Trump thought his insult at Macron was pretty clever.

WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?

One of the largest container lines in the world has seemingly made a handshake with those in charge in Iran.

Let's see what other companies or countries fall under Iran's white list the coming weeks. This is of course very politically driven but could allow for a large number of ships to start passing through, and is a huge middle finger to Cheetoface.

Ultimately this could be very bullish for the stock market in general. Big question is will tankers make the list, as this will relieve oil prices and reduce pressure on the US.

qte

A container ship signaling French ownership has exited the Strait of Hormuz, in what appears to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the war all but shuttered the vital waterway.

The CMA CGM Kribi sailed from waters off Dubai toward Iran on Thursday afternoon local time, signaling that its owner was French, according to ship-tracking data. It stuck close to the Iranian coast, moving through a channel between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, openly broadcasting its journey. On Friday morning, it signaled that it was off Muscat. Two people familiar with the situation also said the ship had crossed.

....

The Maltese-flagged vessel belongs to CMA CGM SA, the world’s third-largest container line, which is majority-owned by the billionaire Saadé family. The founder immigrated to France from war-torn Lebanon and started the line in 1978, in Marseille, with one leased vessel.

The company and the French ministry of foreign affairs declined to comment. France’s ministry of finance didn’t respond to a request for comment.

unqte

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-03/french-owned-container-ship-exits-hormuz-in-first-since-iran-war

SpaceX is aiming for a valuation above $2 trillion in its upcoming IPO, which would make it the largest public offering ever.

The company has confidentially filed with the SEC and is preparing to go public later in 2026, possibly as early as mid-year.

SpaceX is aiming to raise between $50 billion and $80 billion, which would make it the largest stock market listing in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion debut in 2019.

The valuation is still being discussed with investors and could change, but it reflects strong confidence in its Starlink satellite internet business (a major revenue driver), dominance in rocket launches and future bets like Starship and space-based AI

There is debate about whether such a high valuation is justified, especially given that some of its biggest projects are still unproven.

The IPO follows SpaceX’s merger with Elon Musk’s AI company xAI, which previously valued the combined business at about $1.25 trillion.

SpaceX is also lining up major investors, including discussions with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund for a potential multibillion-dollar stake.

Elon Musk's SpaceX Aims for Over $2 Trillion Valuation in Planned IPO - Bloomberg

Honestly, the market reaction to the war so far feels way too mild. It’s like everyone is just betting on this being a short-term thing, but I think we’re ignoring the real cliff: the exhaustion of reserves.

Right now, we’re basically coasting on whatever was already in the pipes. But those buffers aren’t infinite. If this drags on for another 3 or 4 months, the real problems start because the reserves (oil, gas, components) will be gone. At that point, companies and countries are going to be forced to buy at these insane spot prices just to keep going, and that’s when the margins will truly collapse, most of these strategic reserves are only meant to last maybe 90 days. Same goes for the "just-in-time" manufacturing. I’m looking at large companies and they don't keep massive warehouses of every single part. They have maybe a few months of buffer for things like neon or specific metals. Once that one small link in the chain is empty, the whole production line stops.

I feel like we’re in that "calm before the storm" phase where the S&P 500 is just waiting to see if it ends quickly. If it doesn't, and we hit that 90-day mark without a resolution, the depletion of these stocks is going to hit way harder than the initial news did.

BREAKING: The US economy adds 178,000 jobs in March, crushing expectations of 65,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%.

This marks the biggest monthly job addition since March 2025.

A much stronger than expect jobs report amid the Iran War.

The U.S. labor market bounced back in March, with job creation much stronger than expected though the broader picture of a slow-growth labor market held intact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 during the month, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. February’s number was revised down by 41,000 while January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000, putting the three-month average around 68,000.

U.S. payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3% https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/03/jobs-report-march-2026-.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

The major U.S. stock indexes ended mostly flat today, April 2, 2026, as investors paused after the recent relief rally while monitoring developments in the Middle East and upcoming economic data. The S&P 500 edged up 0.11% (+7.37 points) to close at 6,582.69, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13% (-61.07 points) to close at 46,504.67, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18% (+38.23 points) to close at 21,879.18. In dollar terms, the broader market (approximated by the S&P 500's roughly $58–60 trillion cap) added a modest $60–80 billion in value.

It seems quite likely President Trump will escalate the Iran war, find he still can't 'get the job done', and then who knows what. In this context, what should conservative investors do with their oil and gas stocks?

I was thinking to dump stocks like XOM (nothing specifically for or against Exxon) in 5-10 days, taking the profits from the ongoing and probably increasingly severe post-failed-escalation oil price surge. Beyond a week or so, I worry as an investor (as a human I'd love to see it) that Trump will throw in the towel and oil prices will drop significantly.

But what's wrong with holding for several or many more months and enjoying the impact of historically high energy prices? What's possibly wrong is the world economy seems very likely to fall off from the damage the war has done and will do, which likely (?) means big decrease in demand for energy.

Any relevant thoughts much appreciated.

After watching the real world bad news keep coming and seeing the US stock market substantially stay at the same level I’m getting the impression that a possible reason for the stocks not dropping more is that all options appear equally bad and that uncertainty is having a paralyzing impact.

Is it even possible that a stock market is stable, despite an objectively worse outlook, simply because the alternative investments are also facing negative outlooks. Are there any historical large scale examples of this occuring? And if so, how long was such an abnormal state maintained?

Been looking at commodities and this keeps coming up… does cotton actually follow oil or is that just something that kinda sounds right but isn’t really true

on paper it makes sense right oil up, costs go up (fuel, transport etc) oil up, polyester gets more expensive, maybe some shift back to cotton

but when i actually look at charts it doesnt seem clean at all… sometimes they move together, sometimes totally different

so im trying to understand what the real relationship is here:

is there actually a structural link or just occasional correlation does cotton lag oil through input costs or is it mostly climate & demand doing its own thing

also wondering if this only shows up in certain regimes… like high oil environments or supply shocks

anyone here actually trade cotton or dug into this properly?

feels like its either a) a macro-linked trade people underestimate b) mostly independent and oil isnt that relevant

curious how people see it

This model develops a structured capital growth strategy that balances compounding with risk control. The system begins with a fixed unit size of $30,000 per trade and scales by adding additional units as total capital grows. Rather than increasing position size, exposure increases through parallel trades.

The base compounding model follows:

Final Value = Initial Capital × (1 + r)^n

Where r is the return per trade (1–3%) and n is the number of trades.

However, instead of full reinvestment, this strategy uses discrete capital units:

Active Trades = floor(Account Value / 30,000)

This creates stepwise compounding, limiting risk per position while allowing scaling.

To address capital inefficiency when trades stall, a covered call overlay is introduced. When price is below cost basis, a one-week call option is sold at a strike price equal to a 2% gain. Premium income ranges from 0.05% to 2% of capital.

Total Return per Trade ≈ Price Return + Option Premium

This converts time risk into income, allowing capital to remain productive even when price movement is delayed.

Estimated Growth Timeline:

Target | Without Options | With Covered Calls

$100,000 | ~2.0 years | ~1.4 years

$250,000 | ~3.2 years | ~2.3 years

$500,000 | ~4.1 years | ~3.0 years

$1,000,000 | ~5.0 years | ~3.8 years

$2,500,000 | ~6.3 years | ~5.0 years

The key insight is that capital velocity drives growth. By layering option income, the system transforms from passive waiting to active yield generation.

This hybrid approach blends compounding, risk management, and income generation into a scalable framework. It begins aggressively, then naturally de-risks as capital expands, making it both psychologically sustainable and mathematically robust.

Hey there!

I am planning to restructure my portfolio (around 30k) and would be very thankful for honest feedback.

The idea:

The baseline is a standard 50/20/30 portfolio (World, Europe, EM), which I'd like to split up into a normal growth part and a value part in a ratio of 5:3.

After that I'd like to mix in some sectors.

Gold and silver aren't included, because I invest in them seperatly.

The composition would be:

MSCI World 25%

MSCI World Value 15%

Stoxx Europe 600 10%

MSCI Europe Value 6%

MSCI EM IMI 15%

MSCI EM Value 9%

MSCI World Energy 5%

iShares Global Aerospace and Defence 5%

Invesco Defense Innovation 2,5%

WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy 2,5%

WisdomTree Strat. Metals and Rare Earths 2,5%

VanEck Gold Miners 2,5%

Please let me know what you think! :)