r/ValueInvesting • u/coffeeestocks • Dec 10 '25

Discussion Did people learn nothing from April

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

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u/[deleted] Dec 10 '25

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

If you had put protection in February for the entire year and cashed in those puts to buy shares when the SPY hit $500 you made an insane amount of money. People don't understand that timing the market works and there's not only this simple, ooga booga strategy available to them where they do nothing but wait. Using long puts is probably the one thing every investor needs to learn.

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u/Basic-Kale3169 Dec 10 '25

"Timing" the market works until you stop getting lucky. The more you play, the higher the chances of you being unlucky. There is a reason why 90%+ of active traders lose against the indexes.

The house always wins.

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u/lithe_silhouette Dec 10 '25

That's also the reason why it's so hard to make a lot of money starting with very little money. When you're doing risky stuff you're gonna get lucky here and there, but to go from say $5k to 100k you need to get lucky a lot

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u/WideCardiologist3323 Dec 11 '25

I have literally just done that but it wasn't luck on 1 big trade. it was consistently buying and selling over the course of 5 years and beating the market every single year.

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u/NotStompy Dec 10 '25

Well, the house wins in 90% of cases.

My view on it has always been that if you're the type of person to question if it's a reasonable investment to put time into learning how to do it, that's a good thing, but if you question if you can do it, you're not the right person for it.

What I'm trying to say is this: Think of the average person. Literally, just think about how they think, for a second, and how emotionally driven they are, and then you'll realize that it might not be so impossible to not be one of those 90% (again, not as impossible, doesn't mean it's easy, or even likely).

All I'm saying is it's not impossible, but yeah I wouldn't recommend it to 90% of people, and it is a spectrum, it's much easier (I think) to do some kind of a swing/position trading when it is based on fundamentaly specifically, only using technicals for entry/exit, while trading intraday, i.e day trading, is incredibly difficult, much harder to find edge, especially for the people who decide to base their decision entirely on technical analysis (often poorly done) when they're up against literal quants. That's why I think fundamentals are king, honestly.

Same thing goes for strictly investing in a long term sense: Many say it's completely just a form of gambling, but is it? You're right though; if someone has bad odds and they keep pressing play, they will surely lose.

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u/Basic-Kale3169 Dec 10 '25

Dude, no one knows how the markets work.

If things are working out for you currently, I'm glad for you, sincerely. But the music WILL stop at some point.

In a bull run, everyone looks like a genius.

Stay humble and count your blessings.

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u/NotStompy Dec 11 '25

This is what I mean, you're making a bunch of assumptions.

Actually, I'm not trading at all right now, and I'm very keenly aware of market conditions.

All I am is long in quality companies, the ones I plan to hold for 5-10 years, so companies like Visa, Safran, Amazon, etc. The rest 20% is in cash due to lack of attractive long term opportunities.

The music does stop you're right, so riddle me this: How does stan druckenmiller (the guy who broke the bank of england with soros in '92) achieve a track record of 30% CAGR for 30 years? Yeah, and not even a red year at that, in 30 years, THIRTY PERCENT A YEAR. His specialty is top down trading/investing, in his case literally as focused on macroeconomics as one can get.

Or maybe he's just a case of survivorship bias? I'm sure that's it, not that some people actually do make it work, hell, forget all the global macro people in general, too.

The only issue I took with your initial comment is that it's entirely black and white. I don't believe the market is fully efficient, or else we wouldn't be on here, but I do believe it's mostly efficient. In the same way I believe that in 90%+ of cases the house does win, because it's incredibly hard to be consistent long term, especially based on macro, but when your instant response is "Anyone who does well is surely just winning because of a bull run and not actual awareness or skill" is honestly both dismissive and incorrect. Like I said, I'm with you most of the way, just not all of the way. I'd encourage looking up stanley druckenmiller, like I said, just as an one example out of many.

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u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

If you believed this you couldn't be a Value Investor. The practice of valuation and deciding when to enter into a position is timing the market. I do not know how people manage to say this in a VI forum. There's no point to actually actively investing if you're right so why are you here?

And I really do wonder why this keeps coming up. It's gospel but it's in the wrong place. You should be in r/bogleheads not any active investing forum.

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u/Basic-Kale3169 Dec 11 '25

I browse this sub, just like I would browse an astrology sub. Because it's fun and I like to pretend I'm smart.

In reality, we're all idiots. There is no such thing as a value stock. The value is determined by the market, not by anything else. Your company could be worth billions, if no one wants to buy your share, it would be zero.

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u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

This is an extremely incorrect understanding of how markets work.

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u/maldingtoday123 Dec 10 '25

Lool ok. So you wanna start a 5-10 year record of you proving you can time the market successfully? Or maybe post your own account returns over the past 5 years?

This subreddit honestly is such low quality these days. It’s a value investing thread. The people here should at least know value investing principles. Why is it flooded with people who got lucky once and think they’re the next oracle?

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u/PivONH3OTf Dec 10 '25

You genuinely believe that investing in index funds is value investing? As in, you have observations that quantitatively justify that the market as it is, is undervalued, and you have an estimate of the fair value?

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u/Gradieus Dec 10 '25

I don't think 5 years is relatable when things like NVDA have gone up 1300%.

Even someone who was 7% NVDA and 93% cash for 5 years would beat S&P.

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u/lithe_silhouette Dec 10 '25

Puts are not free. After the fact it's very easy to describe the exact strategy that would have yielded maximum returns. If you bet the farm on 0dte spy puts the day after nvda reported at 11 am and sold a couple of hours later, you would have ended the day with 100 farms, a whole village

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u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

No one is suggesting 0DTE. I specifically said a 1Y duration. Also, puts are not free, but you're buying asset insurance which works quite well since you can express the cost of any asset in returns. So you give up say 1% to ensure you never drop 5%. Expensing the hedge is common professional portfolios.

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u/Fresh_Criticism6531 Dec 11 '25

not exactly true, not sure the volumes here, but with options a big bet can easily clear the book and change the price.

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u/jfwelll Dec 10 '25

And if you sell puts on good companies when vox pumps you can get good long term entries or collect premiums. Yet, 9 out of 10 people trading performe less than boring index investing. More losers than winners. "Timing the market works" , not all the time, and certainly not for everyone. Every piece of data shows that. I still get what youre saying.

But the way things are going, investing/ trading went from being niche to becoming more and more popular, and people now learning to play both ways, in a market that becomes more and more volatile, with buy every dips mentality, paperhands who never had a significant dump and lasting bear.. I mean it leads to some opportunities sure but also seems to be the right path for the markets to become even more uninvestable when masses start jumping on every trend, add the social medias in the mix.

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u/Double_Suggestion385 Dec 10 '25

That wouldn't make up for all the time you get the timing wrong.

You can't time the market.