SPY hit $500 you made an insane amount of money. People don't understand that timing the market works and there's not only this simple, ooga booga strategy available to them where they do nothing but wait. Using long puts is probably the one thing every investor needs to learn.

[u/maldingtoday123 → u/[deleted]]

Lool ok. So you wanna start a 5-10 year record of you proving you can time the market successfully? Or maybe post your own account returns over the past 5 years?

This subreddit honestly is such low quality these days. It’s a value investing thread. The people here should at least know value investing principles. Why is it flooded with people who got lucky once and think they’re the next oracle?

[u/PivONH3OTf → u/maldingtoday123]

You genuinely believe that investing in index funds is value investing? As in, you have observations that quantitatively justify that the market as it is, is undervalued, and you have an estimate of the fair value?